THE SIGNAL / SECTOR INTELLIGENCE
AI semiconductor comparison
Compare growth, cash generation and AI dependence. Know what to watch next.
Updated · Financials and consensus refreshed on schedule
SEMICONDUCTOR SCOREBOARD
Start with the differences
Ordered by AI exposure. No composite score or overall ranking.
NVDA NVIDIA
FY2027 Q2 · 2026-07-26 · USD
- AI exposure
- Very highQualitative
- Revenue growth
- 106%
- Operating margin
- 66.2%*
- Forward P/E
- 12.6×*
- Earnings momentum
- Estimates / actuals
- AI resilience
- LowQualitative
AVGO Broadcom
FY2026 Q3 · 2026-08-02 · USD
- AI exposure
- Very highQualitative
- Revenue growth
- 86%
- Operating margin
- 53.9%*
- Forward P/E
- 16.7×*
- Earnings momentum
- Estimates / actuals
- AI resilience
- MediumQualitative
AMD AMD
FY2026 Q2 · 2026-06-27 · USD
- AI exposure
- HighQualitative
- Revenue growth
- 50%
- Operating margin
- 17%
- Forward P/E
- 30.0×*
- Earnings momentum
- Estimates / actuals
- AI resilience
- LowQualitative
TSM TSMC
2026 Q3 · 2026-09-30 · TWD
- AI exposure
- HighQualitative
- Revenue growth
- 50.9%
- Operating margin
- 58.7%
- Forward P/E
- 16.9×*
- Earnings momentum
- Estimates / actuals
- AI resilience
- MediumQualitative
ASML ASML
2026 Q3 · 2026-09-30 · EUR
- AI exposure
- HighQualitative
- Revenue growth
- 55.2%*
- Operating margin
- 44.4%
- Forward P/E
- 23.2×*
- Earnings momentum
- Estimates / actuals
- AI resilience
- MediumQualitative
MU Micron
FY2026 Q4 · 2026-09-03 · USD
- AI exposure
- HighQualitative
- Revenue growth
- 379.3%*
- Operating margin
- 80.7%
- Forward P/E
- 3.8×*
- Earnings momentum
- Estimates / actuals
- AI resilience
- LowQualitative
AMAT Applied Materials
FY2026 Q3 · 2026-07-26 · USD
- AI exposure
- HighQualitative
- Revenue growth
- 25%
- Operating margin
- 33.7%
- Forward P/E
- 19.9×*
- Earnings momentum
- Estimates / actuals
- AI resilience
- MediumQualitative
ARM Arm
FY2027 Q1 · 2026-06-30 · USD
- AI exposure
- MediumQualitative
- Revenue growth
- 22%
- Operating margin
- 7.1%
- Forward P/E
- 62.7×*
- Earnings momentum
- Estimates / actuals
- AI resilience
- MediumQualitative
QCOM Qualcomm
FY2026 Q3 · 2026-06-28 · USD
- AI exposure
- MediumQualitative
- Revenue growth
- -4%
- Operating margin
- 16.3%*
- Forward P/E
- 13.5×*
- Earnings momentum
- Estimates / actuals
- AI resilience
- HighQualitative
INTC Intel
2026 Q3 · 2026-09-26 · USD
- AI exposure
- MediumQualitative
- Revenue growth
- 21%
- Operating margin
- 15.3%
- Forward P/E
- 32.4×*
- Earnings momentum
- Estimates / actuals
- AI resilience
- LowQualitative
WHAT CHANGED / WHY / WHAT NEXT
Current signals: growth is not cash
Who converts growth into cash?
ASML FCF margin: 97.3%（2026 Q3）。Highest among 10 covered companies; collection timing, taxes and definitions matter.
Growth × FCF →Check acceleration
NVDA: ↑ Accelerating (+21.0pt)。Change in revenue YoY versus the prior quarter. Two consecutive quarters, not a four-quarter trend.
History and gaps →What could weaken the picture?
Even stable AI demand can coexist with changes in pricing, supply and investment burden. Track GPU demand, memory pricing and equipment orders separately.
Slowdown transmission →SUPPLY / DEMAND BALANCE
Where is semiconductor supply falling short?
Demand and supply both grow, but the timing of balance differs by product and process.
Official disclosures reviewed: 2026-11-04 · Qualitative map including company outlooks; reviewed separately from automated financial updates.
This schematic shows process relationships. Arrow size does not encode volume or rank bottleneck severity.
Comparing three years
Select a cell for evidence. Colors classify disclosures, not shortage percentages.
First output ≠ immediate balance
- 2027
Micron: Singapore HBM packaging in early 2027; ID1 initial output in mid-2027.
- 2028
Micron: ID2/Japan DRAM in late 2028; Singapore NAND in H2 2028.
- After ramp starts
Management says meaningful supply follows initial output by several quarters. Opening dates do not establish balance.
Demand, supply and what to watch
HBM
- Demand
- AI demand; most 2027 supply contracted.
- Supply
- Singapore packaging starts in early 2027.
- Interpretation
- Contract coverage is not an industry shortage ratio.
Micron FQ4 2026 earnings deck ↗ · 2026-09-30
Micron FQ1 2026 earnings deck ↗ · 2025-12-17
DRAM
- Demand
- Demand growth outpaces supply.
- Supply
- ID1: mid-2027; ID2/Japan: late 2028.
- Interpretation
- Initial output precedes meaningful volume.
Micron FQ4 2026 earnings deck ↗ · 2026-09-30
NAND / SSD
- Demand
- Data-center SSD demand expands.
- Supply
- New Singapore output: H2 2028.
- Interpretation
- Shipment growth is not a supply-demand gap.
Micron FQ4 2026 earnings deck ↗ · 2026-09-30
Leading-edge logic
- Demand
- TSMC reports demand above capacity.
- Supply
- Expansion focuses on advanced nodes.
- Interpretation
- Do not extrapolate to all nodes or fabs.
TSMC Q3 2026 earnings call ↗ · 2026-10-15
Advanced packaging
- Demand
- Customers move to larger packages.
- Supply
- 5x reticle in production; 9x/14x in development.
- Interpretation
- Technology progress does not measure a supply gap.
TSMC Q3 2026 earnings call ↗ · 2026-10-15
TSMC page 12: technology and capacity strategy, not a disclosed shortage ratio.
Lithography
- Demand
- Some customers express 2029–2030 order interest.
- Supply
- Planned expansion still falls short in 2027–2028.
- Interpretation
- Equipment supply is not chip output.
ASML Q3 2026 results ↗ · 2026-10-14
Mature nodes / commodity chips
- Demand
- Further end-market evidence needed.
- Supply
- Do not extrapolate leading-edge tightness.
- Interpretation
- Unverified does not mean balanced or surplus.
Issuer outlooks are not established market-wide facts. DRAM includes HBM; do not add them. No shortage percentages or overall market scores are calculated without comparable measured demand and supply.
HARDWARE PRICE MONITOR
How are memory, CPU and GPU prices moving?
Long term: monthly memory and SSD prices
The default is two years. Coverage starts in November 2019 for DDR4, June 2022 for DDR5, August 2022 for NVMe SSDs and July 2021 for SATA SSDs.
Showing two years of monthly prices
These are monthly median price levels with a changing product mix, not like-for-like inflation rates. Historical coverage includes products still sold in 2026. This series is not spliced into the daily indices below.
DDR5
2026-10USD / GB · monthly median
2025-11 — 2026-10 · 12 observed months
2024-11 — 2026-10 · 24 observed months
2022-06 — 2026-10 · 53 observed months · Available history only
2022-06 — 2026-10 · 53 observed months
Monthly observations
| Month | Median | Products |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 18.3109 | 82 |
| 2026-09 | 17.4686 | 82 |
| 2026-08 | 15.7028 | 82 |
| 2026-07 | 15.1559 | 84 |
| 2026-06 | 14.7005 | 78 |
| 2026-05 | 14.7028 | 74 |
| 2026-04 | 14.4528 | 75 |
| 2026-03 | 14.3438 | 69 |
| 2026-02 | 13.7346 | 66 |
| 2026-01 | 13.2652 | 62 |
| 2025-12 | 11.8119 | 63 |
| 2025-11 | 7.9545 | 64 |
| 2025-10 | 4.7244 | 66 |
| 2025-09 | 3.5507 | 62 |
| 2025-08 | 3.4295 | 57 |
| 2025-07 | 3.1559 | 54 |
| 2025-06 | 3.3202 | 53 |
| 2025-05 | 3.1248 | 54 |
| 2025-04 | 3.1850 | 62 |
| 2025-03 | 3.0584 | 50 |
| 2025-02 | 3.0389 | 58 |
| 2025-01 | 3.2184 | 48 |
| 2024-12 | 3.2811 | 45 |
| 2024-11 | 3.0931 | 45 |
| 2024-10 | 3.2497 | 49 |
| 2024-09 | 3.1881 | 47 |
| 2024-08 | 3.2132 | 42 |
| 2024-07 | 3.3983 | 42 |
| 2024-06 | 3.5050 | 43 |
| 2024-05 | 3.4606 | 46 |
| 2024-04 | 3.5728 | 42 |
| 2024-03 | 3.6205 | 42 |
