{"version":1,"reviewedAt":"2026-11-04","sources":[{"id":"asml","url":"https://investor.asml.com/news-releases/news-release-details/asml-reports-eu11.7-billion-total-net-sales-and-eu5.0-billion-net-income-q3-2026","title":"ASML Q3 2026 results","asOf":"2026-10-14","location":"CEO outlook; capacity footnote 2"},{"id":"mu","url":"https://investors.micron.com/files/doc_financials/2026/q4/Q4-26-Earnings-Deck.pdf","title":"Micron FQ4 2026 earnings deck","asOf":"2026-09-30","location":"Slides 10–11: SCAs; 16–17: supply outlook"},{"id":"mu-contract","url":"https://investors.micron.com/static-files/631b1a32-5537-46ae-8f40-82e42fc79dfe","title":"Micron FQ3 2026 prepared remarks","asOf":"2026-06-24","location":"Strategic Customer Agreements: take-or-pay terms"},{"id":"mu-hbm","url":"https://investors.micron.com/static-files/530bd7ed-a8c8-4687-af4a-8c129f740e09","title":"Micron FQ1 2026 earnings deck","asOf":"2025-12-17","location":"Slide 4: calendar 2026 HBM price and volume agreements"},{"id":"nvda","url":"https://investor.nvidia.com/files/doc_financials/2027/NVDA-2027-Q2-10Q-Final-including-exhibits.pdf","title":"NVIDIA FY2027 Q2 Form 10-Q","asOf":"2026-07-26","location":"Note 10: supply and capacity commitments; period-end date"},{"id":"nvda-call","url":"https://investor.nvidia.com/files/content_files/TRANSCRIPT_-NVIDIA-Corp-NVDA-US-Q2-2027-Earnings-Call-26-August-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf","title":"NVIDIA FY2027 Q2 earnings call","asOf":"2026-08-26","location":"CFO: FY2028 outlook; AWS deployment"},{"id":"amd","url":"https://newsroom.amd.com/news/amd-and-openai-announce-strategic-partnership-to-d/","title":"AMD / OpenAI definitive agreement","asOf":"2025-10-06","location":"6 GW multi-generation agreement; first 1 GW in H2 2026"},{"id":"avgo","url":"https://investors.broadcom.com/news-releases/news-release-details/openai-and-broadcom-announce-strategic-collaboration-deploy-10","title":"Broadcom / OpenAI collaboration","asOf":"2025-10-13","location":"10 GW deployment target; term sheet; H2 2026–2029"},{"id":"tsm","url":"https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2026-10/eba4fac72873bf546b669bd2b5d973df5c93215d/TSMC%203Q26%20Transcript.pdf","title":"TSMC Q3 2026 earnings call","asOf":"2026-10-15","location":"Pages 3–5, 8, 13: demand, capacity and investment"},{"id":"arm","url":"https://investors.arm.com/static-files/673c8e81-66f9-4411-adb8-571a63f811b2","title":"Arm FY2027 Q1 shareholder letter / 6-K","asOf":"2026-07-29","location":"Pages 8, 10: ACV and definition"},{"id":"qcom","url":"https://www.qualcomm.com/news/onq/2026/03/snapdragon-automotive-market-traction-and-scale","title":"Qualcomm automotive business overview","asOf":"2026-03-19","location":"Automotive design-win pipeline"},{"id":"intc","url":"https://www.intc.com/filings-reports/quarterly-reports/content/0000050863-26-000191/0000050863-26-000191.pdf","title":"Intel Q3 2026 Form 10-Q","asOf":"2026-10-30","location":"Future Node Development; Industry Supply