Bull and inverse ETF backtest results

Retrospective diagnostics using a data version already examined. All trials are disclosed; the best model is not adopted automatically. No earnings guard is applied. Inverse ETFs use standalone inverse-SMA200 tests over the longest continuous valid history of the actual ETF, not a consolidated account. Higher costs and one additional session of execution delay are compared. Archived bull-ETF tests retain their original versions. The full-history TECS test is BLOCKED because precise cash-in-lieu data for fractional shares at reverse splits is unavailable; a separate short-period diagnostic covers the interval after the latest reverse split. Missing daily observations for 1357 are not used for that day’s signal.

Calculated 11/5/2026, 4:46:51 PM JST / Input version 30026ba6a529820b

The fixed research universe is not counted as 10 independent successes. Products sharing a reference market are correlated. The standalone instrument tests below are distinct from consolidated account allocation.

Win rate is profitable completed holding episodes, including costs and distributions, divided by all completed episodes. An episode runs from initial purchase to full liquidation, including intervening adjustments. Open holdings are excluded; break-even episodes are not wins. With zero completed episodes, the result is unavailable (—). Win rate is not a probability of future gains and is unstable with few trades.

Calculation, position sizing and execution

Direction uses the finalized reference price at t. Position size is scaled by 25% divided by annualized volatility of the actual ETF over the preceding 60 sessions (at least 40 observations, with a 5% floor). The instrument cap is 30%, or 5% for single-stock products. Fixed-cap comparisons without risk-based sizing separate timing from position size.

The adjustment threshold is 1 percentage point. The earlier model’s 10-point threshold would prevent purchases under the 5% single-stock cap, so this expanded version fixed the threshold at 1 point in advance. Existing holdings are fully sold when the target is 0%. This value was not optimized.

Four candidates are compared: SMA200, SMA200 ±2% (retaining the previous state inside the band), existing rules and existing logistic regression. Missing data resets the state. Logistic regression uses at least 504 earlier training observations and a separate 126-observation calibration set, purges five-session labels at both boundaries, and retrains every 126 sessions. Standardization uses training data only. Histories too short for training are BLOCKED.

Quantities are fixed using the close at t, with simulated whole-share execution at the regular open at t+1. Purchases are reduced if a gap leaves insufficient cash. Splits adjust share counts; ex-date distributions become receivables, converted to cash after 30 calendar days when the payment date is unknown. Split-adjusted closes are not mixed with unadjusted opens. Receivables cannot fund purchases.

Standard one-way costs are 2 bp commission + 3 bp half-spread + 5 bp slippage; high costs are 10 + 10 + 15 bp. All managed models also include a one-session additional execution-delay test. Expenses already reflected in prices are not deducted twice. Cash interest, taxes, settlement and market impact are not modeled.

Reference data starts in 2013. Prices immediately after inception are retained, but periods before sufficient SMA200 history exists are not counted as strategy performance. Where long-term data has gaps, the longest continuous interval and its dates are disclosed instead of a full-history evaluation.

Choose results

Select an instrument and evaluation period to filter the results below.

InstrumentETF to compareEvaluation periodHistory range and comparison conditions

TQQQ · ProShares UltraPro QQQ

Actual ETF history 2010-02-11–2026-10-06 (valid: 4188; missing/inconsistent: 2 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2013-11-14–2026-10-06.

The current leverage multiple has been checked. All historical prospectuses have not been exhaustively reconciled.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	372.2%	12.8%	-20.2%	14.3%	0.92	0.63	30.8%	571 / 26	83.5%	99.27	20.65	455.79	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	302.5%	11.4%	-20.4%	14.0%	0.84	0.56	30.8%	569 / 26	83.5%	99.27	20.31	1423.47	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	344.3%	12.3%	-20.8%	14.1%	0.90	0.59	50.0%	601 / 26	83.5%	99.31	21.00	462.12	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	292.4%	11.2%	-25.4%	14.2%	0.82	0.44	54.5%	548 / 11	82.7%	232.45	13.68	270.58	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	260.8%	10.5%	-25.4%	14.0%	0.78	0.41	54.5%	539 / 11	82.7%	232.45	13.36	252.15	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	248.5%	10.2%	-25.7%	14.0%	0.76	0.40	54.5%	545 / 11	82.7%	232.45	13.38	866.69	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	296.1%	11.3%	-23.3%	14.1%	0.83	0.48	63.6%	543 / 11	82.7%	232.55	13.61	274.94	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	138.2%	7.0%	-15.3%	10.3%	0.71	0.46	56.1%	408 / 57	58.0%	32.77	38.70	595.38	Advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	126.9%	6.6%	-15.3%	10.1%	0.68	0.43	56.1%	399 / 57	58.0%	32.77	38.26	576.04	Advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	106.9%	5.8%	-16.8%	10.1%	0.61	0.35	54.4%	396 / 57	58.0%	32.77	38.20	1908.86	Advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	165.3%	7.9%	-15.1%	10.3%	0.79	0.52	56.1%	427 / 57	58.0%	32.79	38.92	674.76	Advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	891.7%	19.5%	-35.0%	21.2%	0.95	0.56	—	12 / 0	100.0%	—	0.35	12.61	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	167.0%	15.6%	-20.1%	15.9%	1.00	0.78	27.3%	332 / 11	80.4%	112.82	10.11	172.02	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	141.4%	13.9%	-19.2%	15.4%	0.93	0.72	27.3%	328 / 11	80.4%	112.82	9.91	154.60	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	136.2%	13.6%	-19.5%	15.4%	0.90	0.70	27.3%	322 / 11	80.4%	112.82	9.90	534.31	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	146.4%	14.3%	-20.8%	15.4%	0.94	0.68	54.5%	337 / 11	80.4%	112.91	10.24	167.91	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	146.2%	14.3%	-20.9%	15.8%	0.92	0.68	60.0%	322 / 5	80.3%	247.80	7.33	120.87	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	125.9%	12.8%	-19.6%	15.4%	0.86	0.65	60.0%	326 / 5	80.3%	247.80	7.22	110.98	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	121.2%	12.5%	-19.8%	15.4%	0.84	0.63	60.0%	319 / 5	80.3%	247.80	7.19	382.23	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	141.1%	13.9%	-17.4%	15.4%	0.92	0.80	80.0%	314 / 5	80.3%	248.00	7.09	116.39	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	84.5%	9.5%	-14.4%	11.8%	0.83	0.66	57.1%	242 / 28	57.1%	34.21	20.37	303.77	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	76.7%	8.8%	-14.2%	11.6%	0.78	0.62	57.1%	250 / 28	57.1%	34.21	20.17	291.53	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	68.1%	8.0%	-14.6%	11.6%	0.72	0.55	57.1%	250 / 28	57.1%	34.21	20.11	996.18	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	71.7%	8.3%	-15.0%	11.8%	0.74	0.55	53.6%	250 / 28	57.1%	34.25	20.44	289.01	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	115.7%	12.0%	-36.2%	19.8%	0.68	0.33	83.3%	364 / 6	81.9%	95.67	9.38	139.03	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	91.6%	10.1%	-33.9%	18.1%	0.63	0.30	83.3%	376 / 6	81.9%	95.67	9.35	126.10	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	85.5%	9.6%	-34.2%	18.1%	0.60	0.28	83.3%	382 / 6	81.9%	95.67	9.42	433.67	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	96.9%	10.5%	-31.4%	18.3%	0.64	0.34	83.3%	367 / 6	81.9%	95.83	9.19	126.32	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	711.4%	36.3%	-81.6%	73.2%	0.80	0.44	—	9 / 0	100.0%	—	0.39	11.08	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	267.1%	21.2%	-34.8%	24.5%	0.91	0.61	—	3 / 0	100.0%	—	0.53	10.48	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	26.3%	13.1%	-11.0%	14.9%	0.91	1.19	50.0%	90 / 2	87.8%	145.50	2.67	28.69	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	24.0%	12.0%	-11.1%	14.8%	0.85	1.08	50.0%	94 / 2	87.8%	145.50	2.64	27.97	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	23.1%	11.6%	-11.2%	14.8%	0.82	1.04	50.0%	96 / 2	87.8%	145.50	2.67	98.82	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	20.0%	10.1%	-11.0%	14.8%	0.73	0.92	50.0%	95 / 2	87.8%	146.00	2.61	27.19	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	18.2%	9.2%	-12.0%	15.3%	0.66	0.77	50.0%	100 / 2	88.8%	148.50	2.76	28.60	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	15.7%	8.0%	-11.9%	15.1%	0.59	0.67	50.0%	87 / 2	88.8%	148.50	2.54	26.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	15.5%	7.9%	-12.0%	15.1%	0.59	0.66	50.0%	97 / 2	88.8%	148.50	2.67	95.36	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	15.8%	8.0%	-11.9%	15.2%	0.59	0.67	50.0%	90 / 2	88.8%	149.00	2.59	26.58	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	7.8%	4.0%	-13.0%	12.3%	0.39	0.31	30.8%	82 / 13	62.2%	21.77	8.80	90.34	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	6.1%	3.2%	-13.0%	12.1%	0.32	0.25	30.8%	87 / 13	62.2%	21.77	8.78	89.26	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	3.9%	2.0%	-13.4%	12.1%	0.23	0.15	30.8%	84 / 13	62.2%	21.77	8.76	307.72	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	6.0%	3.1%	-11.1%	12.3%	0.31	0.28	30.8%	90 / 13	62.2%	21.85	8.89	89.39	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	34.2%	16.8%	-20.9%	19.5%	0.90	0.80	—	113 / 0	100.0%	—	1.98	22.06	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	28.5%	14.1%	-20.9%	19.0%	0.79	0.68	—	119 / 0	100.0%	—	2.13	22.86	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	27.7%	13.8%	-20.9%	19.0%	0.78	0.66	—	114 / 0	100.0%	—	2.01	75.38	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	27.4%	13.6%	-20.9%	19.0%	0.77	0.65	—	110 / 0	100.0%	—	1.97	21.01	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	108.5%	47.3%	-57.7%	64.8%	0.92	0.82	—	3 / 0	100.0%	—	0.80	10.08	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	48.0%	23.0%	-22.2%	21.4%	1.08	1.04	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.84	9.74	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-11-04	293.0%	11.1%	-19.6%	14.1%	0.82	0.57	30.8%	594 / 26	83.6%	99.27	20.72	434.37	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-11-04	5729.3%	36.8%	-81.6%	62.9%	0.82	0.45	—	7 / 0	100.0%	—	0.13	21.05	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
contrarian200_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-14–2026-11-04	16.4%	1.2%	-25.1%	10.7%	0.16	0.05	73.1%	267 / 26	16.4%	20.54	19.26	222.45	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
contrarian200_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-14–2026-11-04	10.8%	0.8%	-26.0%	10.7%	0.13	0.03	69.2%	266 / 26	16.4%	20.54	19.31	758.73	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2010-02-12–2026-11-04	29331.9%	40.5%	-81.6%	60.6%	0.87	0.50	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.01	9.70	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2010-02-12–2026-11-04	29087.2%	40.4%	-81.6%	60.5%	0.87	0.50	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.01	33.67	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