| 2024-02 | 3.5934 | 36 |
| 2024-01 | 3.5936 | 35 |
| 2023-12 | 3.3994 | 41 |
| 2023-11 | 3.2888 | 34 |
| 2023-10 | 3.2809 | 42 |
| 2023-09 | 3.3072 | 30 |
| 2023-08 | 3.3396 | 36 |
| 2023-07 | 3.4373 | 38 |
| 2023-06 | 3.5350 | 32 |
| 2023-05 | 3.9452 | 31 |
| 2023-04 | 4.2493 | 31 |
| 2023-03 | 4.5934 | 29 |
| 2023-02 | 4.8434 | 26 |
| 2023-01 | 5.3070 | 26 |
| 2022-12 | 6.1912 | 22 |
| 2022-11 | 6.2025 | 19 |
| 2022-10 | 7.3050 | 18 |
| 2022-09 | 7.2984 | 16 |
| 2022-08 | 6.5594 | 10 |
| 2022-07 | 6.7344 | 11 |
| 2022-06 | 6.9916 | 10 |
DDR4
2026-10USD / GB · monthly median
2025-11 — 2026-10 · 12 observed months
2024-11 — 2026-10 · 24 observed months
2021-11 — 2026-10 · 60 observed months
2019-11 — 2026-10 · 84 observed months
Monthly observations
| Month | Median | Products |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 7.3125 | 34 |
| 2026-09 | 7.2039 | 34 |
| 2026-08 | 6.8609 | 35 |
| 2026-07 | 6.8744 | 35 |
| 2026-06 | 7.2919 | 31 |
| 2026-05 | 7.8106 | 25 |
| 2026-04 | 7.9953 | 27 |
| 2026-03 | 8.0744 | 28 |
| 2026-02 | 7.7261 | 28 |
| 2026-01 | 7.0606 | 29 |
| 2025-12 | 6.0153 | 31 |
| 2025-11 | 5.1244 | 28 |
| 2025-10 | 3.6714 | 28 |
| 2025-09 | 2.5934 | 27 |
| 2025-08 | 2.6784 | 23 |
| 2025-07 | 2.3803 | 22 |
| 2025-06 | 2.0728 | 28 |
| 2025-05 | 1.7105 | 22 |
| 2025-04 | 1.7494 | 17 |
| 2025-03 | 1.4544 | 11 |
| 2025-02 | 1.7650 | 21 |
| 2025-01 | 1.9138 | 21 |
| 2024-12 | 1.7494 | 15 |
| 2024-11 | 1.8907 | 20 |
| 2024-10 | 1.9838 | 28 |
| 2024-09 | 1.9852 | 24 |
| 2024-08 | 2.1714 | 24 |
| 2024-07 | 2.1325 | 19 |
| 2024-06 | 2.3434 | 25 |
| 2024-05 | 2.1247 | 19 |
| 2024-04 | 2.2494 | 19 |
| 2024-03 | 2.3281 | 15 |
| 2024-02 | 2.2745 | 16 |
| 2024-01 | 2.2809 | 17 |
| 2023-12 | 2.3547 | 27 |
| 2023-11 | 2.4019 | 25 |
| 2023-10 | 2.3563 | 27 |
| 2023-09 | 2.3719 | 23 |
| 2023-08 | 2.2525 | 25 |
| 2023-07 | 2.3953 | 25 |
| 2023-06 | 2.4338 | 24 |
| 2023-05 | 2.4511 | 26 |
| 2023-04 | 2.3564 | 24 |
| 2023-03 | 2.5933 | 24 |
| 2023-02 | 2.5308 | 20 |
| 2023-01 | 2.9531 | 23 |
| 2022-12 | 3.0934 | 25 |
| 2022-11 | 3.2344 | 25 |
| 2022-10 | 3.3906 | 23 |
| 2022-09 | 3.5211 | 18 |
| 2022-08 | 3.3906 | 19 |
| 2022-07 | 3.5156 | 21 |
| 2022-06 | 3.7266 | 23 |
| 2022-05 | 3.9059 | 21 |
| 2022-04 | 4.0619 | 18 |
| 2022-03 | 4.3744 | 17 |
| 2022-02 | 4.2535 | 18 |
| 2022-01 | 4.0692 | 18 |
| 2021-12 | 4.0898 | 24 |
| 2021-11 | 4.2031 | 23 |
| 2021-10 | 4.4030 | 24 |
| 2021-09 | 4.4763 | 22 |
| 2021-08 | 4.8434 | 19 |
| 2021-07 | 5.0230 | 20 |
| 2021-06 | 5.2602 | 20 |
| 2021-05 | 5.4453 | 19 |
| 2021-04 | 5.8589 | 16 |
| 2021-03 | 5.5152 | 24 |
| 2021-02 | 5.2656 | 23 |
| 2021-01 | 4.6247 | 21 |
| 2020-12 | 4.3744 | 15 |
| 2020-11 | 3.9528 | 16 |
| 2020-10 | 3.8431 | 16 |
| 2020-09 | 3.8275 | 16 |
| 2020-08 | 4.0622 | 15 |
| 2020-07 | 4.2184 | 15 |
| 2020-06 | 4.4448 | 10 |
| 2020-05 | 4.7055 | 12 |
| 2020-04 | 5.0934 | 13 |
| 2020-03 | 4.5619 | 15 |
| 2020-02 | 4.6869 | 14 |
| 2020-01 | 4.6223 | 12 |
| 2019-12 | 4.3370 | 14 |
| 2019-11 | 4.1630 | 14 |
NVMe SSD
2026-10USD / drive · monthly median
2025-11 — 2026-10 · 12 observed months
2024-11 — 2026-10 · 24 observed months
2022-08 — 2026-10 · 51 observed months · Available history only
2022-08 — 2026-10 · 51 observed months
Monthly observations
| Month | Median | Products |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 319.9900 | 81 |
| 2026-09 | 309.9900 | 81 |
| 2026-08 | 287.9800 | 81 |
| 2026-07 | 277.9800 | 82 |
| 2026-06 | 279.9900 | 69 |
| 2026-05 | 325.7600 | 74 |
| 2026-04 | 349.9900 | 71 |
| 2026-03 | 289.9900 | 76 |
| 2026-02 | 286.9700 | 78 |
| 2026-01 | 237.0000 | 77 |
| 2025-12 | 195.0700 | 76 |
| 2025-11 | 147.1600 | 73 |
| 2025-10 | 135.9900 | 71 |
| 2025-09 | 122.9900 | 63 |
| 2025-08 | 129.9900 | 59 |
| 2025-07 | 129.9900 | 60 |
| 2025-06 | 129.5500 | 59 |
| 2025-05 | 139.9900 | 53 |
| 2025-04 | 149.9900 | 57 |
| 2025-03 | 146.9700 | 51 |
| 2025-02 | 132.9900 | 47 |
| 2025-01 | 134.9900 | 46 |
| 2024-12 | 132.9900 | 53 |
| 2024-11 | 132.3400 | 47 |
| 2024-10 | 134.9900 | 49 |
| 2024-09 | 128.9900 | 45 |
| 2024-08 | 138.2400 | 43 |
| 2024-07 | 129.9900 | 38 |
| 2024-06 | 137.4100 | 36 |
| 2024-05 | 124.9300 | 35 |
| 2024-04 | 130.0000 | 31 |
| 2024-03 | 134.4200 | 34 |
| 2024-02 | 140.3100 | 33 |
| 2024-01 | 123.9900 | 35 |
| 2023-12 | 119.9900 | 33 |
| 2023-11 | 115.0000 | 30 |
| 2023-10 | 119.9900 | 29 |
| 2023-09 | 109.9200 | 24 |
| 2023-08 | 102.7400 | 24 |
| 2023-07 | 109.9900 | 23 |
| 2023-06 | 124.9900 | 18 |
| 2023-05 | 125.9900 | 21 |
| 2023-04 | 134.9900 | 19 |
| 2023-03 | 154.7500 | 16 |
| 2023-02 | 138.4900 | 16 |
| 2023-01 | 134.9900 | 15 |
| 2022-12 | 129.1900 | 14 |
| 2022-11 | 169.9900 | 16 |
| 2022-10 | 138.0600 | 10 |
| 2022-09 | 134.9900 | 11 |
| 2022-08 | 149.7400 | 10 |
SATA SSD
2026-10USD / drive · monthly median
2025-11 — 2026-10 · 12 observed months
2024-11 — 2026-10 · 24 observed months
2021-11 — 2026-10 · 60 observed months
2021-07 — 2026-10 · 64 observed months
Monthly observations
| Month | Median | Products |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 237.0000 | 33 |
| 2026-09 | 229.9900 | 34 |
| 2026-08 | 232.4900 | 34 |
| 2026-07 | 229.4100 | 34 |
| 2026-06 | 229.4600 | 30 |
| 2026-05 | 261.2500 | 29 |
| 2026-04 | 234.5000 | 27 |
| 2026-03 | 221.5800 | 28 |
| 2026-02 | 215.4900 | 30 |
| 2026-01 | 209.9700 | 31 |
| 2025-12 | 169.0000 | 31 |
| 2025-11 | 122.0000 | 28 |
| 2025-10 | 104.9900 | 29 |
| 2025-09 | 97.4900 | 27 |
| 2025-08 | 94.9900 | 25 |
| 2025-07 | 99.5100 | 25 |
| 2025-06 | 104.4900 | 27 |
| 2025-05 | 102.2500 | 25 |
| 2025-04 | 100.9900 | 23 |
| 2025-03 | 96.9500 | 22 |
| 2025-02 | 97.3400 | 19 |
| 2025-01 | 98.8100 | 18 |
| 2024-12 | 99.5700 | 21 |
| 2024-11 | 99.9900 | 19 |
| 2024-10 | 102.4900 | 20 |
| 2024-09 | 99.9900 | 21 |
| 2024-08 | 99.9900 | 23 |
| 2024-07 | 105.8800 | 23 |
| 2024-06 | 106.9700 | 22 |
| 2024-05 | 104.4400 | 23 |
| 2024-04 | 101.9900 | 19 |
| 2024-03 | 109.9900 | 22 |
| 2024-02 | 105.9900 | 23 |
| 2024-01 | 104.9200 | 24 |
| 2023-12 | 88.1400 | 24 |
| 2023-11 | 77.2100 | 20 |
| 2023-10 | 67.9900 | 20 |
| 2023-09 | 67.4900 | 20 |
| 2023-08 | 63.9900 | 21 |
| 2023-07 | 65.9700 | 22 |
| 2023-06 | 70.7400 | 20 |
| 2023-05 | 74.3700 | 18 |
| 2023-04 | 87.3000 | 17 |
| 2023-03 | 92.0000 | 15 |
| 2023-02 | 106.4300 | 14 |
| 2023-01 | 109.7200 | 16 |
| 2022-12 | 117.5100 | 13 |
| 2022-11 | 110.9900 | 15 |
| 2022-10 | 134.2800 | 16 |
| 2022-09 | 156.8100 | 14 |
| 2022-08 | 142.4900 | 14 |
| 2022-07 | 149.9900 | 14 |
| 2022-06 | 174.9900 | 14 |
| 2022-05 | 204.5000 | 10 |
| 2022-04 | 198.3700 | 12 |
| 2022-03 | 189.5100 | 13 |
| 2022-02 | 186.4300 | 14 |
| 2022-01 | 193.5100 | 13 |
| 2021-12 | 179.9900 | 13 |
| 2021-11 | 185.1600 | 12 |
| 2021-10 | 170.4300 | 13 |
| 2021-09 | 181.5200 | 11 |
| 2021-08 | 184.6500 | 12 |
| 2021-07 | 203.3000 | 13 |
Source: MemRadar ↗ · Methodology · Source generated: 2026-11-04 · JSON
Vertical axes show unit prices, with individual scales. Missing months break the line. Only completed months are shown.
CPU / GPU: the current comparable daily indices start on October 1, 2026. Their available history is shown below.
Short term: five retail price indices
Five series tracking new, in-stock US retail hardware. Compare price movements using indices based at 100 on October 1, 2026.
Observations are daily US Eastern closes. Retrieved: · Published history starts 2026-10-01
Showing 5 series
Each chart has its own vertical scale; compare values, not slopes. Hover a point for its value. Missing dates break the line.