Constraints"},{"id":"amat","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6951/000162828025056742/amat-20251026.htm","title":"Applied Materials FY2025 Form 10-K","asOf":"2025-10-26","location":"Business / Backlog; backlog measurement date, not filing date"}],"companies":[{"id":"asml","ticker":"ASML","scope":{"ja":"露光装置の供給能力","en":"Lithography-system supply"},"kind":"constraint","headline":{"ja":"2027・2028年：計画供給＜顧客需要","en":"2027–2028: planned supply below demand"},"detail":{"ja":"会社は増産計画を織り込んでも両年の需要を満たせないと説明。2029・2030年分の注文を希望する顧客もいる。","en":"Management expects a supply shortfall even with planned expansion; some customers want to place 2029–2030 orders."},"limit":{"ja":"需要見通しであり、全製品の2028年確定受注充足率は示していない。注文希望と受理済み注文も別。","en":"This is a demand/supply outlook, not a disclosed 2028 firm-order fill rate. Order interest is not accepted backlog."},"watch":{"ja":"増産実行、受注の納期別内訳、取消・延期","en":"Capacity execution, delivery-year backlog, cancellations and deferrals"},"sourceIds":["asml"],"full2028":"not-established","years":[{"year":2026,"kind":"unknown","label":{"ja":"年別枠は未確認","en":"Annual allocation unverified"},"sourceIds":[]},{"year":2027,"kind":"constraint","label":{"ja":"供給不足の見通し","en":"Supply shortfall outlook"},"sourceIds":["asml"]},{"year":2028,"kind":"constraint","label":{"ja":"供給不足の見通し","en":"Supply shortfall outlook"},"sourceIds":["asml"]},{"year":2029,"kind":"pipeline","label":{"ja":"29–30年の注文意向","en":"2029–30 order interest"},"sourceIds":["asml"]}]},{"id":"micron","ticker":"MU","scope":{"ja":"DRAM・NAND・HBM","en":"DRAM, NAND and HBM"},"kind":"contract","headline":{"ja":"26件のSCA／2030年までの売上見込みの35%超","en":"26 SCAs / >35% of expected revenue through 2030"},"detail":{"ja":"長期購入契約を締結。新契約・延長の一部は2031年へ。会社は暦年2027・2028年の業界需給が2026年より厳しくなると予想。","en":"Signed long-term purchase agreements, some extended into 2031. Management expects tighter industry supply in calendar 2027–2028 than in 2026."},"limit":{"ja":"35%超は複数年の予想売上比率。2028年の生産数量の予約率ではない。2026年HBMの全量価格・数量合意を2028年へ延長しない。","en":"The >35% figure is multiyear expected revenue coverage, not 2028 capacity allocation. Full 2026 HBM price/volume agreements do not establish a 2028 sellout."},"watch":{"ja":"SCA数量・価格条件、HBM年別契約、2028年の新工場立上げ","en":"SCA volumes/pricing, HBM yearly contracts and 2028 fab ramps"},"sourceIds":["mu","mu-contract","mu-hbm"],"full2028":"not-established","years":[{"year":2026,"kind":"contract","label":{"ja":"HBM26年は全量合意","en":"2026 HBM fully agreed"},"sourceIds":["mu-hbm"]},{"year":2027,"kind":"contract","label":{"ja":"長期契約の対象期間","en":"Within SCA contract term"},"sourceIds":["mu","mu-contract"]},{"year":2028,"kind":"contract","label":{"ja":"一部長期契約＋需給逼迫予想","en":"Partial SCAs + tightness outlook"},"sourceIds":["mu","mu-contract"]},{"year":2029,"kind":"contract","label":{"ja":"2030・31年までの契約","en":"Contracts through 2030–31"},"sourceIds":["mu"]}]},{"id":"tsmc","ticker":"TSM","scope":{"ja":"先端ノード・先端実装","en":"Leading-edge nodes and packaging"},"kind":"plan","headline":{"ja":"需要は強い／2026–28年の投資を拡大","en":"Strong demand / higher 2026–28 investment"},"detail":{"ja":"会社は需要と供給の大きな差を説明。