SMA200 with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 4.6%
2014: 16.6%
2015: -2.9%
2016: -1.9%
2017: 27.4%
2018: 3.7%
2019: 13.9%
2020: 32.2%
2021: 23.5%
2022: -13.1%
2023: 26.7%
2024: 18.1%
2025: 10.4%
2026: 15.1%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 4.6%
2014: 16.6%
2015: -6.0%
2016: -7.6%
2017: 27.4%
2018: 6.2%
2019: 11.1%
2020: 28.5%
2021: 23.2%
2022: -11.7%
2023: 25.4%
2024: 17.9%
2025: 7.5%
2026: 10.8%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 4.6%
2014: 16.6%
2015: -6.0%
2016: -7.6%
2017: 27.4%
2018: 6.2%
2019: 11.1%
2020: 20.1%
2021: 23.6%
2022: -11.7%
2023: 25.5%
2024: 18.0%
2025: 5.2%
2026: 10.8%

Rules with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 4.6%
2014: 5.6%
2015: -7.1%
2016: -2.3%
2017: 18.1%
2018: -0.5%
2019: 8.9%
2020: 22.6%
2021: 17.7%
2022: -5.2%
2023: 20.5%
2024: 2.3%
2025: 5.7%
2026: 4.0%

Rules with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 4.6%
2014: 5.6%
2015: -7.1%
2016: -2.3%
2017: 18.1%
2018: -0.5%
2019: 8.9%
2020: 19.0%
2021: 17.6%
2022: -5.2%
2023: 20.6%
2024: 2.2%
2025: 4.1%
2026: 3.9%

Cash / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: 0.0%
2015: 0.0%
2016: 0.0%
2017: 0.0%
2018: 0.0%
2019: 0.0%
2020: 0.0%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 5.2%
2014: 19.1%
2015: 9.4%
2016: 7.0%
2017: 32.4%
2018: -0.2%
2019: 38.8%
2020: 48.0%
2021: 27.2%
2022: -32.5%
2023: 54.6%
2024: 25.4%
2025: 20.6%
2026: 24.0%

SMA200 with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 31.3%
2021: 23.3%
2022: -13.2%
2023: 26.6%
2024: 18.1%
2025: 10.4%
2026: 15.2%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 20.5%
2021: 22.9%
2022: -12.8%
2023: 26.5%
2024: 18.3%
2025: 8.5%
2026: 15.2%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 28.0%
2021: 23.2%
2022: -11.6%
2023: 25.8%
2024: 18.0%
2025: 7.3%
2026: 11.0%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 19.5%
2021: 23.5%
2022: -11.6%
2023: 25.3%
2024: 18.3%
2025: 5.3%
2026: 11.0%

Rules with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 21.9%
2021: 18.0%
2022: -5.3%
2023: 20.6%
2024: 2.3%
2025: 5.7%
2026: 3.9%

Rules with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 18.6%
2021: 17.7%
2022: -5.2%
2023: 20.6%
2024: 2.0%
2025: 4.3%
2026: 4.0%

Logistic regression with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 45.5%
2021: 18.6%
2022: -27.9%
2023: 8.8%
2024: 18.1%
2025: 14.5%
2026: 17.9%

Logistic regression with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 30.2%
2021: 18.8%
2022: -25.4%
2023: 8.8%
2024: 18.1%
2025: 9.4%
2026: 18.1%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 109.1%
2021: 83.0%
2022: -79.1%
2023: 196.6%
2024: 58.3%
2025: 34.2%
2026: 60.7%

Cash / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 0.0%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 48.1%
2021: 27.2%
2022: -32.3%
2023: 53.7%
2024: 25.1%
2025: 20.8%
2026: 23.9%

SMA200 with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -0.5%
2025: 10.2%
2026: 15.2%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -0.5%
2025: 8.2%
2026: 15.2%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -0.5%
2025: 7.2%
2026: 10.9%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -0.5%
2025: 5.1%
2026: 10.7%

Rules with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.9%
2025: 5.7%
2026: 4.0%

Rules with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.9%
2025: 4.3%
2026: 3.8%

Logistic regression with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -0.5%
2025: 14.6%
2026: 17.7%

Logistic regression with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -0.5%
2025: 9.5%
2026: 18.0%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -3.1%
2025: 34.0%
2026: 60.6%

Cash / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -0.2%
2025: 20.1%
2026: 23.4%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 4.6%
2014: 16.6%
2015: -2.9%
2016: -1.9%
2017: 27.4%
2018: 3.7%
2019: 13.9%
2020: 21.9%
2021: 23.4%
2022: -12.9%
2023: 26.8%
2024: 18.2%
2025: 8.4%
2026: 5.6%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 15.8%
2014: 56.9%
2015: 17.2%
2016: 11.4%
2017: 117.8%
2018: -19.8%
2019: 133.5%
2020: 109.9%
2021: 82.9%
2022: -79.0%
2023: 196.6%
2024: 57.9%
2025: 34.3%
2026: 19.0%

/ Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: -0.1%
2015: 11.0%
2016: 6.9%
2017: 0.0%
2018: -6.1%
2019: 14.1%
2020: 0.2%
2021: 0.0%
2022: -20.3%
2023: 11.2%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 1.0%
2026: 2.1%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2010: 80.4%
2011: -7.9%
2012: 51.4%
2013: 138.1%
2014: 56.8%
2015: 17.2%
2016: 11.3%
2017: 117.7%
2018: -19.8%
2019: 133.4%
2020: 109.9%
2021: 82.9%
2022: -79.0%
2023: 195.2%
2024: 57.2%
2025: 33.4%
2026: 18.4%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations
2013-11-13–2019-06-13 Final label exit 2019-06-21	2019-06-24–2019-12-19 Final label exit 2019-12-30	2019-12-31–2020-06-30	1404 / 126
2013-11-13–2019-12-11 Final label exit 2019-12-19	2019-12-20–2020-06-22 Final label exit 2020-06-30	2020-07-01–2020-12-29	1530 / 126
2013-11-13–2020-06-12 Final label exit 2020-06-22	2020-06-23–2020-12-18 Final label exit 2020-12-29	2020-12-30–2021-06-30	1656 / 126
2013-11-13–2020-12-10 Final label exit 2020-12-18	2020-12-21–2021-06-22 Final label exit 2021-06-30	2021-07-01–2021-12-29	1782 / 126
2013-11-13–2021-06-14 Final label exit 2021-06-22	2021-06-23–2021-12-20 Final label exit 2021-12-29	2021-12-30–2022-06-30	1908 / 126
2013-11-13–2021-12-10 Final label exit 2021-12-20	2021-12-21–2022-06-22 Final label exit 2022-06-30	2022-07-01–2022-12-29	2034 / 126
2013-11-13–2022-06-13 Final label exit 2022-06-22	2022-06-23–2022-12-20 Final label exit 2022-12-29	2022-12-30–2023-07-03	2160 / 126
2013-11-13–2022-12-12 Final label exit 2022-12-20	2022-12-21–2023-06-23 Final label exit 2023-07-03	2023-07-05–2024-01-02	2286 / 126
2013-11-13–2023-06-14 Final label exit 2023-06-23	2023-06-26–2023-12-21 Final label exit 2024-01-02	2024-01-03–2024-07-03	2412 / 126
2013-11-13–2023-12-13 Final label exit 2023-12-21	2023-12-22–2024-06-25 Final label exit 2024-07-03	2024-07-05–2025-01-02	2538 / 126
2013-11-13–2024-06-14 Final label exit 2024-06-25	2024-06-26–2024-12-23 Final label exit 2025-01-02	2025-01-03–2025-07-08	2664 / 126
2013-11-13–2024-12-13 Final label exit 2024-12-23	2024-12-24–2025-06-27 Final label exit 2025-07-08	2025-07-09–2026-01-06	2790 / 126
2013-11-13–2025-06-18 Final label exit 2025-06-27	2025-06-30–2025-12-26 Final label exit 2026-01-06	2026-01-07–2026-07-09	2916 / 126
2013-11-13–2025-12-17 Final label exit 2025-12-26	2025-12-29–2026-06-30 Final label exit 2026-07-09	2026-07-10–2026-10-06	3042 / 126

SOXL · Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF

Actual ETF history 2010-03-11–2026-10-06 (valid: 4169; missing/inconsistent: 0 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2013-11-14–2026-10-06.