DDR5
2026-11-01Non-ECC memory kits / modules
$18.06 / GB · Daily median unit price
+3.97% · From first observation in this window
32 observed days · Latest product count: 657
+3.96% · From first observation in this window
30 observed days · Latest product count: 657
+0.86% · From first observation in this window
7 observed days · Latest product count: 657
Daily data and unit prices
| Date | Index | USD/GB | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 103.97 | 18.06 | 657 |
| 2026-10-31 | 103.70 | 17.81 | 665 |
| 2026-10-30 | 103.81 | 17.97 | 664 |
| 2026-10-29 | 103.63 | 18.06 | 652 |
| 2026-10-28 | 103.57 | 17.81 | 651 |
| 2026-10-27 | 103.15 | 17.81 | 645 |
| 2026-10-26 | 103.09 | 17.81 | 655 |
| 2026-10-25 | 103.05 | 17.75 | 663 |
| 2026-10-24 | 103.12 | 17.75 | 671 |
| 2026-10-23 | 103.10 | 17.75 | 674 |
| 2026-10-22 | 103.04 | 17.78 | 664 |
| 2026-10-21 | 102.94 | 17.81 | 647 |
| 2026-10-20 | 102.67 | 17.81 | 641 |
| 2026-10-19 | 101.65 | 17.50 | 643 |
| 2026-10-18 | 101.27 | 17.50 | 647 |
| 2026-10-17 | 101.27 | 17.50 | 650 |
| 2026-10-16 | 101.23 | 17.50 | 659 |
| 2026-10-15 | 101.19 | 17.50 | 657 |
| 2026-10-14 | 101.17 | 17.50 | 644 |
| 2026-10-13 | 101.03 | 17.50 | 646 |
| 2026-10-12 | 100.99 | 17.50 | 648 |
| 2026-10-11 | 100.53 | 17.48 | 642 |
| 2026-10-10 | 100.51 | 17.48 | 646 |
| 2026-10-09 | 100.57 | 17.47 | 655 |
| 2026-10-08 | 100.54 | 17.47 | 661 |
| 2026-10-07 | 100.44 | 17.21 | 652 |
| 2026-10-06 | 100.45 | 17.19 | 659 |
| 2026-10-05 | 101.31 | 17.50 | 648 |
| 2026-10-04 | 101.09 | 17.50 | 641 |
| 2026-10-03 | 100.01 | 17.19 | 696 |
| 2026-10-02 | 99.96 | 17.19 | 694 |
| 2026-10-01 | 100.00 | 17.03 | 693 |
DDR4
2026-11-01Non-ECC memory kits / modules
$9.87 / GB · Daily median unit price
+1.05% · From first observation in this window
32 observed days · Latest product count: 320
+1.09% · From first observation in this window
30 observed days · Latest product count: 320
+0.25% · From first observation in this window
7 observed days · Latest product count: 320
Daily data and unit prices
| Date | Index | USD/GB | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 101.05 | 9.87 | 320 |
| 2026-10-31 | 100.92 | 9.87 | 319 |
| 2026-10-30 | 100.92 | 9.87 | 316 |
| 2026-10-29 | 100.81 | 9.87 | 321 |
| 2026-10-28 | 100.76 | 9.87 | 316 |
| 2026-10-27 | 100.77 | 9.87 | 312 |
| 2026-10-26 | 100.80 | 9.87 | 313 |
| 2026-10-25 | 100.98 | 9.87 | 314 |
| 2026-10-24 | 100.88 | 9.87 | 314 |
| 2026-10-23 | 100.92 | 9.87 | 317 |
| 2026-10-22 | 100.92 | 9.87 | 316 |
| 2026-10-21 | 100.88 | 9.87 | 318 |
| 2026-10-20 | 101.04 | 9.87 | 319 |
| 2026-10-19 | 99.20 | 9.77 | 322 |
| 2026-10-18 | 99.07 | 9.84 | 321 |
| 2026-10-17 | 98.92 | 9.83 | 322 |
| 2026-10-16 | 98.87 | 9.77 | 320 |
| 2026-10-15 | 99.05 | 9.80 | 320 |
| 2026-10-14 | 98.95 | 9.80 | 318 |
| 2026-10-13 | 99.00 | 9.81 | 323 |
| 2026-10-12 | 99.06 | 9.77 | 324 |
| 2026-10-11 | 99.05 | 9.83 | 324 |
| 2026-10-10 | 99.07 | 9.78 | 325 |
| 2026-10-09 | 99.06 | 9.78 | 325 |
| 2026-10-08 | 98.89 | 9.78 | 327 |
| 2026-10-07 | 98.92 | 9.75 | 325 |
| 2026-10-06 | 98.91 | 9.75 | 327 |
| 2026-10-05 | 101.02 | 9.87 | 325 |
| 2026-10-04 | 101.04 | 9.87 | 325 |
| 2026-10-03 | 99.97 | 9.75 | 348 |
| 2026-10-02 | 99.91 | 9.75 | 347 |
| 2026-10-01 | 100.00 | 9.75 | 345 |
CPU
2026-11-01Ryzen / Core / Core Ultra: consumer desktop CPUs
This series does not provide a CPU/GPU dollar price.
-2.29% · From first observation in this window
32 observed days · Latest product count: 90
-2.13% · From first observation in this window
30 observed days · Latest product count: 90
+0.01% · From first observation in this window
7 observed days · Latest product count: 90
Daily data and unit prices
| Date | Index | Dollar price | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 97.71 | — | 90 |
| 2026-10-31 | 97.67 | — | 89 |
| 2026-10-30 | 97.54 | — | 90 |
| 2026-10-29 | 97.89 | — | 91 |
| 2026-10-28 | 97.25 | — | 91 |
| 2026-10-27 | 97.63 | — | 91 |
| 2026-10-26 | 97.69 | — | 90 |
| 2026-10-25 | 97.63 | — | 89 |
| 2026-10-24 | 97.63 | — | 89 |
| 2026-10-23 | 97.58 | — | 87 |
| 2026-10-22 | 97.61 | — | 87 |
| 2026-10-21 | 97.54 | — | 87 |
| 2026-10-20 | 97.56 | — | 88 |
| 2026-10-19 | 97.76 | — | 87 |
| 2026-10-18 | 98.07 | — | 87 |
| 2026-10-17 | 97.91 | — | 88 |
| 2026-10-16 | 98.04 | — | 89 |
| 2026-10-15 | 97.88 | — | 87 |
| 2026-10-14 | 97.88 | — | 88 |
| 2026-10-13 | 97.85 | — | 88 |
| 2026-10-12 | 97.77 | — | 88 |
| 2026-10-11 | 97.65 | — | 89 |
| 2026-10-10 | 97.36 | — | 90 |
| 2026-10-09 | 97.56 | — | 90 |
| 2026-10-08 | 97.02 | — | 91 |
| 2026-10-07 | 97.55 | — | 90 |
| 2026-10-06 | 97.54 | — | 88 |
| 2026-10-05 | 99.02 | — | 88 |
| 2026-10-04 | 99.90 | — | 89 |
| 2026-10-03 | 99.83 | — | 86 |
| 2026-10-02 | 99.95 | — | 87 |
| 2026-10-01 | 100.00 | — | 86 |
GPU
2026-11-01GeForce / Radeon / Arc: consumer graphics cards
This series does not provide a CPU/GPU dollar price.
+9.07% · From first observation in this window
32 observed days · Latest product count: 245
+8.94% · From first observation in this window
30 observed days · Latest product count: 245
+3.76% · From first observation in this window
7 observed days · Latest product count: 245
Daily data and unit prices
| Date | Index | Dollar price | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 109.07 | — | 245 |
| 2026-10-31 | 108.91 | — | 246 |
| 2026-10-30 | 108.97 | — | 247 |
| 2026-10-29 | 107.75 | — | 246 |
| 2026-10-28 | 107.12 | — | 239 |
| 2026-10-27 | 106.71 | — | 241 |
| 2026-10-26 | 105.12 | — | 241 |
| 2026-10-25 | 103.56 | — | 242 |
| 2026-10-24 | 103.69 | — | 246 |
| 2026-10-23 | 103.15 | — | 247 |
| 2026-10-22 | 102.72 | — | 251 |
| 2026-10-21 | 102.63 | — | 250 |
| 2026-10-20 | 102.46 | — | 248 |
| 2026-10-19 | 102.28 | — | 249 |
| 2026-10-18 | 102.14 | — | 248 |
| 2026-10-17 | 102.15 | — | 248 |
| 2026-10-16 | 102.10 | — | 251 |
| 2026-10-15 | 101.77 | — | 250 |
| 2026-10-14 | 101.96 | — | 249 |
| 2026-10-13 | 101.86 | — | 251 |
| 2026-10-12 | 101.73 | — | 252 |
| 2026-10-11 | 101.60 | — | 256 |
| 2026-10-10 | 101.40 | — | 257 |
| 2026-10-09 | 101.22 | — | 262 |
| 2026-10-08 | 100.97 | — | 272 |
| 2026-10-07 | 100.61 | — | 264 |
| 2026-10-06 | 100.30 | — | 267 |
| 2026-10-05 | 100.56 | — | 265 |
| 2026-10-04 | 100.06 | — | 264 |
| 2026-10-03 | 100.12 | — | 264 |
| 2026-10-02 | 100.12 | — | 258 |
| 2026-10-01 | 100.00 | — | 253 |
NVMe SSD
2026-11-01Consumer NVMe SSDs
$199.99 / TB · Daily median unit price
+2.24% · From first observation in this window
32 observed days · Latest product count: 324
+2.47% · From first observation in this window
30 observed days · Latest product count: 324
+0.66% · From first observation in this window
7 observed days · Latest product count: 324
Daily data and unit prices
| Date | Index | USD/TB | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | 102.24 | 199.99 | 324 |
| 2026-10-31 | 101.77 | 199.98 | 326 |
| 2026-10-30 | 101.75 | 199.98 | 328 |
| 2026-10-29 | 101.85 | 199.99 | 327 |
| 2026-10-28 | 101.87 | 199.99 | 331 |
| 2026-10-27 | 101.77 | 199.99 | 331 |
| 2026-10-26 | 101.57 | 199.98 | 336 |
| 2026-10-25 | 100.98 | 199.98 | 342 |
| 2026-10-24 | 100.73 | 199.00 | 341 |
| 2026-10-23 | 100.66 | 196.99 | 343 |
| 2026-10-22 | 100.66 | 199.00 | 343 |
| 2026-10-21 | 100.67 | 197.50 | 341 |
| 2026-10-20 | 100.83 | 197.50 | 343 |
| 2026-10-19 | 100.36 | 195.00 | 346 |
| 2026-10-18 | 100.26 | 195.29 | 336 |
| 2026-10-17 | 100.26 | 195.00 | 339 |
| 2026-10-16 | 100.00 | 195.15 | 338 |
| 2026-10-15 | 100.23 | 196.73 | 338 |
| 2026-10-14 | 100.24 | 197.53 | 340 |
| 2026-10-13 | 100.41 | 199.50 | 341 |
| 2026-10-12 | 100.44 | 198.47 | 342 |
| 2026-10-11 | 100.65 | 199.98 | 342 |
| 2026-10-10 | 100.78 | 199.98 | 343 |
| 2026-10-09 | 100.82 | 199.84 | 344 |
| 2026-10-08 | 100.81 | 199.35 | 342 |
| 2026-10-07 | 100.32 | 195.29 | 345 |
| 2026-10-06 | 100.38 | 195.50 | 347 |
| 2026-10-05 | 101.45 | 199.99 | 346 |
| 2026-10-04 | 102.13 | 199.99 | 343 |
| 2026-10-03 | 99.77 | 195.00 | 359 |
| 2026-10-02 | 100.07 | 195.00 | 353 |
| 2026-10-01 | 100.00 | 194.50 | 347 |
Methodology and source
Source: Pricify. New, in-stock retailer offers, excluding used/refurbished goods and third-party sellers. Chained indices track daily changes for matched products. 100 denotes October 1, 2026; this is not a stock index.
Median unit prices also move with the available product mix; use the index to compare price changes. CPU/GPU dollar prices cannot be inferred from the index. Source delays leave the last observation date unchanged.
Pricify (pricify.ai) ↗ · CC BY 4.0 · Public CSV filtered to five series and redrawn · JSON
ORDERS / CAPACITY / 2028
Is 2028 production already fully booked?
Supply constraints extend into future years in some areas. Public evidence does not establish that all ten companies have sold every 2028 production slot.
Orders and supply evidence reviewed: · Official evidence reviewed separately from automated financial refresh
This is a demand/supply outlook, not a disclosed 2028 firm-order fill rate. Order interest is not accepted backlog.