顧客計画やデータセンターの建設・電力を確認しながら能力を増強。","en":"Management describes a substantial demand/supply gap and expands capacity while checking customer plans, data-center construction and power."},"limit":{"ja":"先端需要の強さから、全ノード・全工場の2028年枠が契約済みとは断定できない。","en":"Strong leading-edge demand does not prove all 2028 capacity across nodes and fabs is contracted."},"watch":{"ja":"ノード別・CoWoS別の能力と拘束力ある予約、稼働時期","en":"Node/CoWoS capacity, binding reservations and ramp dates"},"sourceIds":["tsm"],"full2028":"not-established","years":[{"year":2026,"kind":"constraint","label":{"ja":"先端需要と供給に差","en":"Leading-edge supply gap"},"sourceIds":["tsm"]},{"year":2027,"kind":"plan","label":{"ja":"能力増強計画","en":"Capacity expansion plan"},"sourceIds":["tsm"]},{"year":2028,"kind":"plan","label":{"ja":"投資・量産立上げ計画","en":"Investment and ramp plans"},"sourceIds":["tsm"]},{"year":2029,"kind":"unknown","label":{"ja":"年別枠は未確認","en":"Annual allocation unverified"},"sourceIds":[]}]},{"id":"nvidia","ticker":"NVDA","scope":{"ja":"GPU・システム／外部製造を確保","en":"GPUs/systems; outsourced supply"},"kind":"procurement","headline":{"ja":"供給・能力コミットメント $279B","en":"Supply/capacity commitments $279B"},"detail":{"ja":"2026-07-26時点の自社調達義務。会社はFY2028売上約70%成長を供給制約付きで見込む。","en":"Procurement obligations as of 2026-07-26. Management projects roughly 70% FY2028 revenue growth constrained by supply."},"limit":{"ja":"調達義務は顧客受注残ではない。FY2028は主に暦年2027で、暦年2028の満枠を意味しない。","en":"Procurement commitments are not customer backlog. FY2028 largely covers calendar 2027; it does not establish a calendar-2028 sellout."},"watch":{"ja":"顧客の確定注文、供給義務の取消条件、電力とラック設置","en":"Firm customer orders, cancellation terms and power/rack readiness"},"sourceIds":["nvda","nvda-call"],"full2028":"not-established","years":[{"year":2026,"kind":"procurement","label":{"ja":"自社の供給枠確保","en":"Own supply commitments"},"sourceIds":["nvda"]},{"year":2027,"kind":"constraint","label":{"ja":"FY28：供給制約見通し","en":"FY28 supply constraint outlook"},"sourceIds":["nvda-call"]},{"year":2028,"kind":"unknown","label":{"ja":"年別枠は未確認","en":"Annual allocation unverified"},"sourceIds":[]},{"year":2029,"kind":"unknown","label":{"ja":"年別枠は未確認","en":"Annual allocation unverified"},"sourceIds":[]}]},{"id":"amd","ticker":"AMD","scope":{"ja":"OpenAI向けGPU契約","en":"OpenAI GPU agreement"},"kind":"contract","headline":{"ja":"OpenAIと複数年・6 GW契約","en":"Multiyear 6 GW OpenAI agreement"},"detail":{"ja":"最初の1 GWは2026年後半から展開する契約。複数世代の製品を対象とする。","en":"The agreement covers multiple product generations, with the first 1 GW deployment starting in H2 2026."},"limit":{"ja":"6 GWは特定顧客との累計規模。AMD全体の2028年供給枠や年別出荷数量の充足率ではない。","en":"6 GW is the cumulative scope for one customer, not AMD-wide 2028 capacity coverage or annual shipment allocation."