Transitioned from PHLX to ICE/NYSE Semiconductor around August 2021. SOXX transitioned in June 2021, leaving a timing difference. The complete history of exact effective dates has not been verified.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	690.1%	17.4%	-37.8%	22.7%	0.82	0.46	28.6%	952 / 42	79.6%	53.36	41.40	1132.96	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	513.3%	15.1%	-34.5%	19.5%	0.82	0.44	23.8%	857 / 42	79.6%	53.36	32.97	2926.87	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	664.5%	17.1%	-36.4%	19.6%	0.91	0.47	45.2%	906 / 42	79.6%	53.38	35.25	1070.18	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	916.6%	19.7%	-36.0%	22.7%	0.91	0.55	46.7%	887 / 15	79.7%	149.93	29.24	994.38	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	725.3%	17.8%	-32.0%	19.5%	0.94	0.56	46.7%	836 / 15	79.7%	149.93	22.81	729.26	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	676.8%	17.2%	-32.4%	19.5%	0.92	0.53	46.7%	833 / 15	79.7%	149.93	22.64	2440.06	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	740.1%	17.9%	-31.9%	19.6%	0.94	0.56	53.3%	876 / 15	79.7%	150.00	24.88	792.25	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	238.7%	9.9%	-30.1%	15.8%	0.68	0.33	52.5%	567 / 59	50.2%	27.47	42.74	764.06	Advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	199.2%	8.9%	-28.5%	14.8%	0.65	0.31	52.5%	547 / 59	50.2%	27.47	39.30	688.35	Advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	168.8%	8.0%	-29.1%	14.8%	0.59	0.27	50.8%	541 / 59	50.2%	27.47	39.00	2254.41	Advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	179.1%	8.3%	-21.0%	14.9%	0.61	0.39	62.7%	581 / 59	50.2%	27.49	40.95	663.98	Advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	2800.9%	29.8%	-45.5%	32.1%	0.98	0.66	—	19 / 0	100.0%	—	0.24	14.76	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	213.0%	18.4%	-37.6%	26.8%	0.77	0.49	26.1%	529 / 23	76.4%	41.78	23.04	349.22	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	167.8%	15.7%	-33.6%	21.6%	0.79	0.47	26.1%	482 / 23	76.4%	41.78	17.59	260.61	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	156.9%	15.0%	-34.4%	21.6%	0.76	0.44	21.7%	473 / 23	76.4%	41.78	17.44	884.42	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	189.3%	17.0%	-36.3%	21.7%	0.83	0.47	43.5%	504 / 23	76.4%	41.83	18.96	307.94	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	240.5%	19.9%	-35.8%	26.8%	0.81	0.55	27.3%	533 / 11	76.1%	87.09	17.45	288.54	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	178.0%	16.3%	-32.0%	21.6%	0.81	0.51	27.3%	467 / 11	76.1%	87.09	13.32	203.94	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	168.5%	15.7%	-32.4%	21.6%	0.79	0.49	27.3%	473 / 11	76.1%	87.09	13.28	701.42	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	193.6%	17.3%	-31.9%	21.7%	0.84	0.54	27.3%	491 / 11	76.1%	87.18	14.57	231.09	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	80.1%	9.1%	-30.1%	18.0%	0.58	0.30	45.2%	303 / 31	45.1%	24.58	22.90	267.85	Advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	57.6%	7.0%	-28.4%	16.3%	0.50	0.24	45.2%	291 / 31	45.1%	24.58	20.23	227.58	Advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	49.6%	6.1%	-29.0%	16.3%	0.45	0.21	45.2%	294 / 31	45.1%	24.58	20.37	779.68	Advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	63.7%	7.6%	-21.0%	16.3%	0.53	0.36	54.8%	300 / 31	45.1%	24.61	21.37	236.12	Advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	138.0%	13.7%	-41.1%	27.3%	0.61	0.33	75.0%	504 / 8	67.2%	135.00	15.37	196.86	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	107.8%	11.4%	-31.6%	20.8%	0.63	0.36	62.5%	433 / 8	67.2%	135.00	12.16	147.26	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	99.3%	10.7%	-32.2%	20.7%	0.60	0.33	62.5%	438 / 8	67.2%	135.00	12.13	502.93	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	91.6%	10.1%	-36.0%	20.8%	0.57	0.28	50.0%	462 / 8	67.2%	135.13	12.94	150.03	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	819.6%	38.9%	-90.4%	114.4%	0.87	0.43	—	7 / 0	100.0%	—	0.48	10.33	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	622.8%	34.0%	-45.3%	38.6%	0.95	0.75	—	5 / 0	100.0%	—	0.44	10.71	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	98.1%	43.4%	-27.6%	31.3%	1.32	1.57	20.0%	168 / 5	73.6%	2.40	6.65	82.81	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	64.6%	30.0%	-13.9%	21.8%	1.33	2.17	20.0%	138 / 5	73.6%	2.40	4.93	56.57	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	61.4%	28.7%	-14.1%	21.8%	1.27	2.04	0.0%	138 / 5	73.6%	2.40	4.88	193.88	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	58.6%	27.5%	-17.2%	22.1%	1.22	1.60	0.0%	156 / 5	73.4%	2.40	5.41	59.40	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	108.8%	47.4%	-27.6%	31.1%	1.42	1.72	0.0%	158 / 2	71.5%	2.50	5.35	69.81	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	71.8%	33.0%	-13.5%	21.6%	1.44	2.45	0.0%	126 / 2	71.5%	2.50	3.61	42.88	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	70.7%	32.6%	-13.6%	21.6%	1.42	2.39	0.0%	126 / 2	71.5%	2.50	3.54	146.81	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	73.0%	33.5%	-14.2%	21.7%	1.45	2.35	0.0%	158 / 2	71.5%	3.00	4.31	51.22	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	43.8%	21.1%	-14.2%	18.8%	1.12	1.48	50.0%	82 / 8	37.6%	21.75	6.04	63.96	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	26.8%	13.3%	-14.5%	16.0%	0.87	0.92	50.0%	76 / 8	37.6%	21.75	4.98	50.74	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	25.3%	12.6%	-14.9%	16.0%	0.83	0.85	50.0%	79 / 8	37.6%	21.75	5.01	177.60	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	34.6%	16.9%	-13.3%	15.6%	1.09	1.27	62.5%	87 / 8	37.3%	21.75	5.41	59.99	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	97.3%	43.1%	-16.9%	25.5%	1.55	2.55	100.0%	135 / 2	66.5%	127.00	4.39	57.79	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	72.6%	33.3%	-12.5%	19.6%	1.58	2.67	100.0%	118 / 2	66.5%	127.00	3.26	41.01	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	71.8%	33.0%	-12.2%	19.6%	1.57	2.70	100.0%	121 / 2	66.5%	127.00	3.28	143.92	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	76.9%	35.1%	-12.1%	19.6%	1.64	2.90	100.0%	136 / 2	66.5%	127.50	3.61	46.52	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	436.3%	142.4%	-76.2%	126.5%	1.34	1.87	—	3 / 0	100.0%	—	0.46	10.01	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	166.8%	67.7%	-34.1%	42.7%	1.43	1.99	—	2 / 0	100.0%	—	0.67	9.97	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-11-04	487.3%	14.6%	-33.7%	19.6%	0.80	0.43	27.9%	878 / 43	79.6%	60.37	33.56	901.78	Advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-11-04	7474.7%	39.6%	-90.4%	95.8%	0.83	0.44	—	9 / 0	100.0%	—	0.08	20.42	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
contrarian200_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-14–2026-11-04	43.7%	2.8%	-23.9%	12.4%	0.29	0.12	78.6%	348 / 42	20.4%	15.76	26.38	331.22	Advantage unconfirmed
contrarian200_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-14–2026-11-04	35.2%	2.4%	-24.3%	12.4%	0.25	0.10	78.6%	354 / 42	20.4%	15.76	26.47	1125.98	Advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2010-03-12–2026-11-04	10122.9%	32.0%	-89.9%	90.2%	0.76	0.36	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.04	9.96	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2010-03-12–2026-11-04	10122.7%	32.0%	-89.9%	90.2%	0.76	0.36	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.04	34.87	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

SMA200 with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 5.3%
2014: 17.5%
2015: -10.8%
2016: 29.9%
2017: 34.1%
2018: -2.6%
2019: 31.2%
2020: 19.9%
2021: 36.5%
2022: -21.8%
2023: 30.4%
2024: -3.2%
2025: 13.1%
2026: 75.9%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 5.3%
2014: 17.6%
2015: -5.5%
2016: 34.5%
2017: 33.7%
2018: 3.9%
2019: 36.1%
2020: 35.5%
2021: 35.8%
2022: -27.2%
2023: 30.5%
2024: -7.2%
2025: 19.8%
2026: 75.7%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 5.3%
2014: 17.6%
2015: -5.5%
2016: 34.4%
2017: 33.8%
2018: 4.2%
2019: 34.2%
2020: 24.4%
2021: 32.9%
2022: -22.0%
2023: 28.8%
2024: -2.4%
2025: 13.5%
2026: 52.4%

Rules with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 4.1%
2014: 11.7%
2015: -2.7%
2016: 11.1%
2017: 27.3%
2018: -2.7%
2019: 20.3%
2020: 10.0%
2021: 1.0%
2022: -4.4%
2023: 19.9%
2024: -1.3%
2025: -7.3%
2026: 55.3%

Rules with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 4.1%
2014: 11.7%
2015: -2.7%
2016: 11.1%
2017: 27.3%
2018: -2.8%
2019: 20.0%
2020: 4.1%
2021: 3.1%
2022: -4.2%
2023: 21.4%
2024: 1.1%
2025: -7.2%
2026: 36.8%

Cash / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: 0.0%
2015: 0.0%
2016: 0.0%
2017: 0.0%
2018: 0.0%
2019: 0.0%
2020: 0.0%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 5.8%
2014: 29.7%
2015: -2.1%
2016: 38.2%
2017: 39.5%
2018: -6.4%
2019: 62.0%
2020: 52.4%
2021: 43.9%
2022: -34.9%
2023: 66.6%
2024: 12.8%
2025: 40.9%
2026: 95.4%

SMA200 with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 18.2%
2021: 34.1%
2022: -21.6%
2023: 31.2%
2024: -3.4%
2025: 13.3%
2026: 75.7%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 13.9%
2021: 34.0%
2022: -17.8%
2023: 29.7%
2024: -0.4%
2025: 8.3%
2026: 52.6%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 35.4%
2021: 34.9%
2022: -27.2%
2023: 30.7%
2024: -7.1%
2025: 20.0%
2026: 75.6%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 23.0%
2021: 33.2%
2022: -22.3%
2023: 28.9%
2024: -2.4%
2025: 13.5%
2026: 52.9%

Rules with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 9.0%
2021: 1.7%
2022: -4.5%
2023: 19.9%
2024: -1.3%
2025: -7.3%
2026: 54.9%

Rules with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 3.7%
2021: 2.7%
2022: -4.5%
2023: 21.1%
2024: 1.0%
2025: -7.3%
2026: 36.6%

Logistic regression with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 12.3%
2021: 39.5%
2022: -36.8%
2023: 20.8%
2024: -2.2%
2025: 25.7%
2026: 61.8%

Logistic regression with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: -1.1%
2021: 35.9%
2022: -26.6%
2023: 20.8%
2024: -1.5%
2025: 24.4%
2026: 42.2%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 68.2%
2021: 118.6%
2022: -85.5%
2023: 225.5%
2024: -12.0%
2025: 54.9%
2026: 290.0%

Cash / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 0.0%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 50.6%
2021: 43.1%
2022: -34.6%
2023: 66.1%
2024: 12.6%
2025: 40.5%
2026: 95.3%

SMA200 with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.1%
2025: 13.1%
2026: 74.9%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.1%
2025: 8.1%
2026: 52.1%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -0.3%
2025: 19.7%
2026: 75.0%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -0.2%
2025: 12.6%
2026: 52.9%

Rules with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: -7.2%
2026: 55.0%

Rules with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: -7.4%
2026: 36.9%

Logistic regression with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -2.7%
2025: 25.5%
2026: 61.5%

Logistic regression with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -2.5%
2025: 24.8%
2026: 41.8%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -11.2%
2025: 55.0%
2026: 289.9%

Cash / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -2.6%
2025: 40.4%
2026: 95.2%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 5.3%
2014: 17.5%
2015: -10.3%
2016: 29.4%
2017: 34.1%
2018: -1.5%
2019: 29.5%
2020: 15.6%
2021: 33.4%
2022: -17.8%
2023: 29.7%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 8.1%
2026: 34.5%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 18.1%
2014: 95.3%
2015: -20.6%
2016: 123.5%
2017: 141.0%
2018: -38.8%
2019: 230.4%
2020: 70.9%
2021: 118.7%
2022: -85.6%
2023: 225.6%
2024: -12.0%
2025: 54.8%
2026: 58.7%

/ Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: 7.7%
2015: 8.3%
2016: 2.6%
2017: 0.0%
2018: -5.7%
2019: 11.8%
2020: 3.4%
2021: 0.0%
2022: -8.6%
2023: 12.0%
2024: 6.6%
2025: 4.6%
2026: -3.4%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2010: 25.8%
2011: -47.9%
2012: 3.6%
2013: 155.8%
2014: 95.1%
2015: -20.6%
2016: 123.4%
2017: 135.1%
2018: -38.0%
2019: 220.5%
2020: 68.6%
2021: 117.5%
2022: -85.2%
2023: 215.5%
2024: -11.8%
2025: 52.6%
2026: 57.4%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations
2013-11-13–2019-06-13 Final label exit 2019-06-21	2019-06-24–2019-12-19 Final label exit 2019-12-30	2019-12-31–2020-06-30	1404 / 126
2013-11-13–2019-12-11 Final label exit 2019-12-19	2019-12-20–2020-06-22 Final label exit 2020-06-30	2020-07-01–2020-12-29	1530 / 126
2013-11-13–2020-06-12 Final label exit 2020-06-22	2020-06-23–2020-12-18 Final label exit 2020-12-29	2020-12-30–2021-06-30	1656 / 126
2013-11-13–2020-12-10 Final label exit 2020-12-18	2020-12-21–2021-06-22 Final label exit 2021-06-30	2021-07-01–2021-12-29	1782 / 126
2013-11-13–2021-06-14 Final label exit 2021-06-22	2021-06-23–2021-12-20 Final label exit 2021-12-29	2021-12-30–2022-06-30	1908 / 126
2013-11-13–2021-12-10 Final label exit 2021-12-20	2021-12-21–2022-06-22 Final label exit 2022-06-30	2022-07-01–2022-12-29	2034 / 126
2013-11-13–2022-06-13 Final label exit 2022-06-22	2022-06-23–2022-12-20 Final label exit 2022-12-29	2022-12-30–2023-07-03	2160 / 126
2013-11-13–2022-12-12 Final label exit 2022-12-20	2022-12-21–2023-06-23 Final label exit 2023-07-03	2023-07-05–2024-01-02	2286 / 126
2013-11-13–2023-06-14 Final label exit 2023-06-23	2023-06-26–2023-12-21 Final label exit 2024-01-02	2024-01-03–2024-07-03	2412 / 126
2013-11-13–2023-12-13 Final label exit 2023-12-21	2023-12-22–2024-06-25 Final label exit 2024-07-03	2024-07-05–2025-01-02	2538 / 126
2013-11-13–2024-06-14 Final label exit 2024-06-25	2024-06-26–2024-12-23 Final label exit 2025-01-02	2025-01-03–2025-07-08	2664 / 126
2013-11-13–2024-12-13 Final label exit 2024-12-23	2024-12-24–2025-06-27 Final label exit 2025-07-08	2025-07-09–2026-01-06	2790 / 126
2013-11-13–2025-06-18 Final label exit 2025-06-27	2025-06-30–2025-12-26 Final label exit 2026-01-06	2026-01-07–2026-07-09	2916 / 126
2013-11-13–2025-12-17 Final label exit 2025-12-26	2025-12-29–2026-06-30 Final label exit 2026-07-09	2026-07-10–2026-10-06	3042 / 126

SPXL · Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X ETF

Actual ETF history 2008-11-05–2026-10-06 (valid: 4506; missing/inconsistent: 0 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2013-11-14–2026-10-06.

The current leverage multiple has been checked. All historical prospectuses have not been exhaustively reconciled.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	126.6%	6.6%	-21.0%	10.3%	0.67	0.31	31.6%	410 / 38	82.7%	67.26	25.65	376.01	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	106.1%	5.8%	-22.2%	10.2%	0.60	0.26	28.9%	417 / 38	82.7%	67.26	25.35	1233.63	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	113.1%	6.0%	-20.3%	10.3%	0.62	0.30	36.8%	424 / 38	82.7%	67.29	25.88	364.96	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	109.9%	5.9%	-21.9%	10.5%	0.60	0.27	58.3%	376 / 12	82.6%	212.58	11.89	164.77	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	106.9%	5.8%	-22.0%	10.4%	0.60	0.26	58.3%	369 / 12	82.6%	212.58	11.70	161.12	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	101.9%	5.6%	-22.3%	10.4%	0.58	0.25	58.3%	382 / 12	82.6%	212.58	11.75	559.57	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	153.2%	7.5%	-17.2%	10.5%	0.74	0.43	66.7%	387 / 12	82.6%	212.67	12.02	190.86	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	65.7%	4.0%	-13.1%	7.3%	0.57	0.30	49.1%	262 / 57	56.5%	31.95	35.96	427.46	Advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	63.8%	3.9%	-13.1%	7.2%	0.57	0.30	49.1%	262 / 57	56.5%	31.95	35.78	423.52	Advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	50.0%	3.2%	-14.4%	7.2%	0.48	0.22	45.6%	275 / 57	56.5%	31.95	36.01	1419.58	Advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	38.2%	2.5%	-15.8%	7.4%	0.38	0.16	47.4%	288 / 57	56.5%	31.96	36.35	406.94	Advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	431.9%	13.8%	-33.4%	16.9%	0.85	0.41	—	14 / 0	100.0%	—	0.61	14.38	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	62.4%	7.4%	-20.9%	11.1%	0.70	0.36	28.6%	220 / 21	79.0%	57.95	13.70	170.01	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	57.9%	7.0%	-20.9%	10.8%	0.68	0.34	23.8%	226 / 21	79.0%	57.95	13.36	162.49	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	53.5%	6.5%	-22.1%	10.8%	0.64	0.30	23.8%	236 / 21	79.0%	57.95	13.50	563.23	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	51.3%	6.3%	-20.2%	11.0%	0.61	0.31	28.6%	223 / 21	79.0%	58.00	13.75	161.80	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	50.3%	6.2%	-21.8%	11.2%	0.60	0.28	50.0%	211 / 8	79.4%	153.13	7.39	86.12	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	48.5%	6.0%	-21.9%	11.0%	0.59	0.28	50.0%	196 / 8	79.4%	153.13	6.84	79.19	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	46.6%	5.8%	-22.2%	11.0%	0.57	0.26	50.0%	209 / 8	79.4%	153.13	7.25	291.21	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	68.8%	8.1%	-17.2%	11.1%	0.76	0.47	50.0%	229 / 8	79.4%	153.25	7.39	95.40	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	54.7%	6.7%	-9.5%	8.4%	0.82	0.70	50.0%	153 / 28	57.8%	34.64	18.46	235.87	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	53.6%	6.6%	-9.5%	8.1%	0.83	0.69	50.0%	165 / 28	57.8%	34.64	18.52	235.42	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	46.8%	5.8%	-9.5%	8.1%	0.75	0.61	46.4%	156 / 28	57.8%	34.64	18.30	798.38	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	27.7%	3.7%	-14.8%	8.4%	0.48	0.25	50.0%	158 / 28	57.8%	34.68	18.45	207.21	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	49.0%	6.1%	-33.7%	15.9%	0.45	0.18	100.0%	248 / 3	72.2%	346.33	5.85	68.60	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	35.0%	4.5%	-29.6%	14.2%	0.39	0.15	66.7%	226 / 3	72.2%	346.33	5.52	59.14	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	33.7%	4.4%	-29.6%	14.2%	0.38	0.15	66.7%	230 / 3	72.2%	346.33	5.71	213.29	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	33.4%	4.4%	-30.9%	14.4%	0.37	0.14	66.7%	224 / 3	72.2%	346.67	5.55	58.91	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	372.6%	25.8%	-76.7%	59.3%	0.69	0.34	—	7 / 0	100.0%	—	0.55	10.57	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	161.4%	15.3%	-33.6%	19.8%	0.82	0.45	—	4 / 0	100.0%	—	0.69	10.98	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	12.5%	6.4%	-9.9%	10.1%	0.67	0.65	33.3%	31 / 3	88.4%	98.00	2.39	24.34	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	12.0%	6.2%	-9.8%	10.0%	0.65	0.63	33.3%	29 / 3	88.4%	98.00	2.34	23.75	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	11.5%	5.9%	-10.1%	10.0%	0.63	0.59	33.3%	31 / 3	88.4%	98.00	2.36	83.69	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	10.9%	5.6%	-10.2%	10.1%	0.60	0.55	33.3%	31 / 3	88.4%	98.33	2.37	24.05	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	10.9%	5.6%	-8.9%	10.2%	0.59	0.63	50.0%	31 / 2	88.8%	148.50	1.91	19.57	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	10.1%	5.2%	-8.8%	10.1%	0.56	0.59	50.0%	33 / 2	88.8%	148.50	1.96	19.97	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	9.7%	5.0%	-8.9%	10.1%	0.53	0.56	50.0%	33 / 2	88.8%	148.50	1.97	69.88	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	9.9%	5.1%	-9.0%	10.2%	0.55	0.57	50.0%	35 / 2	88.8%	149.00	1.98	20.09	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	4.8%	2.5%	-8.2%	7.5%	0.37	0.31	27.3%	35 / 11	62.4%	25.91	6.98	72.04	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	4.6%	2.4%	-8.2%	7.5%	0.36	0.29	27.3%	41 / 11	62.4%	25.91	7.04	72.54	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	2.8%	1.5%	-8.5%	7.4%	0.23	0.17	18.2%	35 / 11	62.4%	25.91	6.89	246.30	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.8%	0.9%	-7.6%	7.7%	0.16	0.12	27.3%	38 / 11	62.4%	26.00	7.04	70.63	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	12.0%	6.1%	-16.7%	13.4%	0.52	0.37	100.0%	45 / 1	71.9%	154.00	1.74	17.70	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	10.1%	5.2%	-16.7%	13.2%	0.45	0.31	100.0%	45 / 1	71.9%	154.00	1.71	17.25	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	9.7%	5.0%	-16.7%	13.2%	0.44	0.30	0.0%	43 / 1	71.9%	154.00	1.69	59.16	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	9.8%	5.0%	-16.7%	13.2%	0.44	0.30	100.0%	45 / 1	71.9%	155.00	1.70	17.03	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	66.5%	30.8%	-48.7%	47.8%	0.80	0.63	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.86	9.97	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	31.4%	15.5%	-17.9%	15.8%	0.99	0.86	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.86	9.56	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-11-04	116.6%	6.1%	-20.9%	10.2%	0.64	0.29	28.9%	408 / 38	82.9%	67.26	25.21	365.81	Advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-11-04	2029.7%	26.6%	-76.7%	50.5%	0.72	0.35	—	10 / 0	100.0%	—	0.25	14.88	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
current200_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-14–2026-11-04	117.7%	6.2%	-21.0%	10.2%	0.64	0.29	28.9%	419 / 38	82.9%	67.29	25.24	368.27	Advantage unconfirmed
current200_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-14–2026-11-04	103.9%	5.6%	-22.1%	10.2%	0.59	0.26	28.9%	414 / 38	82.9%	67.29	25.35	1246.39	Advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2008-11-06–2026-11-04	6705.2%	26.4%	-73.5%	50.6%	0.72	0.36	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.07	9.71	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2008-11-06–2026-11-04	6704.9%	26.4%	-73.5%	50.7%	0.72	0.36	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.07	34.01	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

SMA200 with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 2.9%
2014: 9.0%
2015: -9.0%
2016: 9.0%
2017: 17.8%
2018: -4.8%
2019: 11.3%
2020: 7.5%
2021: 24.7%
2022: -15.3%
2023: 5.9%
2024: 17.7%
2025: 6.5%
2026: 8.2%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 2.9%
2014: 4.8%
2015: -10.9%
2016: 8.4%
2017: 18.0%
2018: -0.0%
2019: 13.1%
2020: 0.1%
2021: 24.7%
2022: -16.4%
2023: 8.6%
2024: 17.8%
2025: 7.7%
2026: 5.1%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 2.9%
2014: 4.8%
2015: -10.9%
2016: 8.4%
2017: 18.0%
2018: -0.0%
2019: 13.1%
2020: -0.7%
2021: 24.5%
2022: -16.4%
2023: 8.6%
2024: 17.6%
2025: 7.3%
2026: 5.2%