MU · Scoped agreement26 SCAs / >35% of expected revenue through 2030The >35% figure is multiyear expected revenue coverage, not 2028 capacity allocation. Full 2026 HBM price/volume agreements do not establish a 2028 sellout.
TSM · Plan / targetStrong demand / higher 2026–28 investmentStrong leading-edge demand does not prove all 2028 capacity across nodes and fabs is contracted.
Colors identify evidence types, not utilization percentages or confidence scores. Columns use calendar years; each cell applies only to its stated product or agreement scope.
10 / 10
Scroll horizontally. Select a cell for evidence and scope.
NVIDIA FY2028 largely falls in calendar 2027; it is not relabeled as calendar 2028. Broadcom’s 10 GW is a deployment target; AMD’s 6 GW is a multiyear customer agreement. Neither is company-wide annual capacity coverage.
Ten-company order indicators, contract scope and next checks
ASML · Lithography-system supply
2027–2028: planned supply below demand
Management expects a supply shortfall even with planned expansion; some customers want to place 2029–2030 orders.
All 2028 slots sold? Not established
This is a demand/supply outlook, not a disclosed 2028 firm-order fill rate. Order interest is not accepted backlog.
Next checks
Capacity execution, delivery-year backlog, cancellations and deferrals
- ASML Q3 2026 results ↗Evidence / metric date: 2026-10-14 · CEO outlook; capacity footnote 2
MU · DRAM, NAND and HBM
26 SCAs / >35% of expected revenue through 2030
Signed long-term purchase agreements, some extended into 2031. Management expects tighter industry supply in calendar 2027–2028 than in 2026.
All 2028 slots sold? Not established
The >35% figure is multiyear expected revenue coverage, not 2028 capacity allocation. Full 2026 HBM price/volume agreements do not establish a 2028 sellout.
Next checks
SCA volumes/pricing, HBM yearly contracts and 2028 fab ramps
- Micron FQ4 2026 earnings deck ↗Evidence / metric date: 2026-09-30 · Slides 10–11: SCAs; 16–17: supply outlook
- Micron FQ3 2026 prepared remarks ↗Evidence / metric date: 2026-06-24 · Strategic Customer Agreements: take-or-pay terms
- Micron FQ1 2026 earnings deck ↗Evidence / metric date: 2025-12-17 · Slide 4: calendar 2026 HBM price and volume agreements
TSM · Leading-edge nodes and packaging
Strong demand / higher 2026–28 investment
Management describes a substantial demand/supply gap and expands capacity while checking customer plans, data-center construction and power.
All 2028 slots sold? Not established
Strong leading-edge demand does not prove all 2028 capacity across nodes and fabs is contracted.
Next checks
Node/CoWoS capacity, binding reservations and ramp dates
- TSMC Q3 2026 earnings call ↗Evidence / metric date: 2026-10-15 · Pages 3–5, 8, 13: demand, capacity and investment
NVDA · GPUs/systems; outsourced supply
Supply/capacity commitments $279B
Procurement obligations as of 2026-07-26. Management projects roughly 70% FY2028 revenue growth constrained by supply.
All 2028 slots sold? Not established
Procurement commitments are not customer backlog. FY2028 largely covers calendar 2027; it does not establish a calendar-2028 sellout.
Next checks
Firm customer orders, cancellation terms and power/rack readiness
- NVIDIA FY2027 Q2 Form 10-Q ↗Evidence / metric date: 2026-07-26 · Note 10: supply and capacity commitments; period-end date
- NVIDIA FY2027 Q2 earnings call ↗Evidence / metric date: 2026-08-26 · CFO: FY2028 outlook; AWS deployment
AMD · OpenAI GPU agreement
Multiyear 6 GW OpenAI agreement
The agreement covers multiple product generations, with the first 1 GW deployment starting in H2 2026.
All 2028 slots sold? Not established
6 GW is the cumulative scope for one customer, not AMD-wide 2028 capacity coverage or annual shipment allocation.
Next checks
Annual shipment commitments, deployments and foundry/HBM supply
- AMD / OpenAI definitive agreement ↗Evidence / metric date: 2025-10-06 · 6 GW multi-generation agreement; first 1 GW in H2 2026
AVGO · OpenAI custom-AI collaboration
10 GW / H2 2026–2029 deployment target
Disclosed co-development/supply collaboration and a term sheet for rack deployment.
All 2028 slots sold? Not established
A deployment target is not firm backlog or proof that all 2028 capacity is sold.
Next checks
Conversion to firm orders, yearly deliveries and customer concentration
- Broadcom / OpenAI collaboration ↗Evidence / metric date: 2025-10-13 · 10 GW deployment target; term sheet; H2 2026–2029
AMAT · Equipment and service contracts
Backlog $15.002B (2025-10-26)
FY2025 backlog: systems $7.105B, services $7.141B, other $0.756B. About 31% was not expected to be fulfilled within the following 12 months.
All 2028 slots sold? Not established
Historical annual-report snapshot, not current backlog. It includes services and cannot be converted into 2028 equipment-capacity coverage.
Next checks
Next annual backlog update, equipment/service delivery timing and cancellations
- Applied Materials FY2025 Form 10-K ↗Evidence / metric date: 2025-10-26 · Business / Backlog; backlog measurement date, not filing date
ARM · IP licensing contract metric
ACV $1.732B (FY2027 Q1)
Annualized committed fees for active licensing agreements; excludes future royalties.
All 2028 slots sold? Not applicable to this metric
ACV is neither backlog, revenue nor wafer capacity. It cannot establish 2028 production sellout.
Next checks
Renewals, royalty conversion and customer chip shipments
- Arm FY2027 Q1 shareholder letter / 6-K ↗Evidence / metric date: 2026-07-29 · Pages 8, 10: ACV and definition
QCOM · Automotive design wins
Automotive design-win pipeline ~ $45B
Company design-win pipeline disclosed on 2026-03-19.
All 2028 slots sold? Not established
Design-win pipeline is not interchangeable with non-cancellable purchase orders or 2028 production reservations.
Next checks
Production starts, vehicle volumes and conversion to revenue
- Qualcomm automotive business overview ↗Evidence / metric date: 2026-03-19 · Automotive design-win pipeline
INTC · Data-center CPUs and 14A
DC supply constraints / demand-led 14A investment
Q3 report describes excess demand for some DC products. 14A expansion depends on internal requirements and external customer commitments.
All 2028 slots sold? Not established
Current CPU shortages and process development are not evidence that 2028 external foundry capacity is sold.
Next checks
Binding external contracts, yields and capex decisions
- Intel Q3 2026 Form 10-Q ↗Evidence / metric date: 2026-10-30 · Future Node Development; Industry Supply Constraints
COMPARABLE METRICS / DIFFERENT BUSINESSES
Ten companies, common metrics
Consolidated quarterly results; YoY in reporting currency. Different periods and accounting bases prevent a strict like-for-like ranking. * indicates a calculated ratio.
Scroll horizontally for all metrics; the cards above provide a compact view.
| Company / period | Revenue YoY | EPS YoY | Gross margin | Operating margin | FCF margin | Forward P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDAFY2027 Q2 / 2026-07-26 US GAAP · USD | 106% | 128% | 75% | 66.2%* | 22.2%* | 12.6×* |
| AVGOFY2026 Q3 / 2026-08-02 US GAAP · USD | 86% | 215% | 69.1%* | 53.9%* | 46.2%* | 16.7×* |
| AMDFY2026 Q2 / 2026-06-27 US GAAP · USD | 50% | 156% | 54% | 17% | 13.5%* | 30.0×* |
| TSM2026 Q3 / 2026-09-30 TIFRS · TWD | 50.9% | 68.7% | 66.4% | 58.7% | 31.9%* | 16.9×* |
| ASML2026 Q3 / 2026-09-30 US GAAP · EUR | 55.2%* | 135.9%* | 57.5% | 44.4% | 97.3%* | 23.2×* |
| MUFY2026 Q4 / 2026-09-03 US GAAP · USD | 379.3%* | 1,061.5%* | 86.8% | 80.7% | 60.6%* | 3.8×* |
| AMATFY2026 Q3 / 2026-07-26 US GAAP · USD | 25% | 43% | 50.3% | 33.7% | 25.6%* | 19.9×* |
| ARMFY2027 Q1 / 2026-06-30 US GAAP · USD | 22% | 108% | 97.2% | 7.1% | 53.8%* | 62.7×* |
| QCOMFY2026 Q3 / 2026-06-28 US GAAP · USD | -4% | -23%* | 53.1%* | 16.3%* | 5%* | 13.5×* |
| INTC2026 Q3 / 2026-09-26 US GAAP · USD | 21% | -33% | 43% | 15.3% | 6.4%* | 32.4×* |
AI EXPOSURE
How AI spending reaches revenue
Editorial qualitative assessments based on disclosures and business structure, not estimated AI revenue percentages.
Expand AI exposure evidence for all ten companies
Data Center revenue was $89.0bn. GPU and networking demand directly connects to AI infrastructure; Data Center is not an exact AI revenue measure.
Evidence ↗AI semiconductor revenue was $16.7bn, up 221% YoY. Consolidated results also include infrastructure software.
Evidence ↗Data Center was 58% of revenue, including CPUs and GPUs; this is not a disclosed AI revenue share.
Evidence ↗Advanced nodes and packaging transmit AI demand. An exact AI revenue share is unavailable here.
Evidence ↗Customer AI investment supports advanced lithography demand; this is not a separately reported AI sales figure.
Evidence ↗HBM and server memory connect to AI demand. Memory pricing and AI revenue share are different measures.
Evidence ↗Indirect exposure through advanced logic and memory equipment; an exact AI sales share is unavailable.
Evidence ↗CPU IP and royalties span devices and data centers. A dedicated AI revenue share is unavailable.
Evidence ↗Exposure comes through edge AI, automotive and IoT rather than predominantly data-center capex.
Evidence ↗DCAI revenue was $7.3bn, up 78%. It includes CPUs and non-AI uses and is not an AI sales ratio.
Evidence ↗GROWTH & EARNINGS MOMENTUM
Separate growth changes from expectation surprises
Revenue growth acceleration is not a consensus beat. Revenue/EPS surprise and same-period guidance revisions remain unrated until pre-release expectations are documented.
| Ticker | Revenue YoY history / period | Acceleration | Revenue beat / miss | EPS beat / miss | Guidance revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | FY2027 Q1: 85% FY2027 Q2: 106% | ↑ Accelerating (+21.0pt) | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unrated |
| AVGO | FY2026 Q3: 86% | History unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unrated |
| AMD | FY2026 Q2: 50% | History unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unrated |
| TSM | 2026 Q3: 50.9% | History unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unrated |
| ASML | 2026 Q3: Unavailable | History unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unrated |
| MU | FY2026 Q4: 379.3% | History unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unrated |
| AMAT | FY2026 Q3: 25% | History unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unrated |
| ARM | FY2027 Q1: 22% | History unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unrated |
| QCOM | FY2026 Q3: -4% | History unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unrated |
| INTC | 2026 Q3: 21% | History unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unrated |
CONSENSUS / EXPECTATIONS
What the market expects next
Market consensus aggregated by Yahoo Finance, not company guidance. EPS may be adjusted and must not be directly compared with GAAP actuals above. “Current quarter” is the provider label and may refer to an ended but unreported quarter.