},"watch":{"ja":"年別出荷契約、導入実績、製造・HBMの確保","en":"Annual shipment commitments, deployments and foundry/HBM supply"},"sourceIds":["amd"],"full2028":"not-established","years":[{"year":2026,"kind":"contract","label":{"ja":"初期1 GW展開開始","en":"First 1 GW deployment start"},"sourceIds":["amd"]},{"year":2027,"kind":"unknown","label":{"ja":"年別枠は未確認","en":"Annual allocation unverified"},"sourceIds":[]},{"year":2028,"kind":"unknown","label":{"ja":"年別枠は未確認","en":"Annual allocation unverified"},"sourceIds":[]},{"year":2029,"kind":"unknown","label":{"ja":"年別枠は未確認","en":"Annual allocation unverified"},"sourceIds":[]}]},{"id":"broadcom","ticker":"AVGO","scope":{"ja":"OpenAI向けカスタムAI協業","en":"OpenAI custom-AI collaboration"},"kind":"plan","headline":{"ja":"10 GW／2026年後半–2029年の展開目標","en":"10 GW / H2 2026–2029 deployment target"},"detail":{"ja":"共同開発・供給の協業とラック展開のタームシートを公表。","en":"Disclosed co-development/supply collaboration and a term sheet for rack deployment."},"limit":{"ja":"展開目標を確定受注残や2028年の全枠販売済みへ読み替えない。","en":"A deployment target is not firm backlog or proof that all 2028 capacity is sold."},"watch":{"ja":"確定発注への転換、年別納入量、顧客別集中","en":"Conversion to firm orders, yearly deliveries and customer concentration"},"sourceIds":["avgo"],"full2028":"not-established","years":[{"year":2026,"kind":"plan","label":{"ja":"展開開始の目標","en":"Target deployment start"},"sourceIds":["avgo"]},{"year":2027,"kind":"plan","label":{"ja":"複数年展開の期間内","en":"Within deployment target"},"sourceIds":["avgo"]},{"year":2028,"kind":"plan","label":{"ja":"複数年展開の期間内","en":"Within deployment target"},"sourceIds":["avgo"]},{"year":2029,"kind":"plan","label":{"ja":"2029年末完了目標","en":"Target completion by end-2029"},"sourceIds":["avgo"]}]},{"id":"applied-materials","ticker":"AMAT","scope":{"ja":"装置＋保守サービス","en":"Equipment and service contracts"},"kind":"backlog","headline":{"ja":"受注残 $15.002B（2025-10-26）","en":"Backlog $15.002B (2025-10-26)"},"detail":{"ja":"FY2025年報の受注残。装置$7.105B、サービス$7.141B、その他$0.756B。約31%は当時の翌12か月内に履行しない見込み。","en":"FY2025 backlog: systems $7.105B, services $7.141B, other $0.756B. About 31% was not expected to be fulfilled within the following 12 months."},"limit":{"ja":"過去の年報時点の残高で、現在残高ではない。サービスを含み、2028年装置生産枠の充足率に換算できない。","en":"Historical annual-report snapshot, not current backlog. It includes services and cannot be converted into 2028 equipment-capacity coverage."},"watch":{"ja":"次の年報の受注残更新、装置・サービス別納期、取消","en":"Next annual backlog update, equipment/service delivery timing and cancellations"},"sourceIds":["amat"],"full2028":"not-established","years":[{"year":2026,"kind":"unknown","label":{"ja":"年別枠は未確認","en":"Annual allocation unverified"},"sourceIds":[]},{"year":2027,"kind":"unknown","label":{"ja":"年別枠は未確認","en":"Annual allocation unverified"},"sourceIds":[]},{"year":2028,"kind":"unknown","label":{"ja":"年別枠は未確認","en":"Annual allocation unverified"},"sourceIds":[]},{"year":2029,"kind":"unknown","label":{"ja":"年別枠は未確認","en":"Annual allocation unverified"},"sourceIds":[]}]},{"id":"arm","ticker":"ARM","scope":{"ja":"IPライセンスの契約指標","en":"IP licensing contract metric"},"kind":"licensing","headline":{"ja":"ACV $1.732B（FY2027 Q1）","en":"ACV $1.732B (FY2027 Q1)"},"detail":{"ja":"有効なライセンス契約のコミット済み料金を年率換算。将来ロイヤルティを含まない。","en":"Annualized committed fees for active licensing agreements; excludes future royalties."