Rules with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 1.7%
2014: -0.3%
2015: -8.4%
2016: 0.5%
2017: 11.1%
2018: -0.4%
2019: 3.9%
2020: 3.9%
2021: 15.6%
2022: -2.9%
2023: 13.6%
2024: 9.6%
2025: 7.3%
2026: -0.9%

Rules with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 1.7%
2014: -0.3%
2015: -8.4%
2016: 0.5%
2017: 11.1%
2018: -0.4%
2019: 3.9%
2020: 3.6%
2021: 15.4%
2022: -3.0%
2023: 13.5%
2024: 9.6%
2025: 6.7%
2026: -0.9%

Cash / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: 0.0%
2015: 0.0%
2016: 0.0%
2017: 0.0%
2018: 0.0%
2019: 0.0%
2020: 0.0%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 3.3%
2014: 13.4%
2015: 1.2%
2016: 12.1%
2017: 21.5%
2018: -4.5%
2019: 30.9%
2020: 18.3%
2021: 28.4%
2022: -18.0%
2023: 25.9%
2024: 24.6%
2025: 17.5%
2026: 15.0%

SMA200 with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 7.3%
2021: 24.5%
2022: -15.3%
2023: 6.0%
2024: 17.5%
2025: 6.6%
2026: 8.3%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 5.1%
2021: 24.5%
2022: -15.2%
2023: 6.0%
2024: 17.5%
2025: 5.9%
2026: 8.0%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 0.1%
2021: 24.6%
2022: -16.3%
2023: 8.6%
2024: 17.3%
2025: 7.6%
2026: 5.1%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: -0.4%
2021: 24.3%
2022: -16.3%
2023: 8.7%
2024: 17.4%
2025: 7.0%
2026: 4.9%

Rules with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 3.9%
2021: 15.8%
2022: -2.9%
2023: 13.7%
2024: 9.6%
2025: 7.2%
2026: -0.8%

Rules with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 3.6%
2021: 15.6%
2022: -2.9%
2023: 13.6%
2024: 9.6%
2025: 6.9%
2026: -0.7%

Logistic regression with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 3.7%
2021: 24.3%
2022: -18.5%
2023: 6.2%
2024: 17.5%
2025: 3.6%
2026: 9.6%

Logistic regression with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: -5.0%
2021: 24.4%
2022: -19.0%
2023: 6.3%
2024: 17.7%
2025: 2.5%
2026: 10.0%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 10.3%
2021: 98.3%
2022: -56.3%
2023: 68.9%
2024: 63.3%
2025: 31.7%
2026: 36.2%

Cash / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 0.0%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 18.0%
2021: 28.1%
2022: -17.9%
2023: 25.7%
2024: 24.2%
2025: 17.5%
2026: 14.9%

SMA200 with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.9%
2025: 6.3%
2026: 7.9%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.9%
2025: 5.8%
2026: 8.0%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.9%
2025: 7.7%
2026: 5.0%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.9%
2025: 6.9%
2026: 4.9%

Rules with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.3%
2025: 7.2%
2026: -1.0%

Rules with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.3%
2025: 6.9%
2026: -0.9%

Logistic regression with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.9%
2025: 4.0%
2026: 9.8%

Logistic regression with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.9%
2025: 2.3%
2026: 9.7%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -6.8%
2025: 31.5%
2026: 35.8%

Cash / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.6%
2025: 16.8%
2026: 14.3%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 2.9%
2014: 9.0%
2015: -9.0%
2016: 9.0%
2017: 17.8%
2018: -4.8%
2019: 11.3%
2020: 4.9%
2021: 24.8%
2022: -15.3%
2023: 6.2%
2024: 17.7%
2025: 6.0%
2026: 6.1%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 9.9%
2014: 37.4%
2015: -5.5%
2016: 30.0%
2017: 70.9%
2018: -25.3%
2019: 102.1%
2020: 9.9%
2021: 98.3%
2022: -56.4%
2023: 69.0%
2024: 63.5%
2025: 32.0%
2026: 28.4%

/ Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 3.4%
2014: 9.2%
2015: -8.9%
2016: 9.0%
2017: 17.8%
2018: -5.0%
2019: 11.5%
2020: 5.2%
2021: 24.4%
2022: -15.3%
2023: 6.0%
2024: 17.6%
2025: 5.9%
2026: 6.3%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2008: -26.1%
2009: 60.8%
2010: 33.7%
2011: -13.1%
2012: 37.9%
2013: 106.3%
2014: 35.6%
2015: -5.3%
2016: 28.9%
2017: 68.8%
2018: -23.7%
2019: 94.3%
2020: 9.1%
2021: 94.0%
2022: -55.1%
2023: 64.9%
2024: 60.5%
2025: 30.5%
2026: 27.4%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations
2013-11-13–2019-06-13 Final label exit 2019-06-21	2019-06-24–2019-12-19 Final label exit 2019-12-30	2019-12-31–2020-06-30	1404 / 126
2013-11-13–2019-12-11 Final label exit 2019-12-19	2019-12-20–2020-06-22 Final label exit 2020-06-30	2020-07-01–2020-12-29	1530 / 126
2013-11-13–2020-06-12 Final label exit 2020-06-22	2020-06-23–2020-12-18 Final label exit 2020-12-29	2020-12-30–2021-06-30	1656 / 126
2013-11-13–2020-12-10 Final label exit 2020-12-18	2020-12-21–2021-06-22 Final label exit 2021-06-30	2021-07-01–2021-12-29	1782 / 126
2013-11-13–2021-06-14 Final label exit 2021-06-22	2021-06-23–2021-12-20 Final label exit 2021-12-29	2021-12-30–2022-06-30	1908 / 126
2013-11-13–2021-12-10 Final label exit 2021-12-20	2021-12-21–2022-06-22 Final label exit 2022-06-30	2022-07-01–2022-12-29	2034 / 126
2013-11-13–2022-06-13 Final label exit 2022-06-22	2022-06-23–2022-12-20 Final label exit 2022-12-29	2022-12-30–2023-07-03	2160 / 126
2013-11-13–2022-12-12 Final label exit 2022-12-20	2022-12-21–2023-06-23 Final label exit 2023-07-03	2023-07-05–2024-01-02	2286 / 126
2013-11-13–2023-06-14 Final label exit 2023-06-23	2023-06-26–2023-12-21 Final label exit 2024-01-02	2024-01-03–2024-07-03	2412 / 126
2013-11-13–2023-12-13 Final label exit 2023-12-21	2023-12-22–2024-06-25 Final label exit 2024-07-03	2024-07-05–2025-01-02	2538 / 126
2013-11-13–2024-06-14 Final label exit 2024-06-25	2024-06-26–2024-12-23 Final label exit 2025-01-02	2025-01-03–2025-07-08	2664 / 126
2013-11-13–2024-12-13 Final label exit 2024-12-23	2024-12-24–2025-06-27 Final label exit 2025-07-08	2025-07-09–2026-01-06	2790 / 126
2013-11-13–2025-06-18 Final label exit 2025-06-27	2025-06-30–2025-12-26 Final label exit 2026-01-06	2026-01-07–2026-07-09	2916 / 126
2013-11-13–2025-12-17 Final label exit 2025-12-26	2025-12-29–2026-06-30 Final label exit 2026-07-09	2026-07-10–2026-10-06	3042 / 126

TECL · Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X ETF

Actual ETF history 2008-12-30–2026-10-06 (valid: 4469; missing/inconsistent: 8 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2013-11-14–2026-10-06.