Scroll the table horizontally for revenue estimates and capture times.
| Ticker / Period end | EPS | Revenue estimate | Captured |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA2026-10-31 | 2.47 USD2.34–2.7 / n=44 | 108.98 B USD104.94–116.25 B / n=45 | 05/11/2026, 18:30 JST ↗Captured |
| AMD2026-12-31 | 2.95 USD2.92–2.99 / n=7 | 16.36 B USD13.29–17.48 B / n=33 | 05/11/2026, 18:30 JST ↗Captured |
| AVGO2026-10-31 | 3.84 USD3.69–3.92 / n=40 | 34.91 B USD34.74–35.59 B / n=38 | 05/11/2026, 18:30 JST ↗Captured |
| TSM2026-12-31 | 5.16 USD5.1–5.28 / n=8 | 1,707.8 B TWD1,647.31–1,753.01 B / n=26 | 05/11/2026, 18:30 JST ↗Captured |
| ASML2026-12-31 | 15.39 EUR14.84–16.11 / n=7 | 14.82 B EUR14.41–15.39 B / n=18 | 05/11/2026, 18:30 JST ↗Captured |
| MU2026-11-30 | 38.29 USD35.85–40.47 / n=30 | 61.83 B USD58.07–65.61 B / n=35 | 05/11/2026, 18:30 JST ↗Captured |
| ARM2026-12-31 | 0.55 USD0.47–0.67 / n=29 | 1.52 B USD1.43–1.66 B / n=28 | 05/11/2026, 18:30 JST ↗Captured |
| QCOM2026-12-31 | 2.29 USD2–2.95 / n=25 | 10.56 B USD9.88–11.96 B / n=22 | 05/11/2026, 18:30 JST ↗Captured |
| INTC2026-12-31 | 0.25 USD0.21–0.27 / n=34 | 15.66 B USD15.19–17.94 B / n=37 | 05/11/2026, 18:30 JST ↗Captured |
| AMAT2026-10-31 | 4.06 USD4.02–4.19 / n=25 | 10.3 B USD10.25–10.54 B / n=24 | 05/11/2026, 18:30 JST ↗Captured |
TSMC EPS is USD per US ADR; revenue is TWD. ASML EPS and revenue are EUR. Currencies are preserved; revenue amounts are not ranked across currencies.
All forecast horizons, P/E inputs and historical EPS surprises
NVIDIA / NVDA
Valuation quote: NVDA 200.13 USD · 05/11/2026, 06:00 JST ↗
Next fiscal-year P/E: 12.58× = 200.13 USD / 15.91 USD EPS · Year ending 2028-01-31
| Horizon | Period end | EPS / n | Revenue (billions) / n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter | 2026-10-31 | 2.47 USD2.34–2.7 / n=44 | 108.98 B USD104.94–116.25 B / n=45 |
| Next quarter | 2027-01-31 | 2.75 USD2.56–3.12 / n=42 | 124.48 B USD117.29–138.49 B / n=42 |
| Current fiscal year | 2027-01-31 | 9.31 USD9.01–10.1 / n=51 | 411.65 B USD403.21–426.89 B / n=54 |
| Next fiscal year | 2028-01-31 | 15.91 USD12.85–18.75 / n=52 | 692.21 B USD506.48–778.47 B / n=57 |
Provider historical EPS surprises
Calculated from the provider’s paired estimate and actual EPS, which may be adjusted. Retrieved historical records, not forecasts archived by THE SIGNAL before release. Period ends are provider-normalized.
| Provider period end | EPS estimate | EPS actual | Beat / Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 1.26 | 1.3 | 3.5% |
| 2026-01-31 | 1.54 | 1.62 | 5.3% |
| 2026-04-30 | 1.77 | 1.87 | 5.5% |
| 2026-07-31 | 2.09 | 2.22 | 6.2% |
AMD / AMD
Valuation quote: AMD 488.78 USD · 05/11/2026, 06:00 JST ↗
Next fiscal-year P/E: 30.04× = 488.78 USD / 16.27 USD EPS · Year ending 2027-12-31
| Horizon | Period end | EPS / n | Revenue (billions) / n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter | 2026-12-31 | 2.95 USD2.92–2.99 / n=7 | 16.36 B USD13.29–17.48 B / n=33 |
| Next quarter | 2027-03-31 | 3.06 USD1.84–3.68 / n=35 | 18.18 B USD13.19–20.29 B / n=32 |
| Current fiscal year | 2026-12-31 | 8.06 USD8.02–8.13 / n=8 | 51.2 B USD48.34–52.51 B / n=45 |
| Next fiscal year | 2027-12-31 | 16.27 USD9.6–23.66 / n=49 | 90.87 B USD61.26–120.27 B / n=48 |
Provider historical EPS surprises
Calculated from the provider’s paired estimate and actual EPS, which may be adjusted. Retrieved historical records, not forecasts archived by THE SIGNAL before release. Period ends are provider-normalized.
| Provider period end | EPS estimate | EPS actual | Beat / Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 1.32 | 1.53 | 15.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 1.29 | 1.37 | 5.8% |
| 2026-06-30 | 1.61 | 1.66 | 3.2% |
| 2026-09-30 | 1.94 | 2.09 | 7.5% |
Broadcom / AVGO
Valuation quote: AVGO 325.48 USD · 05/11/2026, 06:00 JST ↗
Next fiscal-year P/E: 16.72× = 325.48 USD / 19.47 USD EPS · Year ending 2027-10-31
| Horizon | Period end | EPS / n | Revenue (billions) / n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter | 2026-10-31 | 3.84 USD3.69–3.92 / n=40 | 34.91 B USD34.74–35.59 B / n=38 |
| Next quarter | 2027-01-31 | 4.1 USD3.7–4.3 / n=36 | 37.02 B USD34.1–38.8 B / n=34 |
| Current fiscal year | 2026-10-31 | 11.67 USD11.5–12.38 / n=48 | 105.99 B USD105.8–106.68 B / n=41 |
| Next fiscal year | 2027-10-31 | 19.47 USD17.47–22.44 / n=48 | 174.23 B USD114.72–200.12 B / n=49 |
Provider historical EPS surprises
Calculated from the provider’s paired estimate and actual EPS, which may be adjusted. Retrieved historical records, not forecasts archived by THE SIGNAL before release. Period ends are provider-normalized.
| Provider period end | EPS estimate | EPS actual | Beat / Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 1.87 | 1.95 | 4.4% |
| 2026-01-31 | 2.02 | 2.05 | 1.3% |
| 2026-04-30 | 2.4 | 2.44 | 1.7% |
| 2026-07-31 | 3.24 | 3.32 | 2.5% |
TSMC / TSM
Valuation quote: TSM 395.75 USD · 05/11/2026, 06:00 JST ↗
Next fiscal-year P/E: 16.89× = 395.75 USD / 23.43 USD EPS · Year ending 2027-12-31
| Horizon | Period end | EPS / n | Revenue (billions) / n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter | 2026-12-31 | 5.16 USD5.1–5.28 / n=8 | 1,707.8 B TWD1,647.31–1,753.01 B / n=26 |
| Next quarter | 2027-03-31 | 5.19 USD4.95–5.4 / n=10 | 1,731.74 B TWD1,623.36–1,862.04 B / n=21 |
| Current fiscal year | 2026-12-31 | 17.49 USD17.18–17.95 / n=12 | 5,582.15 B TWD5,157–5,728.47 B / n=40 |
| Next fiscal year | 2027-12-31 | 23.43 USD21.45–25.87 / n=14 | 7,691.24 B TWD6,879–8,534.42 B / n=41 |
Provider historical EPS surprises
Calculated from the provider’s paired estimate and actual EPS, which may be adjusted. Retrieved historical records, not forecasts archived by THE SIGNAL before release. Period ends are provider-normalized.
| Provider period end | EPS estimate | EPS actual | Beat / Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 2.98 | 3.14 | 5.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 3.33 | 3.49 | 4.7% |
| 2026-06-30 | 3.89 | 4.31 | 10.9% |
| 2026-09-30 | 4.52 | 4.6 | 1.7% |
ASML / ASML
Valuation quote: ASML.AS 1,307.4 EUR · 05/11/2026, 18:15 JST ↗
Next fiscal-year P/E: 23.17× = 1,307.4 EUR / 56.43 EUR EPS · Year ending 2027-12-31
| Horizon | Period end | EPS / n | Revenue (billions) / n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter | 2026-12-31 | 15.39 EUR14.84–16.11 / n=7 | 14.82 B EUR14.41–15.39 B / n=18 |
| Next quarter | 2027-03-31 | 12.94 EUR10.74–14.37 / n=8 | 13.31 B EUR11.62–14.68 B / n=13 |
| Current fiscal year | 2026-12-31 | 41.48 EUR37.12–43.77 / n=25 | 44.49 B EUR43.67–45.16 B / n=35 |
| Next fiscal year | 2027-12-31 | 56.43 EUR37.43–63.89 / n=27 | 57.39 B EUR43.59–61.58 B / n=38 |
Provider historical EPS surprises
Calculated from the provider’s paired estimate and actual EPS, which may be adjusted. Retrieved historical records, not forecasts archived by THE SIGNAL before release. Period ends are provider-normalized.
| Provider period end | EPS estimate | EPS actual | Beat / Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 7.55 | 7.34 | -2.7% |
| 2026-03-31 | 6.62 | 7.15 | 8% |
| 2026-06-30 | 6.95 | 7.58 | 9.1% |
| 2026-09-30 | 10.76 | 11.82 | 9.9% |
Micron / MU
Valuation quote: MU 795.23 USD · 05/11/2026, 06:00 JST ↗
Next fiscal-year P/E: 3.83× = 795.23 USD / 207.76 USD EPS · Year ending 2028-08-31
| Horizon | Period end | EPS / n | Revenue (billions) / n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter | 2026-11-30 | 38.29 USD35.85–40.47 / n=30 | 61.83 B USD58.07–65.61 B / n=35 |
| Next quarter | 2027-02-28 | 42.25 USD39.71–49.79 / n=29 | 67.16 B USD58.85–76.04 B / n=33 |
| Current fiscal year | 2027-08-31 | 176.5 USD161–214.7 / n=36 | 275.51 B USD212.42–313.97 B / n=41 |
| Next fiscal year | 2028-08-31 | 207.76 USD136–335.5 / n=36 | 320.06 B USD224.16–396.62 B / n=42 |
Provider historical EPS surprises
Calculated from the provider’s paired estimate and actual EPS, which may be adjusted. Retrieved historical records, not forecasts archived by THE SIGNAL before release. Period ends are provider-normalized.
| Provider period end | EPS estimate | EPS actual | Beat / Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 3.96 | 4.78 | 20.6% |
| 2026-02-28 | 9.16 | 12.2 | 33.2% |
| 2026-05-31 | 20.69 | 25.11 | 21.4% |
| 2026-08-31 | 31.82 | 33.42 | 5% |
Arm / ARM
Valuation quote: ARM 191.8 USD · 05/11/2026, 06:00 JST ↗
Next fiscal-year P/E: 62.72× = 191.8 USD / 3.06 USD EPS · Year ending 2028-03-31
| Horizon | Period end | EPS / n | Revenue (billions) / n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter | 2026-12-31 | 0.55 USD0.47–0.67 / n=29 | 1.52 B USD1.43–1.66 B / n=28 |
| Next quarter | 2027-03-31 | 0.76 USD0.69–0.84 / n=28 | 1.88 B USD1.79–2 B / n=27 |
| Current fiscal year | 2027-03-31 | 2.23 USD2.1–2.38 / n=39 | 6.06 B USD5.61–6.22 B / n=39 |
| Next fiscal year | 2028-03-31 | 3.06 USD2.65–3.42 / n=40 | 8.27 B USD7.7–9.35 B / n=40 |
Provider historical EPS surprises
Calculated from the provider’s paired estimate and actual EPS, which may be adjusted. Retrieved historical records, not forecasts archived by THE SIGNAL before release. Period ends are provider-normalized.
