SPXL: price action and decision validation
S&P500・Bull 3x
As of: 2026-11-04 · U.S. Eastern Time (ET) / Calculated 2026/11/05 15:40 JST
Model outlook and forecast data
Holding direction〈LONG〉 · Target weight: 14.3%
The current instrument-specific model does not predict future prices or the probability of gains. The decision uses the instrument-specific rule below. These figures are not price forecasts or guarantees of profit.
SPY: Reference close relative to SMA200: above => LONG; otherwise CASH. Decision: LONG.
- Reference close
- 766.81 USD
- 200-day average
- 729.91 USD
- Deviation from the 200-day average
- 5.1%
- Research model
- current200 / 4.0.1
Observed price action
Latest finalized observation · As of: 2026-11-04 · U.S. Eastern Time (ET)
- Close
- 281.79 USD
- 100-day average
- 280.63 USD
- 200-day average
- 256.04 USD
- 300-day average
- 242.33 USD
- Change from previous session
- +13.03 USD (+4.85%)
Period: 2025-11-04–2026-11-04. Products launched less than five years ago, or with insufficient stored history, show only the available period. The 300-day average appears only after 300 valid sessions. The initial view covers the latest year. Use the slider to move the one-year window, and hover or tap to inspect daily values.
Closing prices adjusted for stock splits to the share units applicable on the reference date. Distribution reinvestment is excluded. Blue is the ETF close; dashed purple is the illustrative 100-day average; orange is the illustrative 200-day average; green is the illustrative 300-day average.
Latest finalized observation · As of: 2026-11-04 · U.S. Eastern Time (ET)
- Close
- 766.81 USD
- 100-day average
- 759.9 USD
- 200-day average
- 729.91 USD
- 300-day average
- 710.83 USD
- Change from previous session
- +12.46 USD (+1.65%)
Period: 2025-11-04–2026-11-04. Products launched less than five years ago, or with insufficient stored history, show only the available period. The 300-day average appears only after 300 valid sessions. The initial view covers the latest year. Use the slider to move the one-year window, and hover or tap to inspect daily values.
This is the model’s reference price, not the ETF’s own price. Blue is the reference close, dashed purple is SMA100 (illustrative), orange is SMA200 (used for decisions), and green is SMA300 (illustrative). The selected rule determines whether SMA100 or SMA200 is used. SMA300 is illustrative.
Source: stored Yahoo Finance / yfinance daily data. Prices after the reference date and extended-hours prices are excluded. Lines do not bridge missing intervals.
View the latest 20 trading sessions
| Trading date | ETF close | Reference close | ETF SMA100 (illustrative) | Reference SMA100 (illustrative) | SMA200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | 293.05 | 773.93 | 278.38 | 755.75 | 722.46 |
| 2026-10-09 | 297.97 | 778.57 | 278.7 | 756.15 | 722.93 |
| 2026-10-12 | 297.37 | 778.1 | 279.07 | 756.59 | 723.38 |
| 2026-10-13 | 297.42 | 778.01 | 279.36 | 756.96 | 723.82 |
| 2026-10-14 | 287.63 | 769.6 | 279.53 | 757.23 | 724.21 |
| 2026-10-15 | 290 | 771.79 | 279.7 | 757.49 | 724.63 |
| 2026-10-16 | 280.17 | 763.25 | 279.72 | 757.62 | 725.01 |
| 2026-10-19 | 283.62 | 766.48 | 279.77 | 757.78 | 725.44 |
| 2026-10-20 | 286.27 | 769.05 | 279.8 | 757.92 | 725.87 |
| 2026-10-21 | 290.87 | 773.09 | 279.86 | 758.09 | 726.29 |
| 2026-10-22 | 280.41 | 763.96 | 279.8 | 758.14 | 726.65 |
| 2026-10-23 | 275.63 | 759.97 | 279.68 | 758.15 | 727.01 |
| 2026-10-26 | 281.52 | 765.37 | 279.67 | 758.26 | 727.39 |
| 2026-10-27 | 286.21 | 769.66 | 279.68 | 758.38 | 727.76 |
| 2026-10-28 | 288.95 | 772.31 | 279.95 | 758.73 | 728.15 |
| 2026-10-29 | 285.67 | 769.36 | 280.16 | 759.03 | 728.53 |
| 2026-10-30 | 270.35 | 755.72 | 280.24 | 759.22 | 728.85 |
| 2026-11-02 | 266.32 | 752.1 | 280.41 | 759.49 | 729.15 |
| 2026-11-03 | 268.76 | 754.35 | 280.47 | 759.65 | 729.47 |
| 2026-11-04 | 281.79 | 766.81 | 280.63 | 759.9 | 729.91 |
Why this target weight?
SPXL has a final target weight of 14.3% . This is the proportion of total assets in the U.S. USD account allocated to this ETF. It is not an expected return.
For example, with total account assets of 10,000 USD, SPXL has a target holding value of approximately 1,433.1 USD. This is the total holding, including existing positions, not an additional purchase amount.
- First, determine whether the direction is to hold.The current decision is Holding direction〈LONG〉. SPY: Reference close relative to SMA200: above => LONG; otherwise CASH. Decision: LONG. At the direction-decision stage, 100% is a computational indicator of the holding direction, not an instruction to invest all account assets.