Actual ETF history includes changes to sector classifications and constituents. Current constituents are not imposed on historical periods.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	502.0%	14.9%	-23.4%	15.7%	0.97	0.64	41.4%	642 / 29	84.8%	90.45	25.81	626.60	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	395.7%	13.2%	-20.7%	15.2%	0.90	0.64	37.9%	625 / 29	84.8%	90.45	24.63	1879.26	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	429.1%	13.8%	-20.6%	15.4%	0.92	0.67	51.7%	649 / 29	84.8%	90.48	25.74	574.18	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	479.7%	14.6%	-22.8%	15.9%	0.94	0.64	58.3%	653 / 12	84.9%	218.83	18.35	455.02	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	413.1%	13.5%	-21.0%	15.4%	0.91	0.64	58.3%	655 / 12	84.9%	218.83	17.71	412.89	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	388.6%	13.1%	-20.8%	15.4%	0.88	0.63	58.3%	616 / 12	84.9%	218.83	17.13	1356.63	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	364.5%	12.7%	-21.5%	15.8%	0.83	0.59	50.0%	616 / 12	84.9%	218.92	17.58	375.79	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	186.7%	8.5%	-24.4%	11.5%	0.77	0.35	55.8%	425 / 52	59.4%	36.63	35.56	557.09	Advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	172.2%	8.1%	-24.1%	11.3%	0.75	0.33	55.8%	420 / 52	59.4%	36.63	34.69	530.56	Advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	147.0%	7.3%	-24.8%	11.3%	0.68	0.29	55.8%	419 / 52	59.4%	36.63	34.82	1759.59	Advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	149.9%	7.4%	-26.2%	11.4%	0.68	0.28	53.8%	444 / 52	59.4%	36.65	35.43	523.56	Advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-06	1257.9%	22.4%	-33.4%	23.1%	1.00	0.67	—	24 / 0	100.0%	—	0.35	14.08	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	192.5%	17.2%	-23.2%	18.3%	0.96	0.74	42.9%	360 / 14	81.1%	89.43	13.35	220.48	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	168.2%	15.7%	-20.0%	17.4%	0.93	0.78	42.9%	373 / 14	81.1%	89.43	12.93	201.96	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	161.2%	15.3%	-20.3%	17.4%	0.91	0.75	42.9%	368 / 14	81.1%	89.43	13.06	702.17	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	176.4%	16.2%	-20.5%	17.5%	0.95	0.79	57.1%	379 / 14	81.1%	89.50	13.39	215.79	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	175.6%	16.2%	-22.0%	18.5%	0.91	0.73	50.0%	382 / 8	81.5%	157.38	10.71	177.35	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	145.0%	14.2%	-20.4%	17.6%	0.84	0.70	50.0%	374 / 8	81.5%	157.38	10.27	156.57	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	138.0%	13.7%	-20.8%	17.6%	0.82	0.66	50.0%	373 / 8	81.5%	157.38	10.31	540.24	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	139.2%	13.8%	-21.4%	18.1%	0.80	0.64	37.5%	379 / 8	81.5%	157.50	10.73	159.72	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	115.7%	12.0%	-24.3%	13.6%	0.91	0.50	58.3%	261 / 24	55.2%	38.21	18.37	279.17	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	100.5%	10.8%	-24.3%	13.1%	0.85	0.45	58.3%	243 / 24	55.2%	38.21	17.46	252.06	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	92.8%	10.2%	-24.8%	13.1%	0.81	0.41	58.3%	240 / 24	55.2%	38.21	17.48	867.59	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	79.4%	9.0%	-25.9%	13.3%	0.72	0.35	54.2%	252 / 24	55.2%	38.25	17.76	231.26	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	128.3%	13.0%	-31.7%	22.3%	0.66	0.41	80.0%	410 / 5	81.8%	215.20	10.39	149.79	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	93.2%	10.2%	-29.4%	19.8%	0.59	0.35	80.0%	404 / 5	81.8%	215.20	9.71	125.11	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	88.2%	9.8%	-29.6%	19.8%	0.57	0.33	80.0%	397 / 5	81.8%	215.20	9.55	425.34	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	83.7%	9.4%	-27.8%	20.1%	0.55	0.34	100.0%	393 / 5	81.8%	215.40	9.72	118.07	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	1036.3%	43.3%	-77.8%	81.9%	0.85	0.56	—	7 / 0	100.0%	—	0.46	13.73	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2020-01-03–2026-10-06	359.9%	25.3%	-33.4%	27.7%	0.96	0.76	—	7 / 0	100.0%	—	0.51	10.70	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	44.7%	21.5%	-15.3%	19.1%	1.13	1.41	33.3%	117 / 3	86.5%	95.00	3.77	42.08	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	39.1%	19.0%	-13.6%	18.0%	1.07	1.40	33.3%	121 / 3	86.5%	95.00	3.91	42.48	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	38.5%	18.7%	-13.5%	18.0%	1.05	1.38	33.3%	118 / 3	86.5%	95.00	3.84	145.80	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	40.5%	19.6%	-13.2%	18.0%	1.09	1.49	33.3%	129 / 3	86.5%	95.33	4.21	46.12	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	38.0%	18.5%	-15.1%	19.3%	0.99	1.22	50.0%	124 / 2	88.0%	146.00	3.42	37.23	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	33.2%	16.3%	-13.4%	18.3%	0.93	1.22	50.0%	117 / 2	88.0%	146.00	3.28	34.81	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	32.3%	15.9%	-13.6%	18.3%	0.91	1.17	50.0%	122 / 2	88.0%	146.00	3.43	127.04	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	32.0%	15.8%	-14.2%	18.3%	0.90	1.11	50.0%	127 / 2	88.0%	146.50	3.44	36.38	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	27.0%	13.4%	-11.0%	15.0%	0.92	1.22	33.3%	87 / 9	59.3%	29.00	6.76	70.29	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	23.6%	11.8%	-10.5%	14.5%	0.85	1.12	33.3%	83 / 9	59.3%	29.00	6.45	65.59	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	21.9%	11.0%	-10.9%	14.5%	0.80	1.01	33.3%	84 / 9	59.3%	29.00	6.42	226.83	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	30.0%	14.8%	-11.4%	14.6%	1.03	1.30	33.3%	98 / 9	59.3%	29.11	6.72	69.34	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	41.8%	20.2%	-23.3%	23.3%	0.91	0.87	50.0%	146 / 2	96.0%	71.00	3.83	41.21	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	33.0%	16.2%	-23.3%	21.9%	0.80	0.70	50.0%	132 / 2	96.0%	71.00	3.43	35.12	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	32.3%	15.9%	-23.3%	21.9%	0.79	0.68	50.0%	141 / 2	96.0%	71.00	3.56	126.97	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	33.5%	16.5%	-23.1%	21.9%	0.81	0.71	50.0%	137 / 2	96.0%	71.50	3.54	36.24	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	181.0%	72.4%	-63.2%	79.7%	1.09	1.15	—	3 / 0	100.0%	—	0.81	10.80	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	72.5%	33.3%	-25.4%	26.8%	1.21	1.31	—	2 / 0	100.0%	—	0.83	10.05	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-11-04	373.5%	12.7%	-20.6%	15.3%	0.86	0.62	41.4%	642 / 29	84.9%	90.45	25.04	576.35	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-11-04	8912.6%	41.5%	-77.8%	68.6%	0.85	0.53	—	6 / 0	100.0%	—	0.27	57.94	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
contrarian200_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-14–2026-11-04	14.3%	1.0%	-25.5%	10.8%	0.15	0.04	79.3%	258 / 29	15.1%	16.97	20.47	230.79	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
contrarian200_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-14–2026-11-04	9.2%	0.7%	-26.6%	10.8%	0.12	0.03	79.3%	253 / 29	15.1%	16.97	20.39	785.38	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2008-12-31–2026-11-04	52507.9%	42.1%	-77.3%	63.8%	0.87	0.54	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.01	9.92	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2008-12-31–2026-11-04	52229.8%	42.0%	-77.3%	63.7%	0.87	0.54	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.01	34.57	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

SMA200 with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 4.3%
2014: 13.9%
2015: -4.8%
2016: 9.7%
2017: 28.9%
2018: -0.6%
2019: 24.0%
2020: 24.4%
2021: 29.7%
2022: -15.5%
2023: 35.2%
2024: 12.0%
2025: 15.5%
2026: 28.2%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 4.3%
2014: 15.0%
2015: -2.6%
2016: 4.7%
2017: 28.8%
2018: 5.2%
2019: 25.6%
2020: 28.0%
2021: 29.3%
2022: -19.0%
2023: 34.1%
2024: 10.8%
2025: 13.1%
2026: 23.7%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 4.3%
2014: 15.0%
2015: -2.6%
2016: 4.7%
2017: 28.8%
2018: 5.2%
2019: 25.6%
2020: 18.7%
2021: 29.3%
2022: -18.6%
2023: 32.9%
2024: 10.3%
2025: 9.4%
2026: 23.0%

Rules with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 4.3%
2014: 1.0%
2015: -10.2%
2016: -1.9%
2017: 19.9%
2018: 0.5%
2019: 18.6%
2020: 18.3%
2021: 27.2%
2022: -5.4%
2023: 24.3%
2024: -6.1%
2025: 4.5%
2026: 24.6%

Rules with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 4.3%
2014: 1.0%
2015: -10.2%
2016: -1.9%
2017: 19.9%
2018: 0.5%
2019: 18.6%
2020: 14.7%
2021: 27.1%
2022: -5.4%
2023: 24.4%
2024: -6.0%
2025: 1.7%
2026: 25.2%

Cash / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: 0.0%
2015: 0.0%
2016: 0.0%
2017: 0.0%
2018: 0.0%
2019: 0.0%
2020: 0.0%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 4.9%
2014: 17.7%
2015: 5.5%
2016: 14.9%
2017: 34.0%
2018: -1.7%
2019: 49.5%
2020: 43.2%
2021: 34.5%
2022: -27.6%
2023: 55.6%
2024: 21.5%
2025: 24.4%
2026: 40.6%

SMA200 with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 20.4%
2021: 29.4%
2022: -15.6%
2023: 35.0%
2024: 11.9%
2025: 15.3%
2026: 27.8%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 15.0%
2021: 29.4%
2022: -15.2%
2023: 34.1%
2024: 11.4%
2025: 11.4%
2026: 27.7%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 27.8%
2021: 29.1%
2022: -19.2%
2023: 34.1%
2024: 10.6%
2025: 12.8%
2026: 23.7%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 18.6%
2021: 29.2%
2022: -18.6%
2023: 33.2%
2024: 9.5%
2025: 9.3%
2026: 23.2%

Rules with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 17.6%
2021: 27.1%
2022: -5.5%
2023: 24.4%
2024: -5.9%
2025: 5.0%
2026: 24.1%

Rules with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 12.6%
2021: 26.7%
2022: -5.5%
2023: 24.4%
2024: -6.3%
2025: 2.2%
2026: 24.9%

Logistic regression with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 30.6%
2021: 29.5%
2022: -25.7%
2023: 9.5%
2024: 15.1%
2025: 8.9%
2026: 32.5%

Logistic regression with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 15.5%
2021: 29.9%
2022: -23.2%
2023: 9.6%
2024: 13.8%
2025: 2.0%
2026: 31.9%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 67.7%
2021: 112.1%
2022: -74.1%
2023: 201.5%
2024: 36.0%
2025: 39.3%
2026: 116.3%

Cash / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 0.0%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2020: 42.5%
2021: 34.4%
2022: -27.6%
2023: 55.6%
2024: 21.6%
2025: 24.8%
2026: 40.5%

SMA200 with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.5%
2025: 15.1%
2026: 27.6%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.5%
2025: 11.2%
2026: 27.0%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.5%
2025: 13.4%
2026: 23.5%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.5%
2025: 9.1%
2026: 23.9%

Rules with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -2.8%
2025: 4.8%
2026: 24.6%

Rules with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -2.8%
2025: 1.8%
2026: 24.9%

Logistic regression with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.5%
2025: 9.0%
2026: 32.0%

Logistic regression with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.5%
2025: 2.1%
2026: 32.2%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -6.4%
2025: 38.9%
2026: 116.1%

Cash / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.3%
2025: 24.2%
2026: 40.6%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 4.3%
2014: 13.9%
2015: -4.8%
2016: 9.7%
2017: 28.9%
2018: -0.6%
2019: 23.9%
2020: 15.9%
2021: 29.4%
2022: -15.3%
2023: 34.0%
2024: 12.0%
2025: 11.7%
2026: 13.0%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 14.6%
2014: 52.3%
2015: 4.7%
2016: 37.0%
2017: 124.6%
2018: -23.8%
2019: 183.8%
2020: 69.6%
2021: 112.2%
2022: -74.2%
2023: 202.2%
2024: 36.0%
2025: 39.3%
2026: 39.5%

/ Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: 0.6%
2015: 9.3%
2016: 2.0%
2017: 0.0%
2018: -2.7%
2019: 11.4%
2020: 0.9%
2021: 0.0%
2022: -13.2%
2023: 5.4%
2024: 2.5%
2025: -3.4%
2026: 2.9%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2008: 3.8%
2009: 230.2%
2010: 17.2%
2011: -15.4%
2012: 27.3%
2013: 74.4%
2014: 48.0%
2015: 4.4%
2016: 35.0%
2017: 119.8%
2018: -23.4%
2019: 179.6%
2020: 68.1%
2021: 111.3%
2022: -73.6%
2023: 195.1%
2024: 35.6%
2025: 38.5%
2026: 36.7%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations
2013-11-13–2019-06-13 Final label exit 2019-06-21	2019-06-24–2019-12-19 Final label exit 2019-12-30	2019-12-31–2020-06-30	1404 / 126
2013-11-13–2019-12-11 Final label exit 2019-12-19	2019-12-20–2020-06-22 Final label exit 2020-06-30	2020-07-01–2020-12-29	1530 / 126
2013-11-13–2020-06-12 Final label exit 2020-06-22	2020-06-23–2020-12-18 Final label exit 2020-12-29	2020-12-30–2021-06-30	1656 / 126
2013-11-13–2020-12-10 Final label exit 2020-12-18	2020-12-21–2021-06-22 Final label exit 2021-06-30	2021-07-01–2021-12-29	1782 / 126
2013-11-13–2021-06-14 Final label exit 2021-06-22	2021-06-23–2021-12-20 Final label exit 2021-12-29	2021-12-30–2022-06-30	1908 / 126
2013-11-13–2021-12-10 Final label exit 2021-12-20	2021-12-21–2022-06-22 Final label exit 2022-06-30	2022-07-01–2022-12-29	2034 / 126
2013-11-13–2022-06-13 Final label exit 2022-06-22	2022-06-23–2022-12-20 Final label exit 2022-12-29	2022-12-30–2023-07-03	2160 / 126
2013-11-13–2022-12-12 Final label exit 2022-12-20	2022-12-21–2023-06-23 Final label exit 2023-07-03	2023-07-05–2024-01-02	2286 / 126
2013-11-13–2023-06-14 Final label exit 2023-06-23	2023-06-26–2023-12-21 Final label exit 2024-01-02	2024-01-03–2024-07-03	2412 / 126
2013-11-13–2023-12-13 Final label exit 2023-12-21	2023-12-22–2024-06-25 Final label exit 2024-07-03	2024-07-05–2025-01-02	2538 / 126
2013-11-13–2024-06-14 Final label exit 2024-06-25	2024-06-26–2024-12-23 Final label exit 2025-01-02	2025-01-03–2025-07-08	2664 / 126
2013-11-13–2024-12-13 Final label exit 2024-12-23	2024-12-24–2025-06-27 Final label exit 2025-07-08	2025-07-09–2026-01-06	2790 / 126
2013-11-13–2025-06-18 Final label exit 2025-06-27	2025-06-30–2025-12-26 Final label exit 2026-01-06	2026-01-07–2026-07-09	2916 / 126
2013-11-13–2025-12-17 Final label exit 2025-12-26	2025-12-29–2026-06-30 Final label exit 2026-07-09	2026-07-10–2026-10-06	3042 / 126

MUU · Direxion Daily MU Bull 2X ETF

Actual ETF history 2024-10-10–2026-10-06 (valid: 498; missing/inconsistent: 0 observations). Insufficient evaluation history; continuous evaluation: 2024-11-12–2026-10-06.

Launched in 2024. The underlying stock’s longer history is not substituted for actual ETF performance.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	27.3%	13.5%	-2.9%	5.3%	2.45	4.66	33.3%	35 / 3	66.5%	85.67	0.77	8.48	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	26.9%	13.4%	-2.9%	5.3%	2.44	4.59	33.3%	33 / 3	66.5%	85.67	0.75	28.79	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	26.9%	13.4%	-3.4%	5.3%	2.41	3.93	66.7%	30 / 3	66.2%	85.33	0.72	7.87	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	27.2%	13.5%	-3.4%	5.3%	2.46	3.98	100.0%	29 / 1	66.5%	257.00	0.55	6.09	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	27.2%	13.5%	-3.4%	5.3%	2.46	3.98	100.0%	29 / 1	66.5%	257.00	0.55	6.09	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	26.9%	13.4%	-3.4%	5.2%	2.45	3.94	100.0%	27 / 1	66.5%	257.00	0.53	20.46	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.3%	0.7%	-1.1%	1.1%	0.65	0.61	50.0%	12 / 6	6.1%	4.83	0.57	5.77	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.3%	0.7%	-1.1%	1.1%	0.65	0.61	50.0%	12 / 6	6.1%	4.83	0.57	5.77	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.2%	0.6%	-1.2%	1.1%	0.58	0.52	50.0%	12 / 6	6.1%	4.83	0.57	20.18	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.4%	0.8%	-1.2%	1.1%	0.72	0.61	83.3%	13 / 6	6.1%	4.83	0.60	6.03	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	915.3%	239.3%	-40.6%	72.5%	2.06	5.89	—	2 / 0	100.0%	—	0.28	9.97	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	27.3%	13.5%	-2.9%	5.3%	2.45	4.66	33.3%	35 / 3	66.5%	85.67	0.77	8.48	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	27.3%	13.5%	-2.9%	5.3%	2.45	4.66	33.3%	35 / 3	66.5%	85.67	0.77	8.48	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	26.9%	13.4%	-2.9%	5.3%	2.44	4.59	33.3%	33 / 3	66.5%	85.67	0.75	28.79	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	26.9%	13.4%	-3.4%	5.3%	2.41	3.93	66.7%	30 / 3	66.2%	85.33	0.72	7.87	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	27.2%	13.5%	-3.4%	5.3%	2.46	3.98	100.0%	29 / 1	66.5%	257.00	0.55	6.09	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	27.2%	13.5%	-3.4%	5.3%	2.46	3.98	100.0%	29 / 1	66.5%	257.00	0.55	6.09	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	26.9%	13.4%	-3.4%	5.2%	2.45	3.94	100.0%	27 / 1	66.5%	257.00	0.53	20.46	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.3%	0.7%	-1.1%	1.1%	0.65	0.61	50.0%	12 / 6	6.1%	4.83	0.57	5.77	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.3%	0.7%	-1.1%	1.1%	0.65	0.61	50.0%	12 / 6	6.1%	4.83	0.57	5.77	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.2%	0.6%	-1.2%	1.1%	0.58	0.52	50.0%	12 / 6	6.1%	4.83	0.57	20.18	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.4%	0.8%	-1.2%	1.1%	0.72	0.61	83.3%	13 / 6	6.1%	4.83	0.60	6.03	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	2916.1%	502.2%	-71.5%	144.1%	1.98	7.02	—	8 / 0	100.0%	—	0.13	11.74	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	915.3%	239.3%	-40.6%	72.5%	2.06	5.89	—	2 / 0	100.0%	—	0.28	9.97	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-11-04	24.0%	11.5%	-3.1%	5.4%	2.07	3.68	33.3%	37 / 3	67.9%	85.67	0.79	8.73	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-11-04	1559.3%	314.1%	-71.5%	143.9%	1.71	4.39	—	9 / 0	100.0%	—	0.14	12.86	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
current200_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-10-11–2026-11-04	24.0%	10.9%	-3.1%	5.2%	2.02	3.52	33.3%	37 / 3	64.9%	85.67	0.79	8.73	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
current200_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-10-11–2026-11-04	23.6%	10.8%	-3.1%	5.2%	2.00	3.45	33.3%	35 / 3	64.9%	85.67	0.77	29.68	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-10-11–2026-11-04	1364.7%	266.4%	-74.4%	140.5%	1.63	3.58	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.12	9.94	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-10-11–2026-11-04	1360.8%	265.9%	-74.4%	140.4%	1.63	3.58	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.12	34.71	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

SMA200 with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 11.1%
2026: 14.5%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 11.6%
2026: 13.9%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 11.6%
2026: 13.9%

Rules with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 1.3%
2026: 0.0%

Rules with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 1.3%
2026: 0.0%

Cash / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -18.0%
2025: 238.7%
2026: 265.7%

SMA200 with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 11.1%
2026: 14.5%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 11.1%
2026: 14.5%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 11.6%
2026: 13.9%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 11.6%
2026: 13.9%

Rules with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 1.3%
2026: 0.0%

Rules with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 1.3%
2026: 0.0%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -37.7%
2025: 594.2%
2026: 597.2%

Cash / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -18.0%
2025: 238.7%
2026: 265.7%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 11.1%
2026: 11.6%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -37.7%
2025: 594.2%
2026: 283.5%

/ Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 11.1%
2026: 11.6%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -42.7%
2025: 579.0%
2026: 276.2%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations

NVDL · GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF

Actual ETF history 2022-12-13–2026-10-06 (valid: 956; missing/inconsistent: 0 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2023-02-13–2026-10-06.