| Provider period end | EPS estimate | EPS actual | Beat / Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 0.41 | 0.43 | 5.1% |
| 2026-03-31 | 0.58 | 0.6 | 3.6% |
| 2026-06-30 | 0.4 | 0.45 | 11.4% |
| 2026-09-30 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 9.3% |
Qualcomm / QCOM
Valuation quote: QCOM 173.19 USD · 05/11/2026, 06:00 JST ↗
Next fiscal-year P/E: 13.48× = 173.19 USD / 12.85 USD EPS · Year ending 2028-09-30
| Horizon | Period end | EPS / n | Revenue (billions) / n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter | 2026-12-31 | 2.29 USD2–2.95 / n=25 | 10.56 B USD9.88–11.96 B / n=22 |
| Next quarter | 2027-03-31 | 2.32 USD1.98–2.73 / n=24 | 10.84 B USD10.14–11.23 B / n=22 |
| Current fiscal year | 2027-09-30 | 10.16 USD8.77–12.24 / n=33 | 44.81 B USD42.21–47.1 B / n=32 |
| Next fiscal year | 2028-09-30 | 12.85 USD10.4–15.88 / n=23 | 51.84 B USD47.1–58.61 B / n=24 |
Provider historical EPS surprises
Calculated from the provider’s paired estimate and actual EPS, which may be adjusted. Retrieved historical records, not forecasts archived by THE SIGNAL before release. Period ends are provider-normalized.
| Provider period end | EPS estimate | EPS actual | Beat / Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.9% |
| 2026-03-31 | 2.56 | 2.65 | 3.3% |
| 2026-06-30 | 2.23 | 2.21 | -0.7% |
| 2026-09-30 | 2.16 | 2.17 | 0.5% |
Intel / INTC
Valuation quote: INTC 58.27 USD · 05/11/2026, 06:00 JST ↗
Next fiscal-year P/E: 32.4× = 58.27 USD / 1.8 USD EPS · Year ending 2027-12-31
| Horizon | Period end | EPS / n | Revenue (billions) / n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter | 2026-12-31 | 0.25 USD0.21–0.27 / n=34 | 15.66 B USD15.19–17.94 B / n=37 |
| Next quarter | 2027-03-31 | 0.27 USD0.16–0.56 / n=35 | 15.37 B USD13.61–18.46 B / n=34 |
| Current fiscal year | 2026-12-31 | 1.49 USD1.45–1.52 / n=38 | 61.82 B USD58.66–64.37 B / n=46 |
| Next fiscal year | 2027-12-31 | 1.8 USD1.27–2.84 / n=46 | 69.27 B USD62.3–78.82 B / n=47 |
Provider historical EPS surprises
Calculated from the provider’s paired estimate and actual EPS, which may be adjusted. Retrieved historical records, not forecasts archived by THE SIGNAL before release. Period ends are provider-normalized.
| Provider period end | EPS estimate | EPS actual | Beat / Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 81.5% |
| 2026-03-31 | 0.01 | 0.29 | 2,108.7% |
| 2026-06-30 | 0.22 | 0.42 | 94.6% |
| 2026-09-30 | 0.4 | 0.52 | 30.3% |
Applied Materials / AMAT
Valuation quote: AMAT 369.4 USD · 05/11/2026, 06:00 JST ↗
Next fiscal-year P/E: 19.91× = 369.4 USD / 18.56 USD EPS · Year ending 2027-10-31
| Horizon | Period end | EPS / n | Revenue (billions) / n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter | 2026-10-31 | 4.06 USD4.02–4.19 / n=25 | 10.3 B USD10.25–10.54 B / n=24 |
| Next quarter | 2027-01-31 | 4.21 USD3.71–4.77 / n=23 | 10.74 B USD9.6–11.41 B / n=22 |
| Current fiscal year | 2026-10-31 | 12.79 USD12.53–13.05 / n=32 | 34.25 B USD33.17–34.58 B / n=35 |
| Next fiscal year | 2027-10-31 | 18.56 USD16.02–21.77 / n=35 | 46.38 B USD41.2–51.01 B / n=36 |
Provider historical EPS surprises
Calculated from the provider’s paired estimate and actual EPS, which may be adjusted. Retrieved historical records, not forecasts archived by THE SIGNAL before release. Period ends are provider-normalized.
| Provider period end | EPS estimate | EPS actual | Beat / Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 2.09 | 2.17 | 3.6% |
| 2026-01-31 | 2.21 | 2.38 | 7.9% |
| 2026-04-30 | 2.69 | 2.86 | 6.5% |
| 2026-07-31 | 3.39 | 3.5 | 3.1% |
PROFITABILITY / CASH FLOW
Growth and cash generation together
Further right means faster growth; higher means a larger FCF margin. Quarterly working capital can distort comparisons. Automated FCF uses operating cash flow minus capital expenditure, separate from issuer-adjusted FCF.
10/10 companies with both values. Different period ends apply. Forecast P/E and historical EPS growth use different horizons.
The table remains available if the chart cannot load.
Chart data and periods
| Ticker | Period / end | Revenue YoY (%) | FCF margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | FY2027 Q22026-07-26 | 106.0 | 22.2 |
| AMD | FY2026 Q22026-06-27 | 50.0 | 13.5 |
| AVGO | FY2026 Q32026-08-02 | 86.0 | 46.2 |
| TSM | 2026 Q32026-09-30 | 50.9 | 31.9 |
| ASML | 2026 Q32026-09-30 | 55.2 | 97.3 |
| MU | FY2026 Q42026-09-03 | 379.3 | 60.6 |
| ARM | FY2027 Q12026-06-30 | 22.0 | 53.8 |
| QCOM | FY2026 Q32026-06-28 | -4.0 | 5.0 |
| INTC | 2026 Q32026-09-26 | 21.0 | 6.4 |
| AMAT | FY2026 Q32026-07-26 | 25.0 | 25.6 |
RELATIVE VALUATION
How much is priced in for growth?
Forward P/E is price divided by next fiscal-year consensus EPS, not next twelve months. ASML uses its EUR Euronext quote; TSMC uses USD ADR EPS. EPS growth is historical GAAP, so its horizon and accounting basis differ from forecast P/E. EV multiples, PEG and FCF yield remain unavailable.
10/10 companies with both values. Different period ends apply. Forecast P/E and historical EPS growth use different horizons.
The table remains available if the chart cannot load.
Chart data and periods
| Ticker | Period / end | EPS YoY (%) | Forward P/E (×) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | EPS FY2027 Q2 / P-E FY 2028-01-312026-11-04T21:00:01Z | 128.0 | 12.6 |
| AMD | EPS FY2026 Q2 / P-E FY 2027-12-312026-11-04T21:00:00Z | 156.0 | 30.0 |
| AVGO | EPS FY2026 Q3 / P-E FY 2027-10-312026-11-04T21:00:01Z | 215.0 | 16.7 |
| TSM | EPS 2026 Q3 / P-E FY 2027-12-312026-11-04T21:00:02Z | 68.7 | 16.9 |
| ASML | EPS 2026 Q3 / P-E FY 2027-12-312026-11-05T09:15:33Z | 135.9 | 23.2 |
| MU | EPS FY2026 Q4 / P-E FY 2028-08-312026-11-04T21:00:00Z | 1061.5 | 3.8 |
| ARM | EPS FY2027 Q1 / P-E FY 2028-03-312026-11-04T21:00:00Z | 108.0 | 62.7 |
| QCOM | EPS FY2026 Q3 / P-E FY 2028-09-302026-11-04T21:00:00Z | -23.0 | 13.5 |
| INTC | EPS 2026 Q3 / P-E FY 2027-12-312026-11-04T21:00:01Z | -33.0 | 32.4 |
| AMAT | EPS FY2026 Q3 / P-E FY 2027-10-312026-11-04T21:00:00Z | 43.0 | 19.9 |
| Ticker | Forward P/E | EV/EBITDA | EV/Sales | PEG | FCF Yield | EPS YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 12.6×* | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 128% |
| AVGO | 16.7×* | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 215% |
| AMD | 30.0×* | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 156% |
| TSM | 16.9×* | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 68.7% |
| ASML | 23.2×* | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 135.9%* |
| MU | 3.8×* | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 1,061.5%* |
| AMAT | 19.9×* | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 43% |
| ARM | 62.7×* | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 108% |
| QCOM | 13.5×* | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | -23%* |
| INTC | 32.4×* | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | -33% |
AI SLOWDOWN RESILIENCE
How an AI capex slowdown could spread
Qualitative relative resilience, not a stock-loss estimate, default probability or trade recommendation. The lenses are demand concentration, diversification, fixed costs and capex; profit sensitivity is not estimated.
Expand resilience assessments for all ten companies
NVDA Low
Direct AI infrastructure dependence combines with large-customer spending cycles. High margins provide a buffer, not immunity.
Evidence ↗AVGO Medium
Custom AI and networking are directly exposed; software diversifies demand. Customer concentration remains a watch point.
Evidence ↗AMD Low
Accelerator growth expectations combine with competitive investment needs, partly buffered by PCs and embedded products.
Evidence ↗TSM Medium
Multiple customers and end markets provide a buffer; fab fixed costs and capex increase utilization sensitivity.
Evidence ↗ASML Medium
Service and upgrades provide a buffer, while new systems remain exposed to capex deferrals and export restrictions.
Evidence ↗MU Low
Memory pricing cycles combine with capital-intensive manufacturing; current profitability depends on pricing and supply balance.
Evidence ↗AMAT Medium
Process breadth and services provide a buffer, with exposure to equipment-order deferrals and China restrictions.
Evidence ↗ARM Medium
End-market diversification and IP income help; licensing timing, concentration and R&D spending affect quarterly earnings.
Evidence ↗QCOM High
Handsets, auto, IoT and licensing diversify demand. This is resilience to AI capex slowdown, not to a handset downturn.
Evidence ↗INTC Low
Fab fixed costs and process investment combine with PC demand risk; CPU diversification alone does not remove manufacturing intensity.
Evidence ↗Geopolitical risk and stress scenarios
China exposure, export controls and Taiwan concentration are unrated across all ten companies pending comparable evidence. The data interface supports −20% and −30% AI capex scenarios, but revenue sensitivities remain unverified and no impacts are displayed.
FOLLOW THE VALUE CHAIN
Read each result in its supply-chain context
Equipment → fabrication and packaging → compute systems. CPU IP enables design; memory works alongside compute chips. This is a functional map, not a map of verified supplier contracts.
Compute & networking
NVIDIA GPU / NetworkingAMD GPU / CPUBroadcom Networking / Custom accelerators / SoftwareSupply constraints: evidence and watch items
Lithography
ASML expects planned 2027–2028 supply to fall short of customer demand.
Source ↗HBM / memory
Monitor HBM supply, pricing and customer deposits; severity is not rated.
Source ↗Advanced packaging
Watch expansion, utilization and lead times; no quantified tightness estimate.
