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Track market changes through five signals.

Site signal update: 2026/11/05 16:40 JST

Market warning

4.1 / 100

Normal · Market warning score, not a decline probability

Updated
Reference: 2026-11-04 ET

Pullback

5.3 / 100

Normal range · S&P 500 pullback score, not a valuation discount

Updated
Reference: 2026-11-04 ET

U.S. rate pressure

↓ Falling

Direction of the five-business-day change in 2-year and 10-year yields

Observed values
Reference: 2026-11-04 ET

ETF direction

LONG 8 / CASH 10

Model holding / cash direction · Unavailable 2

Check each instrument’s reference date
Reference: U.S. and Japan; bull and inverse products

Sectors

Health care

Leader in relative performance versus SPY

Updated
Reference: 2026-11-04 ET
View data status
U.S. ETFs
Decisions: Partially unavailable / Allocations: Some unavailable
Reference sessions: 2026-11-04 ET
Japanese ETFs
Decisions: Stored finalized decisions / Allocations: Calculated
Reference sessions: 2026-11-05 JST
Warning / pullback
Updated / Updated
U.S. rates
Updated / 2026-11-04 ET
Policy-rate expectations
Data preparation pending
Sectors
Updated

When data is insufficient, only the affected assessment is withheld; no estimates are invented. Reference market dates differ from site update timestamps.

Snapshot generated: 2026-11-05T07:40:15.240841+00:00

LONG means the model holds this product; CASH means it stays in cash. Bull and bear describe the product's direction. These are not recommendations, immediate buy orders or forecasts of future prices.

Market signals

Market warning score

4.1 / 100

Normal · Finalized daily data

A proprietary combination of trend, drawdown and volatility. Not a probability of a decline.

Reference session: 2026-11-04 ETComponents and rationale →

S&P 500 and global-equity pullbacks

S&P 500 5.3 / 100

Normal range · Finalized daily data

ACWI (global-equity market proxy): 8.2 / 100 · Finalized daily data

Measures include declines from previous highs. Not a valuation discount or a probability of gains.

S&P 500: 2026-11-04 ET / ACWI: 2026-11-04 ETPullback components →

U.S. rate pressure

↓ Falling
U.S. 2-year Treasury yield
-9.0 bp
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield
-15.0 bp

Changes over five Treasury business days. Both rising or falling gives that direction; differing directions are mixed. 1 bp = 0.01 percentage point.

Reference session: 2026-11-04 ETObservations and history →

Sector relative ranking

Model ranking by relative performance versus SPY, not fund flows or recommendations.

  1. Health care · one-month absolute return 13.5%
  2. Consumer staples · one-month absolute return 12.4%
  3. Consumer discretionary · one-month absolute return 9.5%
All sectors
  1. Health care · one-month absolute return 13.5%
  2. Consumer staples · one-month absolute return 12.4%
  3. Consumer discretionary · one-month absolute return 9.5%
  4. Financials · one-month absolute return 9.6%
  5. Materials · one-month absolute return 8.4%
  6. Real estate · one-month absolute return 9.8%
  7. Energy · one-month absolute return -0.4%
  8. Utilities · one-month absolute return 6.0%
  9. Communication services · one-month absolute return -6.0%
  10. Industrials · one-month absolute return -1.2%
  11. Information technology · one-month absolute return -12.6%
Finalized daily data · Reference session: 2026-11-04 ETMeasures and evidence →

Model portfolio allocation

Target ETF and cash weights, with each account’s total assets set to 100%. These are model allocations, not actual holdings or amounts to buy.

U.S. ETFs · USD account

Reference session: 2026-11-04 · ET

ETF 52.1%Cash 47.9%

Holdings and target weights
ETF holdingShare of account assets
SPXLS&P500 · Bull 3×14.3%
SOXLSemiconductors · Bull 3×9.4%
FASFinancials · Bull 3×14.3%
SOXSSemiconductors · Bear 3×9.3%
MUUMicron · Bull 2×1.6%
TSLLTesla · Bull 2×1.6%
NVDDNVIDIA · Bear 1×1.6%
Cash retained47.9%

Try an account amount

Illustrative amounts equal the entered assets multiplied by current target weights, including existing holdings. Share counts, fees and taxes are excluded. This is not a profit forecast.

Allocation of 10,000 USD

SPXL
1,433.10 USD
SOXL
939.69 USD
FAS
1,433.10 USD
SOXS
928.72 USD
MUU
159.23 USD
TSLL
159.23 USD
NVDD
159.23 USD
Cash retained
4,787.69 USD

Weights are rounded to one decimal place and may not sum to 100%.

ETFs not held (0% target)

SPXS・TQQQ・SQQQ・TECL・TECS・FAZ・NVDL・MUD・TSLS

Excluded or unavailable: SPCH・SSPC. Not included in the holdings above. See the Japanese signal list for each instrument’s reason.

Japan ETFs · JPY account

Reference session: 2026-11-05 · JST

ETF 30.0%Cash 70.0%

Holdings and target weights
ETF holdingShare of account assets
1570Nikkei 225 · Bull 2×30.0%
Cash retained70.0%

Weights are rounded to one decimal place and may not sum to 100%.

ETFs not held (0% target)

1357

The model does not allocate capital between the U.S. and Japan accounts. Do not add their percentages together. These are saved research-model results assuming adjustment at the next regular open. Check each instrument for execution expiry and update delays.

Account calculations and backtests →

Published ETF universe

Weights are shares of each account's total assets. The U.S. USD and Japan JPY accounts are separate. Unavailable allocations are not zero weights.

SPCH

Reference asset: SPCX · Bull 2×

Unavailable

Required direction data are unavailable.

Price status: Insufficient price history

Available history: 100 trading sessions. Required model history is incomplete.

ETF price or risk data are incomplete. Direction and allocation are assessed separately.

Target weight: Unavailable of the USD account

Reference session: 2026-11-04 ET

Execution: Expired

Price and model evidence →
Full model and backtest details →

SSPC

Reference asset: SPCX · Bear 2×

Unavailable

Required direction data are unavailable.

Price status: Insufficient price history

Available history: 100 trading sessions. Required model history is incomplete.

ETF price or risk data are incomplete. Direction and allocation are assessed separately.

Target weight: Unavailable of the USD account

Reference session: 2026-11-04 ET

Execution: Expired

Price and model evidence →
Full model and backtest details →

How to read the model, tests and data

What direction and model allocation mean

SMA200 is the average price over the preceding 200 trading sessions. Bull products take a holding direction when the reference close is above it; inverse products do so when it is below. LONG is not an order to buy immediately.

Model weights use total assets in each market’s account as the denominator. The U.S. USD and Japan JPY accounts are not combined. Adjustments assume the next regular open; expired orders are invalid.

Each ETF detail page includes closes, moving averages, allocation calculations, CAGR, maximum drawdown, win rate and evaluation periods. Historical results do not guarantee future performance.

Adjustments assume the next regular market open. Expired orders are invalid. Past backtests do not guarantee future performance.

Published snapshot JSON · All backtests