},"limit":{"ja":"ACVは受注残・売上・ウェハ生産枠のいずれでもない。この指標から2028年の満枠は判定できない。","en":"ACV is neither backlog, revenue nor wafer capacity. It cannot establish 2028 production sellout."},"watch":{"ja":"契約更新、ロイヤルティ化、顧客チップの出荷","en":"Renewals, royalty conversion and customer chip shipments"},"sourceIds":["arm"],"full2028":"not-applicable","years":[{"year":2026,"kind":"licensing","label":{"ja":"IP契約・ACV","en":"IP contracts / ACV"},"sourceIds":["arm"]},{"year":2027,"kind":"na","label":{"ja":"製造枠指標は非該当","en":"Not a capacity metric"},"sourceIds":["arm"]},{"year":2028,"kind":"na","label":{"ja":"製造枠指標は非該当","en":"Not a capacity metric"},"sourceIds":["arm"]},{"year":2029,"kind":"na","label":{"ja":"製造枠指標は非該当","en":"Not a capacity metric"},"sourceIds":["arm"]}]},{"id":"qualcomm","ticker":"QCOM","scope":{"ja":"自動車のデザインウィン","en":"Automotive design wins"},"kind":"pipeline","headline":{"ja":"自動車採用パイプライン 約$45B","en":"Automotive design-win pipeline ~ $45B"},"detail":{"ja":"2026-03-19の会社説明にある採用案件の見通し。","en":"Company design-win pipeline disclosed on 2026-03-19."},"limit":{"ja":"採用案件の見込み額を取り消し不能な購入注文や2028年の生産予約に置き換えない。","en":"Design-win pipeline is not interchangeable with non-cancellable purchase orders or 2028 production reservations."},"watch":{"ja":"量産開始、搭載台数、採用案件の売上化","en":"Production starts, vehicle volumes and conversion to revenue"},"sourceIds":["qcom"],"full2028":"not-established","years":[{"year":2026,"kind":"pipeline","label":{"ja":"採用案件の見通し","en":"Design-win pipeline"},"sourceIds":["qcom"]},{"year":2027,"kind":"unknown","label":{"ja":"年別枠は未確認","en":"Annual allocation unverified"},"sourceIds":[]},{"year":2028,"kind":"unknown","label":{"ja":"年別枠は未確認","en":"Annual allocation unverified"},"sourceIds":[]},{"year":2029,"kind":"unknown","label":{"ja":"年別枠は未確認","en":"Annual allocation unverified"},"sourceIds":[]}]},{"id":"intel","ticker":"INTC","scope":{"ja":"データセンターCPU・14A","en":"Data-center CPUs and 14A"},"kind":"plan","headline":{"ja":"DC向け供給制約／14Aは需要に応じ投資","en":"DC supply constraints / demand-led 14A investment"},"detail":{"ja":"Q3報告では一部DC製品の需要超過を説明。14Aの増強規模は社内需要と外部顧客の採用・コミット次第。","en":"Q3 report describes excess demand for some DC products. 14A expansion depends on internal requirements and external customer commitments."},"limit":{"ja":"現在のCPU不足やプロセス開発計画は、2028年外部ファウンドリー枠の販売済み証拠ではない。","en":"Current CPU shortages and process development are not evidence that 2028 external foundry capacity is sold."},"watch":{"ja":"外部顧客の拘束力ある契約、歩留まり、設備投資判断","en":"Binding external contracts, yields and capex decisions"},"sourceIds":["intc"],"full2028":"not-established","years":[{"year":2026,"kind":"constraint","label":{"ja":"一部DC製品で不足","en":"Some DC products constrained"},"sourceIds":["intc"]},{"year":2027,"kind":"constraint","label":{"ja":"部材不足継続の見通し","en":"Component constraints expected"},"sourceIds":["intc"]},{"year":2028,"kind":"plan","label":{"ja":"14A増強は需要次第","en":"14A expansion demand-led"},"sourceIds":["intc"]},{"year":2029,"kind":"unknown","label":{"ja":"年別枠は未確認","en":"Annual allocation unverified"},"sourceIds":[]}]}]}