Source ↗COMPANY DETAIL / WHAT TO WATCH
The numbers to watch at the next report
NVIDIA
FY2027 Q2 · 2026-07-26 · USD · US GAAP
Next checks
Data Center revenue / Gross margin
Expand metrics, risks and next earnings
- Revenue YoY
- 106%
- EPS YoY
- 128%
- Gross margin
- 75%
- Operating margin
- 66.2%*
- FCF margin
- 22.2%*
- Forward P/E
- 12.6×*
- Net margin
- 62%*
- ROIC
- Unavailable
AI: Very high · Resilience: Low
Company-defined FCF deducts equipment/intangible purchases and related principal payments; watch profit-to-cash conversion.
What to watch
- Data Center revenue
- Gross margin
- GPU / networking demand
- China / export controls
- Next-quarter guidance
Guidance at editorial review (2026-11-03)
FY2027 Q3 revenue guidance: $108bn ±2%.
Next earnings: 18/11/2026, 07:00 JST Calendar →
★★★ Attention (editorial)
Broad AI spending read-through to customers and suppliers.
Risks, peer read-through and sources
Direct AI infrastructure dependence combines with large-customer spending cycles. High margins provide a buffer, not immunity.
Geopolitical risk: Unknown — China sales, export exposure and Taiwan concentration require a common evidence review; no categorical risk assigned.
Earnings momentum: Pre-release consensus and comparable prior guidance are unavailable; company guidance is not substituted for consensus.
Peers to cross-check (not established causal effects)
Issuer evidence and market data
NVIDIA FY2027 Q2 results ↗Quarterly results / statements / cash-flow reconciliation
Published 2026-08-26 · Checked 2026-11-03
NVIDIA FY2027 Q1 results ↗Revenue highlights
Published 2026-05-20 · Checked 2026-11-03
Yahoo Finance analyst consensus / retrieved snapshot ↗Next fiscal year 2028-01-31; price 200.13 USD at 2026-11-04T21:00:01Z; consensus EPS 15.9146. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
Yahoo Finance standardized quarterly financials / retrieved snapshot ↗Provider quarter end 2026-07-31; USD; source hash 8707f77d9203aa5a756fae81eb23e2b9d10fe3b6c365207fe350f1b99283a716. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
Broadcom
FY2026 Q3 · 2026-08-02 · USD · US GAAP
Next checks
AI semiconductor revenue / Custom ASIC programs
Expand metrics, risks and next earnings
- Revenue YoY
- 86%
- EPS YoY
- 215%
- Gross margin
- 69.1%*
- Operating margin
- 53.9%*
- FCF margin
- 46.2%*
- Forward P/E
- 16.7×*
- Net margin
- 44.2%*
- ROIC
- Unavailable
AI: Very high · Resilience: Medium
Consolidated results include software. FCF equals operating cash flow less capex.
What to watch
- AI semiconductor revenue
- Custom ASIC programs
- Networking growth
- Software revenue
- FCF conversion
Guidance at editorial review (2026-11-03)
FY2026 Q4 revenue guidance: $34.8bn.
Next earnings: Date unconfirmed
★★ Attention (editorial)
Read-through across several AI supply-chain stages.
Risks, peer read-through and sources
Custom AI and networking are directly exposed; software diversifies demand. Customer concentration remains a watch point.
Geopolitical risk: Unknown — China sales, export exposure and Taiwan concentration require a common evidence review; no categorical risk assigned.
Earnings momentum: Pre-release consensus and comparable prior guidance are unavailable; company guidance is not substituted for consensus.
Peers to cross-check (not established causal effects)
Issuer evidence and market data
Broadcom FY2026 Q3 results ↗Quarterly results / statements / cash-flow reconciliation
Published 2026-09-02 · Checked 2026-11-03
Yahoo Finance analyst consensus / retrieved snapshot ↗Next fiscal year 2027-10-31; price 325.48 USD at 2026-11-04T21:00:01Z; consensus EPS 19.46507. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
Yahoo Finance standardized quarterly financials / retrieved snapshot ↗Provider quarter end 2026-07-31; USD; source hash 8707f77d9203aa5a756fae81eb23e2b9d10fe3b6c365207fe350f1b99283a716. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
AMD
FY2026 Q2 · 2026-06-27 · USD · US GAAP
Next checks
Data Center growth / Instinct deployment
Expand metrics, risks and next earnings
- Revenue YoY
- 50%
- EPS YoY
- 156%
- Gross margin
- 54%
- Operating margin
- 17%
- FCF margin
- 13.5%*
- Forward P/E
- 30.0×*
- Net margin
- 19.9%*
- ROIC
- Unavailable
AI: High · Resilience: Low
Prior-year export-related inventory charges affect comparisons. FCF is continuing-operations cash flow less capex.
What to watch
- Data Center growth
- Instinct deployment
- Gross margin
- EPYC demand
- Revenue guidance
Guidance at editorial review (2026-11-03)
FY2026 Q3 revenue guidance: $13.0bn ±$0.3bn.
Next earnings: Date unconfirmed
★★ Attention (editorial)
Read-through across several AI supply-chain stages.
Risks, peer read-through and sources
Accelerator growth expectations combine with competitive investment needs, partly buffered by PCs and embedded products.
Geopolitical risk: Unknown — China sales, export exposure and Taiwan concentration require a common evidence review; no categorical risk assigned.
Earnings momentum: Pre-release consensus and comparable prior guidance are unavailable; company guidance is not substituted for consensus.
Peers to cross-check (not established causal effects)
Issuer evidence and market data
AMD FY2026 Q2 results ↗Quarterly results / statements / cash-flow reconciliation
Published 2026-08-04 · Checked 2026-11-03
Yahoo Finance analyst consensus / retrieved snapshot ↗Next fiscal year 2027-12-31; price 488.78 USD at 2026-11-04T21:00:00Z; consensus EPS 16.26982. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
Yahoo Finance standardized quarterly financials / retrieved snapshot ↗Provider quarter end 2026-06-30; USD; source hash 8707f77d9203aa5a756fae81eb23e2b9d10fe3b6c365207fe350f1b99283a716. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
TSMC
2026 Q3 · 2026-09-30 · TWD · TIFRS
Next checks
Advanced-node mix / Packaging capacity
Expand metrics, risks and next earnings
- Revenue YoY
- 50.9%
- EPS YoY
- 68.7%
- Gross margin
- 66.4%
- Operating margin
- 58.7%
- FCF margin
- 31.9%*
- Forward P/E
- 16.9×*
- Net margin
- 51.1%
- ROIC
- Unavailable
AI: High · Resilience: Medium
Revenue YoY uses TWD (50.9%), not the reported USD growth (41.2%). EPS uses local shares, not ADRs.
What to watch
- Advanced-node mix
- Packaging capacity
- Gross margin
- Capital expenditure
- Revenue guidance
Guidance at editorial review (2026-11-03)
2026 Q4 revenue guidance: US$52.3–54.3bn; guidance currency is USD.
Next earnings: Date unconfirmed
★★★ Attention (editorial)
Broad AI spending read-through to customers and suppliers.
Risks, peer read-through and sources
Multiple customers and end markets provide a buffer; fab fixed costs and capex increase utilization sensitivity.
Geopolitical risk: Unknown — China sales, export exposure and Taiwan concentration require a common evidence review; no categorical risk assigned.
Earnings momentum: Pre-release consensus and comparable prior guidance are unavailable; company guidance is not substituted for consensus.
Peers to cross-check (not established causal effects)
Issuer evidence and market data
TSMC 2026 Q3 results ↗Quarterly results / statements / cash-flow reconciliation
Published 2026-10-15 · Checked 2026-11-03
Yahoo Finance analyst consensus / retrieved snapshot ↗Next fiscal year 2027-12-31; price 395.75 USD at 2026-11-04T21:00:02Z; consensus EPS 23.4342. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
Yahoo Finance standardized quarterly financials / retrieved snapshot ↗Provider quarter end 2026-09-30; TWD; source hash 8707f77d9203aa5a756fae81eb23e2b9d10fe3b6c365207fe350f1b99283a716. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
ASML
2026 Q3 · 2026-09-30 · EUR · US GAAP
Next checks
EUV / High-NA deliveries / Customer orders
Expand metrics, risks and next earnings
- Revenue YoY
- 55.2%*
- EPS YoY
- 135.9%*
- Gross margin
- 57.5%
- Operating margin
- 44.4%
- FCF margin
- 97.3%*
- Forward P/E
- 23.2×*
- Net margin
- 42.5%
- ROIC
- Unavailable
AI: High · Resilience: Medium
Operating margin comes from the official results presentation. Net income includes non-operating items; quarterly FCF is unavailable.
What to watch
- EUV / High-NA deliveries
- Customer orders
- Installed Base Management
- Gross margin
- Capacity expansion
Guidance at editorial review (2026-11-03)
2026 Q4 revenue guidance: €14.2–15.2bn.
Next earnings: Date unconfirmed
★★ Attention (editorial)
Read-through across several AI supply-chain stages.
Risks, peer read-through and sources
Service and upgrades provide a buffer, while new systems remain exposed to capex deferrals and export restrictions.
Geopolitical risk: Unknown — China sales, export exposure and Taiwan concentration require a common evidence review; no categorical risk assigned.
Earnings momentum: Pre-release consensus and comparable prior guidance are unavailable; company guidance is not substituted for consensus.
Peers to cross-check (not established causal effects)
Issuer evidence and market data
ASML 2026 Q3 results ↗Quarterly results / statements / cash-flow reconciliation
Published 2026-10-14 · Checked 2026-11-03
ASML Q3 2026 results presentation ↗Q3 results summary
Published 2026-10-14 · Checked 2026-11-03
Yahoo Finance analyst consensus / retrieved snapshot ↗Next fiscal year 2027-12-31; price 1307.4 EUR at 2026-11-05T09:15:33Z; consensus EPS 56.43418. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
Yahoo Finance standardized quarterly financials / retrieved snapshot ↗Provider quarter end 2026-09-30; EUR; source hash 8707f77d9203aa5a756fae81eb23e2b9d10fe3b6c365207fe350f1b99283a716. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
Micron
FY2026 Q4 · 2026-09-03 · USD · US GAAP
Next checks
HBM demand / supply / DRAM pricing
Expand metrics, risks and next earnings
- Revenue YoY
- 379.3%*
- EPS YoY
- 1,061.5%*
- Gross margin
- 86.8%
- Operating margin
- 80.7%
- FCF margin
- 60.6%*
- Forward P/E
- 3.8×*
- Net margin
- 69.5%*
- ROIC
- Unavailable
AI: High · Resilience: Low
Company adjusted FCF uses net capex. Excluded from the scatter until a comparable quarterly cash-flow basis is verified.
What to watch
- HBM demand / supply
- DRAM pricing
- Gross margin
- Capex
- Customer deposits
Guidance at editorial review (2026-11-03)
FY2027 Q1 revenue guidance: $61.5bn ±$1.5bn.
Next earnings: Date unconfirmed
★★ Attention (editorial)
Read-through across several AI supply-chain stages.
Risks, peer read-through and sources
Memory pricing cycles combine with capital-intensive manufacturing; current profitability depends on pricing and supply balance.
Geopolitical risk: Unknown — China sales, export exposure and Taiwan concentration require a common evidence review; no categorical risk assigned.
Earnings momentum: Pre-release consensus and comparable prior guidance are unavailable; company guidance is not substituted for consensus.