- Next, scale holdings to this ETF’s volatility.The weight adjusted for volatility over the preceding 60 sessions and the instrument cap, before account-wide constraints, is 30.0%.
- Finally, adjust for the other ETFs in the account.After limiting concentration and account-wide risk, the final target weight is 14.3%. If unavailable, there is insufficient information to determine a holding value.
Constraints applied in account-wide allocation: single-stock total cap / account investment cap / leverage-weighted exposure cap. Account constraints also include those relating to other instruments. The allocation audit below shows the specific effect on this ETF.
Adjustment to this weight is assumed at the regular market open: 2026/11/05 23:30 JST. This does not predict a price increase by that time. Expired order proposals are invalid.
Check the daily-updated backtest
This does not prove the latest signal is correct or that future profits will follow. It is a retrospective standalone-instrument evaluation, distinct from current whole-account allocations. The current instrument-specific model and ETF buy-and-hold benchmark are recalculated after daily prices update. There is no update on market holidays.
| Comparison | Period | Annualized return | Maximum drawdown | Completed-episode win rate | Completed episodes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current200 with risk controls | 2013-11-14–2026-11-04 Calculated: 2026/11/05 16:46 JST | 6.2% | -21.0% | 28.9% | 38 |
| ETF buy and hold | 2008-11-06–2026-11-04 Calculated: 2026/11/05 16:46 JST | 26.4% | -73.5% | Not calculated | 0 |
Win rate is the share of completed holding episodes that were profitable. It is not daily prediction accuracy or the probability of future gains.
View costs, execution assumptions, all comparisons and limitations →Decision reference: SPY recovery above the 200-day average
Trading sessions from a close crossing below the 200-day moving average until it closes back above that day’s 200-day average.
Evaluation period: 2013-11-13–2026-11-04 (market-local dates). Completed recoveries: 38. Stored prices begin: 2013-01-02.
- Median
- 3.5 sessions
- Mean
- 14.7 sessions
- Longest
- 162 sessions
| Time to recovery | Share of completed recoveries |
|---|---|
| 5 sessions or fewer | 22 / 38 cases (58%) |
| 10 sessions or fewer | 27 / 38 cases (71%) |
| 20 sessions or fewer | 30 / 38 cases (79%) |
| 60 sessions or fewer | 37 / 38 cases (97%) |
| 120 sessions or fewer | 37 / 38 cases (97%) |
View prolonged cases
| Crossing below | Recovery date | Trading sessions |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-08 | 2022-11-30 | 162 days |
| 2020-03-05 | 2020-05-27 | 57 days |
| 2015-12-30 | 2016-03-11 | 49 days |
| 2018-12-04 | 2019-02-12 | 46 days |
| 2015-08-20 | 2015-10-23 | 45 days |
There is currently no tracked crossing still awaiting recovery. Deviation from the 200-day average on the reference date: 5.05%.
Source: stored Yahoo Finance daily observations, adjusted for stock splits and evaluated using the current model’s 200-day average and 220-session quality requirements. The crossing day is day zero; recovery on the next session is one day. Periods already below the average at the start are excluded because their crossing date is unknown. Repeated crossings over short intervals each count separately. Statistics limited to completed recoveries are biased and do not indicate future recovery probabilities. The moving average itself may decline, so this is distinct from recovery to a purchase price or previous high. Crises before the stored period are excluded.
Allocation calculation audit trail
Reference market date: 2026-11-04. Reproduction using stored data. Matches the published weight.
SPY close: 766.81 / SMA200: 729.913 / Deviation: 5.05% / Decision: LONG
Annualized ETF volatility: 31.70%. 60-session window; valid observations: 60 / minimum 40. Floor: 5.00%
Valid reference-price observations: 3482. Valid sessions in the latest 220-session window: 220. The 200-day average, 220-session quality history and actual-ETF volatility history are separate requirements.
| Calculation step | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Base weight (25% ÷ max(annualized ETF volatility, 5%); 0% for CASH) | — | 78.86% |
| Instrument cap | 78.86% | 30.00% |
| Nasdaq-100 aggregate cap | 30.00% | 30.00% |
| S&P500 aggregate cap | 30.00% | 30.00% |
| Single-stock aggregate cap | 30.00% | 30.00% |
| Technology overlap cap | 30.00% | 30.00% |
| Instrument-cap recheck | 30.00% | 30.00% |
| Account investment cap · Reduced | 30.00% | 22.00% |
| Leverage-weighted gross exposure cap · Reduced | 22.00% | 14.33% |
| Account covariance risk cap | 14.33% | 14.33% |
| Recalculated final weight | — | 14.33% |
| Published weight | — | 14.33% |
The 25% in the base weight is an instrument allocation coefficient. It is calculated separately from the account-wide 25% annualized volatility constraint and is not a loss limit. A LONG direction can still result in a final allocation of 0%.
View whole-account allocation and backtests →U.S. interest-rate changes →
Only the two Treasury indicators are available. Policy-rate expectations are not connected.
Reference date: 2026-11-04 / Change over five U.S. Treasury business days
U.S. 2-year Treasury yield
4.580% · -9.0 bp
Valid / Comparison date: 2026-10-28
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield
4.900% · -15.0 bp
Valid / Comparison date: 2026-10-28