U.S. interest-rate changes
Change over five U.S. Treasury business days
Three-indicator classification unavailable
Only the two Treasury indicators are available. Policy-rate expectations are not connected.
Reference date: 2026-11-04 / Comparison date: 2026-10-28 (U.S. Eastern dates)
These are observed changes that have already occurred, not probabilities of future rate increases.
Expected policy rate
Open the free official CME FedWatch tool ↗
View rate ranges and probabilities for each meeting. Automatic updates to this site's values and charts are not connected.
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Unavailable
- Data status
- Not connected
- Reference date
- 2026-11-04
- Comparison date
- 2026-10-28
- FOMC meeting
- FOMC-2026-12-09
Probability-weighted average of target-range midpoints. A rise in the expected level alone is not described as an expected rate hike.
U.S. 2-year Treasury yield
4.580%
-9.0 bp ↓ Falling
- Data status
- Valid
- Reference date
- 2026-11-04
- Comparison date
- 2026-10-28
- FOMC meeting
- Not applicable
U.S. Treasury daily reference par yield; not a real-time price or exchange closing price.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield
4.900%
-15.0 bp ↓ Falling
- Data status
- Valid
- Reference date
- 2026-11-04
- Comparison date
- 2026-10-28
- FOMC meeting
- Not applicable
U.S. Treasury daily reference par yield; not a real-time price or exchange closing price.
Recent history
Each date shows the change over five Treasury business days. All three charts share a bp scale; missing observations break the line. Policy expectations cover only the same meeting (FOMC-2026-12-09).
Open CME FedWatch ↗. The five-business-day chart is not connected. The official tool's “one week ago” may differ from five Treasury business days ago.
View the history as a table
| Reference date | Expected policy rate (bp) | U.S. 2-year Treasury yield (bp) | U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (bp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Unavailable | +4.0 bp | -4.0 bp |
| 2026-09-23 | Unavailable | +11.0 bp | +10.0 bp |
| 2026-09-24 | Unavailable | +20.0 bp | +24.0 bp |
| 2026-09-25 | Unavailable | +5.0 bp | +16.0 bp |
| 2026-09-28 | Unavailable | +16.0 bp | +28.0 bp |
| 2026-09-29 | Unavailable | +18.0 bp | +30.0 bp |
| 2026-09-30 | Unavailable | +3.0 bp | +18.0 bp |
| 2026-10-01 | Unavailable | -9.0 bp | +6.0 bp |
| 2026-10-02 | Unavailable | +2.0 bp | +11.0 bp |
| 2026-10-05 | Unavailable | -8.0 bp | +7.0 bp |
| 2026-10-06 | Unavailable | -10.0 bp | +1.0 bp |
| 2026-10-07 | Unavailable | -11.0 bp | -1.0 bp |
| 2026-10-08 | Unavailable | -3.0 bp | -2.0 bp |
| 2026-10-09 | Unavailable | -3.0 bp | -4.0 bp |
| 2026-10-13 | Unavailable | -5.0 bp | -10.0 bp |
| 2026-10-14 | Unavailable | +3.0 bp | -8.0 bp |
| 2026-10-15 | Unavailable | +0.0 bp | -18.0 bp |
| 2026-10-16 | Unavailable | -1.0 bp | -13.0 bp |
| 2026-10-19 | Unavailable | -3.0 bp | -9.0 bp |
| 2026-10-20 | Unavailable | +0.0 bp | -9.0 bp |
| 2026-10-21 | Unavailable | -1.0 bp | -6.0 bp |
| 2026-10-22 | Unavailable | -12.0 bp | -14.0 bp |
| 2026-10-23 | Unavailable | -5.0 bp | -9.0 bp |
| 2026-10-26 | Unavailable | -9.0 bp | -15.0 bp |
| 2026-10-27 | Unavailable | -9.0 bp | -13.0 bp |
| 2026-10-28 | Unavailable | -14.0 bp | -8.0 bp |
| 2026-10-29 | Unavailable | -4.0 bp | +2.0 bp |
| 2026-10-30 | Unavailable | -13.0 bp | -6.0 bp |
| 2026-11-02 | Unavailable | -9.0 bp | -9.0 bp |
| 2026-11-03 | Unavailable | -9.0 bp | -4.0 bp |
| 2026-11-04 | Unavailable | -9.0 bp | -15.0 bp |
Method, sources and update status
Change = reference-date rate − comparison-date rate. One percentage point equals 100 bp. If the comparison date is missing, the calculation is unavailable; another date is not substituted.
Above +3 bp is rising (upward rate pressure); below −3 bp is falling; values in between show little change. These provisional display thresholds do not indicate statistical significance or explain the cause.
Treasury and FedWatch observation times are not fully aligned. Identical retrieval times do not imply synchronization. Once connected, FedWatch will use daily snapshots at 16:00 U.S. Eastern time. Individual Treasury observation and publication times are unavailable and stored as null.
Latest Treasury observation: 2026-11-04
Last successful retrieval: 2026-11-04T23:15:29.239Z
Last retrieval attempt: 2026-11-04T23:15:28.549Z
Retrieval status: Valid
Calculated at: 2026-11-05T15:01:14.091Z
Retrieval runs after 18:15 America/New_York on business days. Publication delays and network failures trigger up to three retries at least 15 minutes apart through the existing scheduler. PC downtime or network failures may delay updates. On weekends and holidays, the previous business day's value is not saved again as a new observation.
- U.S. Treasury: methodology and publication timing
- U.S. Treasury: daily interest-rate XML specification
- CME FedWatch API (access and redistribution permissions must be checked)
- CME FedWatch methodology
- Treasury business days: SIFMA holiday schedule
The verified calendar covers 2021–2026. Classification is withheld outside this range.
Individual and composite scores are off by default. Policy-expectation scores are in preparation. Scores represent ranks relative to historical rate changes, not probabilities of future increases. A score of 50 does not mean zero change.
Calculation rates-v1 / Classification directions-3bp-v1 / Calendar sifma-2021-2026-v1
Published snapshot JSON