Peers to cross-check (not established causal effects)
Issuer evidence and market data
Micron FY2026 Q4 results ↗Quarterly results / statements / cash-flow reconciliation
Published 2026-09-30 · Checked 2026-11-03
Yahoo Finance analyst consensus / retrieved snapshot ↗Next fiscal year 2028-08-31; price 795.23 USD at 2026-11-04T21:00:00Z; consensus EPS 207.76048. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
Yahoo Finance standardized quarterly financials / retrieved snapshot ↗Provider quarter end 2026-08-31; USD; source hash 8707f77d9203aa5a756fae81eb23e2b9d10fe3b6c365207fe350f1b99283a716. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
Applied Materials
FY2026 Q3 · 2026-07-26 · USD · US GAAP
Next checks
Semiconductor Systems / Service revenue
Expand metrics, risks and next earnings
- Revenue YoY
- 25%
- EPS YoY
- 43%
- Gross margin
- 50.3%
- Operating margin
- 33.7%
- FCF margin
- 25.6%*
- Forward P/E
- 19.9×*
- Net margin
- 27.8%*
- ROIC
- Unavailable
AI: High · Resilience: Medium
FCF uses company-defined operating cash flow less capex. Equipment and customers’ end-product cycles differ.
What to watch
- Semiconductor Systems
- Service revenue
- HBM equipment demand
- China exposure
- Gross margin
Guidance at editorial review (2026-11-03)
Next-quarter guidance values have not been captured.
Next earnings: Date unconfirmed
★★ Attention (editorial)
Read-through across several AI supply-chain stages.
Risks, peer read-through and sources
Process breadth and services provide a buffer, with exposure to equipment-order deferrals and China restrictions.
Geopolitical risk: Unknown — China sales, export exposure and Taiwan concentration require a common evidence review; no categorical risk assigned.
Earnings momentum: Pre-release consensus and comparable prior guidance are unavailable; company guidance is not substituted for consensus.
Peers to cross-check (not established causal effects)
Issuer evidence and market data
Applied Materials FY2026 Q3 results ↗Quarterly results / statements / cash-flow reconciliation
Published 2026-08-13 · Checked 2026-11-03
Yahoo Finance analyst consensus / retrieved snapshot ↗Next fiscal year 2027-10-31; price 369.4 USD at 2026-11-04T21:00:00Z; consensus EPS 18.55645. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
Yahoo Finance standardized quarterly financials / retrieved snapshot ↗Provider quarter end 2026-07-31; USD; source hash 8707f77d9203aa5a756fae81eb23e2b9d10fe3b6c365207fe350f1b99283a716. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
Arm
FY2027 Q1 · 2026-06-30 · USD · US GAAP
Next checks
Royalty growth / Armv9 / CSS mix
Expand metrics, risks and next earnings
- Revenue YoY
- 22%
- EPS YoY
- 108%
- Gross margin
- 97.2%
- Operating margin
- 7.1%
- FCF margin
- 53.8%*
- Forward P/E
- 62.7×*
- Net margin
- 20.9%*
- ROIC
- Unavailable
AI: Medium · Resilience: Medium
IP gross margins are structurally different from manufacturing. FCF is affected by collection and tax-payment timing.
What to watch
- Royalty growth
- Armv9 / CSS mix
- Data-center adoption
- License timing
- Operating expenses
Guidance at editorial review (2026-11-03)
FY2027 Q2 revenue guidance: $1.38bn ±$0.05bn.
Next earnings: Date unconfirmed
★ Attention (editorial)
Read-through primarily to peers and related end markets.
Risks, peer read-through and sources
End-market diversification and IP income help; licensing timing, concentration and R&D spending affect quarterly earnings.
Geopolitical risk: Unknown — China sales, export exposure and Taiwan concentration require a common evidence review; no categorical risk assigned.
Earnings momentum: Pre-release consensus and comparable prior guidance are unavailable; company guidance is not substituted for consensus.
Peers to cross-check (not established causal effects)
Issuer evidence and market data
Arm FY2027 Q1 results ↗Quarterly results / statements / cash-flow reconciliation
Published 2026-07-29 · Checked 2026-11-03
Yahoo Finance analyst consensus / retrieved snapshot ↗Next fiscal year 2028-03-31; price 191.8 USD at 2026-11-04T21:00:00Z; consensus EPS 3.05802. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
Yahoo Finance standardized quarterly financials / retrieved snapshot ↗Provider quarter end 2026-06-30; USD; source hash 8707f77d9203aa5a756fae81eb23e2b9d10fe3b6c365207fe350f1b99283a716. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
Qualcomm
FY2026 Q3 · 2026-06-28 · USD · US GAAP
Next checks
Handset revenue / Automotive / IoT growth
Expand metrics, risks and next earnings
- Revenue YoY
- -4%
- EPS YoY
- -23%*
- Gross margin
- 53.1%*
- Operating margin
- 16.3%*
- FCF margin
- 5%*
- Forward P/E
- 13.5×*
- Net margin
- 20.1%*
- ROIC
- Unavailable
AI: Medium · Resilience: High
GAAP operating profit is not QCT/QTL pre-tax profit. Quarterly FCF is unavailable.
What to watch
- Handset revenue
- Automotive / IoT growth
- Licensing
- Data-center ramp
- Gross margin
Guidance at editorial review (2026-11-03)
FY2026 Q4 revenue guidance: $9.7–10.5bn.
Next earnings: Date unconfirmed
★ Attention (editorial)
Read-through primarily to peers and related end markets.
Risks, peer read-through and sources
Handsets, auto, IoT and licensing diversify demand. This is resilience to AI capex slowdown, not to a handset downturn.
Geopolitical risk: Unknown — China sales, export exposure and Taiwan concentration require a common evidence review; no categorical risk assigned.
Earnings momentum: Pre-release consensus and comparable prior guidance are unavailable; company guidance is not substituted for consensus.
Peers to cross-check (not established causal effects)
Issuer evidence and market data
Qualcomm FY2026 Q3 results ↗Quarterly results / statements / cash-flow reconciliation
Published 2026-07-29 · Checked 2026-11-03
Yahoo Finance analyst consensus / retrieved snapshot ↗Next fiscal year 2028-09-30; price 173.19 USD at 2026-11-04T21:00:00Z; consensus EPS 12.84954. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
Yahoo Finance standardized quarterly financials / retrieved snapshot ↗Provider quarter end 2026-06-30; USD; source hash 8707f77d9203aa5a756fae81eb23e2b9d10fe3b6c365207fe350f1b99283a716. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
Intel
2026 Q3 · 2026-09-26 · USD · US GAAP
Next checks
DCAI revenue / Foundry losses / utilization
Expand metrics, risks and next earnings
- Revenue YoY
- 21%
- EPS YoY
- -33%
- Gross margin
- 43%
- Operating margin
- 15.3%
- FCF margin
- 6.4%*
- Forward P/E
- 32.4×*
- Net margin
- 20.1%*
- ROIC
- Unavailable
AI: Medium · Resilience: Low
Consolidated figures eliminate intersegment sales. GAAP EPS declined YoY despite non-GAAP growth.
What to watch
- DCAI revenue
- Foundry losses / utilization
- Process yields
- Capex / operating cash flow
- PC demand
Guidance at editorial review (2026-11-03)
2026 Q4 revenue guidance: $15–16bn.
Next earnings: Date unconfirmed
★ Attention (editorial)
Read-through primarily to peers and related end markets.
Risks, peer read-through and sources
Fab fixed costs and process investment combine with PC demand risk; CPU diversification alone does not remove manufacturing intensity.
Geopolitical risk: Unknown — China sales, export exposure and Taiwan concentration require a common evidence review; no categorical risk assigned.
Earnings momentum: Pre-release consensus and comparable prior guidance are unavailable; company guidance is not substituted for consensus.
Peers to cross-check (not established causal effects)
Issuer evidence and market data
Intel 2026 Q3 results ↗Quarterly results / statements / cash-flow reconciliation
Published 2026-10-29 · Checked 2026-11-03
Yahoo Finance analyst consensus / retrieved snapshot ↗Next fiscal year 2027-12-31; price 58.27 USD at 2026-11-04T21:00:01Z; consensus EPS 1.79872. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
Yahoo Finance standardized quarterly financials / retrieved snapshot ↗Provider quarter end 2026-09-30; USD; source hash 8707f77d9203aa5a756fae81eb23e2b9d10fe3b6c365207fe350f1b99283a716. Retrieval date, not issuer publication date.
Retrieved 2026-11-05 · Checked 2026-11-05
NEXT EARNINGS WATCH
Next verified checkpoints
Uses the existing calendar dataset. Dates are shown in Japan time, never recycling past events as upcoming. Schedule is evaluated at build time.
NVDA ★★★
18/11/2026, 07:00 JST
Data Center revenue / Gross margin
Event details →Schedule checked 2026-10-30 · Official schedule
AVGO ★★
Date unconfirmed
AI semiconductor revenue / Custom ASIC programs
Calendar and official IR directory →AMD ★★
Date unconfirmed
Data Center growth / Instinct deployment
Calendar and official IR directory →TSM ★★★
Date unconfirmed
Advanced-node mix / Packaging capacity
Calendar and official IR directory →ASML ★★
Date unconfirmed
EUV / High-NA deliveries / Customer orders
Calendar and official IR directory →MU ★★
Date unconfirmed
HBM demand / supply / DRAM pricing
Calendar and official IR directory →AMAT ★★
Date unconfirmed
Semiconductor Systems / Service revenue
Calendar and official IR directory →ARM ★
Date unconfirmed
Royalty growth / Armv9 / CSS mix
Calendar and official IR directory →QCOM ★
Date unconfirmed
Handset revenue / Automotive / IoT growth
Calendar and official IR directory →INTC ★
Date unconfirmed
DCAI revenue / Foundry losses / utilization
Calendar and official IR directory →METHODOLOGY / SOURCES
What can and cannot be compared yet
Editorial review of qualitative analysis and guidance: 2026-11-03
Metrics and periods
Revenue and diluted EPS use YoY changes; margins use quarterly consolidated results. GAAP/TIFRS and adjusted earnings are not mixed. Automated FCF is operating cash flow minus capital expenditure; retained issuer metrics carry their source definitions. No FX conversion: TSMC uses TWD, ASML EUR, others USD. ROIC is unavailable.
Qualitative rules
AI exposure: very high means direct AI infrastructure demand is a principal growth channel; high covers advanced manufacturing, memory, equipment or mixed-use data centers; medium covers IP and device channels. These are not estimated revenue shares.
Resilience: high indicates diversified demand beyond AI capex; medium combines buffers with investment cyclicality; low indicates multiple pressures from direct demand, competitive spending, pricing cycles or fixed costs. This does not predict future loss magnitudes.
Momentum, expectations and attention
Acceleration is the change in revenue YoY across consecutive quarters; within ±1 percentage point is stable. Missing history remains unrated. Surprises require pre-release consensus. Attention: ★★★ broad market/AI spending, ★★ several supply-chain stages, ★ peers or end markets; editorial assessments.
Data coverage
Revenue YoY 10/10, operating margin 10/10, FCF margin 10/10, forward P/E 10/10. Missing data is never zero or neutral.
Consensus EPS, revenue, quotes and quarterly financials are refreshed automatically. Our pre-release archives start with this implementation; historical provider records are not retrospectively labeled as our pre-release captures. Stock reactions and quantified geopolitical comparisons remain unavailable.
Download data with sources and definitions (JSON)For company comparison and analysis, not investment recommendations. Check reference periods and missing fields.