Leverage changed from 1.5x to 2x on 2024-01-22. Actual price-based returns are retained; leverage-weighted exposure uses the multiple applicable to each period.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	21.2%	5.4%	-3.9%	4.0%	1.35	1.39	60.0%	50 / 5	92.5%	159.60	1.00	11.39	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	20.9%	5.3%	-4.0%	4.0%	1.33	1.35	60.0%	50 / 5	92.5%	159.60	1.00	39.87	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	21.9%	5.6%	-3.0%	4.0%	1.39	1.88	60.0%	52 / 5	92.5%	159.80	1.06	12.10	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	20.8%	5.3%	-3.9%	4.0%	1.33	1.38	50.0%	45 / 4	92.3%	180.25	0.86	9.82	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	20.8%	5.3%	-3.9%	4.0%	1.33	1.38	50.0%	45 / 4	92.3%	180.25	0.86	9.82	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	20.5%	5.3%	-3.9%	4.0%	1.31	1.34	50.0%	45 / 4	92.3%	180.25	0.86	34.38	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	22.0%	5.6%	-2.7%	4.0%	1.39	2.09	50.0%	50 / 4	92.3%	180.50	0.96	11.02	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	9.2%	2.5%	-2.3%	2.4%	1.02	1.08	40.0%	51 / 20	42.8%	19.25	2.08	22.17	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	9.2%	2.5%	-2.3%	2.4%	1.02	1.08	40.0%	51 / 20	42.8%	19.25	2.08	22.17	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	8.7%	2.3%	-2.3%	2.4%	0.96	1.01	40.0%	51 / 20	42.8%	19.25	2.08	77.59	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	13.2%	3.5%	-2.2%	2.4%	1.43	1.57	75.0%	48 / 20	42.7%	19.25	2.08	22.60	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-10-06	1003.8%	93.3%	-36.8%	47.6%	1.63	2.53	—	2 / 0	100.0%	—	0.17	9.94	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	1.9%	2.5%	-2.2%	3.5%	0.73	1.11	50.0%	11 / 2	93.4%	69.00	0.33	3.28	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	1.9%	2.5%	-2.2%	3.5%	0.73	1.11	50.0%	11 / 2	93.4%	69.00	0.33	3.28	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	1.8%	2.2%	-2.2%	3.4%	0.67	1.01	50.0%	11 / 2	93.4%	69.00	0.32	11.40	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	1.9%	2.4%	-2.2%	3.4%	0.72	1.09	50.0%	12 / 2	93.4%	69.50	0.34	3.44	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	1.7%	2.2%	-2.2%	3.5%	0.64	0.97	0.0%	8 / 1	92.9%	61.00	0.21	2.07	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	1.7%	2.2%	-2.2%	3.5%	0.64	0.97	0.0%	8 / 1	92.9%	61.00	0.21	2.07	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	1.7%	2.1%	-2.2%	3.5%	0.62	0.94	0.0%	8 / 1	92.9%	61.00	0.21	7.26	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	1.2%	1.5%	-2.2%	3.5%	0.44	0.65	0.0%	6 / 1	92.9%	62.00	0.19	1.86	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	-0.0%	-0.1%	-2.1%	2.5%	-0.01	-0.03	25.0%	20 / 8	51.0%	11.88	0.84	8.37	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	-0.0%	-0.1%	-2.1%	2.5%	-0.01	-0.03	25.0%	20 / 8	51.0%	11.88	0.84	8.37	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	-0.3%	-0.3%	-2.2%	2.5%	-0.12	-0.15	25.0%	20 / 8	51.0%	11.88	0.84	29.29	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	0.7%	0.9%	-2.3%	2.6%	0.35	0.38	50.0%	20 / 8	50.5%	11.88	0.83	8.29	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	1.8%	2.3%	-2.2%	2.9%	0.81	1.06	100.0%	10 / 1	64.1%	127.00	0.20	1.98	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	1.8%	2.3%	-2.2%	2.9%	0.81	1.06	100.0%	10 / 1	64.1%	127.00	0.20	1.98	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	1.8%	2.3%	-2.2%	2.9%	0.79	1.03	100.0%	10 / 1	64.1%	127.00	0.20	6.94	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	1.9%	2.4%	-2.2%	2.9%	0.82	1.07	100.0%	10 / 1	64.1%	127.00	0.20	1.99	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	40.0%	53.0%	-38.4%	74.2%	0.94	1.38	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.91	9.97	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-12-22–2026-10-06	30.0%	39.4%	-19.2%	37.2%	1.08	2.05	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.91	9.93	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.7%	0.9%	-3.8%	3.5%	0.28	0.24	40.0%	27 / 5	85.4%	71.60	0.69	6.87	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.7%	0.9%	-3.8%	3.5%	0.28	0.24	40.0%	27 / 5	85.4%	71.60	0.69	6.87	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.6%	0.8%	-3.8%	3.5%	0.25	0.21	40.0%	27 / 5	85.4%	71.60	0.69	24.04	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	2.6%	1.4%	-3.0%	3.6%	0.41	0.47	40.0%	28 / 5	85.4%	71.80	0.74	7.35	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.3%	0.7%	-3.8%	3.5%	0.21	0.18	25.0%	20 / 4	85.2%	70.25	0.52	5.14	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.3%	0.7%	-3.8%	3.5%	0.21	0.18	25.0%	20 / 4	85.2%	70.25	0.52	5.14	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.2%	0.6%	-3.9%	3.5%	0.20	0.16	25.0%	20 / 4	85.2%	70.25	0.52	18.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	2.3%	1.2%	-2.7%	3.6%	0.36	0.46	25.0%	24 / 4	85.2%	70.50	0.61	6.07	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	0.4%	0.2%	-2.3%	2.4%	0.10	0.10	30.8%	34 / 13	47.9%	17.00	1.33	13.27	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	0.4%	0.2%	-2.3%	2.4%	0.10	0.10	30.8%	34 / 13	47.9%	17.00	1.33	13.27	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	0.1%	0.0%	-2.3%	2.4%	0.03	0.02	30.8%	34 / 13	47.9%	17.00	1.33	46.46	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	2.4%	1.3%	-2.2%	2.3%	0.56	0.57	53.8%	33 / 13	47.9%	17.08	1.29	13.10	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	42.3%	20.4%	-67.2%	87.5%	0.66	0.30	—	2 / 0	100.0%	—	1.06	9.98	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	60.7%	28.4%	-36.9%	44.3%	0.79	0.77	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.86	9.99	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-11-04	19.2%	4.8%	-3.9%	4.0%	1.21	1.24	66.7%	52 / 6	92.5%	144.00	1.09	12.47	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-02-14–2026-11-04	1528.0%	111.5%	-67.5%	88.9%	1.29	1.65	—	3 / 0	100.0%	—	0.12	12.94	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
trend200_momentum20_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-12-16–2026-11-04	10.4%	2.6%	-4.2%	3.3%	0.79	0.61	36.7%	117 / 49	63.6%	12.63	4.80	51.95	Advantage unconfirmed
trend200_momentum20_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-12-16–2026-11-04	9.1%	2.3%	-4.6%	3.3%	0.71	0.49	34.7%	117 / 49	63.6%	12.63	4.79	180.20	Advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-12-14–2026-11-04	1834.4%	114.0%	-66.2%	86.5%	1.31	1.72	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.08	9.96	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-12-14–2026-11-04	1829.4%	113.9%	-66.2%	86.5%	1.31	1.72	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.08	34.78	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

SMA200 with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2023: 6.4%
2024: 10.8%
2025: 0.9%
2026: 1.8%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2023: 6.4%
2024: 10.8%
2025: 0.9%
2026: 1.5%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2023: 6.4%
2024: 10.8%
2025: 0.9%
2026: 1.5%

Rules with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2023: 2.3%
2024: 5.4%
2025: 1.6%
2026: -0.3%

Rules with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2023: 2.3%
2024: 5.4%
2025: 1.6%
2026: -0.3%

Cash / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2023: 128.4%
2024: 170.8%
2025: 38.9%
2026: 28.5%

SMA200 with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 0.1%
2026: 1.8%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 0.1%
2026: 1.8%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 0.1%
2026: 1.6%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 0.1%
2026: 1.6%

Rules with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 0.1%
2026: -0.2%

Rules with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 0.1%
2026: -0.2%

Logistic regression with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 0.0%
2026: 1.8%

Logistic regression with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 0.0%
2026: 1.8%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 2.3%
2026: 36.9%

Cash / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 1.3%
2026: 28.4%

SMA200 with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.0%
2025: 1.0%
2026: 1.7%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.0%
2025: 1.0%
2026: 1.7%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.0%
2025: 0.9%
2026: 1.4%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -1.0%
2025: 0.9%
2026: 1.4%

Rules with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -0.9%
2025: 1.5%
2026: -0.2%

Rules with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -0.9%
2025: 1.5%
2026: -0.2%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -21.5%
2025: 32.5%
2026: 36.9%

Cash / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -10.0%
2025: 38.9%
2026: 28.5%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2023: 6.4%
2024: 10.8%
2025: 0.9%
2026: 0.2%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2023: 202.2%
2024: 331.3%
2025: 32.5%
2026: -5.8%

/ Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 0.0%
2023: 3.1%
2024: 8.2%
2025: -0.9%
2026: -0.1%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: -28.2%
2023: 429.7%
2024: 309.4%
2025: 31.8%
2026: -5.7%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations
2022-12-13–2025-06-02 Final label exit 2025-06-10	2025-06-11–2025-12-09 Final label exit 2025-12-17	2025-12-18–2026-06-22	618 / 126
2022-12-13–2025-12-01 Final label exit 2025-12-09	2025-12-10–2026-06-11 Final label exit 2026-06-22	2026-06-23–2026-10-06	744 / 126

TSLL · Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X ETF

Actual ETF history 2022-08-09–2026-10-06 (valid: 1044; missing/inconsistent: 0 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2022-09-23–2026-10-06.

Leverage changed from 1.5x to 2x around 2024-04-02. The official notice says “on or around”; leverage-weighted values near the transition are shown as unconfirmed.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	-1.3%	-0.3%	-8.4%	3.7%	-0.07	-0.04	20.0%	78 / 25	51.6%	20.88	2.72	27.43	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	-2.4%	-0.6%	-9.1%	3.8%	-0.14	-0.07	16.0%	76 / 25	51.6%	20.88	2.68	94.23	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	-0.1%	-0.0%	-7.8%	3.7%	0.01	-0.00	36.0%	78 / 25	51.6%	20.88	2.78	28.08	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	0.3%	0.1%	-8.1%	3.6%	0.04	0.01	30.0%	47 / 10	50.3%	50.90	1.26	12.76	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	0.3%	0.1%	-8.1%	3.6%	0.04	0.01	30.0%	47 / 10	50.3%	50.90	1.26	12.76	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	-0.4%	-0.1%	-8.2%	3.6%	-0.01	-0.01	30.0%	45 / 10	50.3%	50.90	1.23	43.41	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	0.6%	0.1%	-2.0%	1.2%	0.13	0.07	25.0%	16 / 8	6.3%	8.00	0.79	7.89	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	0.6%	0.1%	-2.0%	1.2%	0.13	0.07	25.0%	16 / 8	6.3%	8.00	0.79	7.89	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	0.4%	0.1%	-2.1%	1.2%	0.09	0.05	25.0%	16 / 8	6.3%	8.00	0.79	27.63	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	0.2%	0.0%	-2.2%	1.1%	0.04	0.02	37.5%	17 / 8	6.3%	8.00	0.80	8.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-10-06	41.0%	8.9%	-62.0%	58.6%	0.44	0.14	—	2 / 0	100.0%	—	0.94	9.98	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	-0.4%	-0.4%	-4.6%	3.4%	-0.10	-0.09	11.1%	25 / 9	58.0%	18.44	0.95	9.63	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	-0.4%	-0.4%	-4.6%	3.4%	-0.10	-0.09	11.1%	25 / 9	58.0%	18.44	0.95	9.63	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	-0.7%	-0.6%	-4.8%	3.4%	-0.16	-0.13	11.1%	25 / 9	58.0%	18.44	0.95	33.70	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	-0.2%	-0.2%	-4.1%	3.4%	-0.04	-0.04	11.1%	25 / 9	58.4%	18.56	0.95	9.58	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	0.8%	0.7%	-3.4%	3.2%	0.24	0.21	33.3%	13 / 3	58.0%	55.33	0.36	3.69	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	0.8%	0.7%	-3.4%	3.2%	0.24	0.21	33.3%	13 / 3	58.0%	55.33	0.36	3.69	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	0.7%	0.6%	-3.4%	3.2%	0.21	0.18	33.3%	13 / 3	58.0%	55.33	0.36	12.92	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	0.9%	0.8%	-3.9%	3.2%	0.26	0.20	66.7%	15 / 3	58.4%	55.67	0.41	4.17	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	1.3%	1.2%	-1.7%	2.1%	0.57	0.71	33.3%	12 / 6	17.8%	8.50	0.59	6.01	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	1.3%	1.2%	-1.7%	2.1%	0.57	0.71	33.3%	12 / 6	17.8%	8.50	0.59	6.01	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	1.2%	1.0%	-1.7%	2.1%	0.51	0.62	33.3%	12 / 6	17.8%	8.50	0.59	21.05	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	0.7%	0.7%	-2.3%	2.1%	0.32	0.29	50.0%	13 / 6	17.8%	8.50	0.61	6.14	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	-0.7%	-0.6%	-2.6%	1.7%	-0.37	-0.24	0.0%	3 / 1	9.8%	28.00	0.13	1.29	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	-0.7%	-0.6%	-2.6%	1.7%	-0.37	-0.24	0.0%	3 / 1	9.8%	28.00	0.13	1.29	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	-0.7%	-0.7%	-2.6%	1.7%	-0.39	-0.25	0.0%	3 / 1	9.8%	28.00	0.13	4.53	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	-0.9%	-0.8%	-2.4%	1.7%	-0.44	-0.31	0.0%	4 / 1	9.8%	28.00	0.12	1.24	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	-8.6%	-7.6%	-69.6%	91.0%	0.37	-0.11	—	7 / 0	100.0%	—	0.86	10.81	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-18–2026-10-06	15.2%	13.3%	-38.8%	45.6%	0.50	0.34	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.82	9.89	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-5.1%	-2.7%	-8.7%	4.0%	-0.69	-0.32	16.7%	50 / 18	61.4%	16.17	1.86	18.19	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-5.1%	-2.7%	-8.7%	4.0%	-0.69	-0.32	16.7%	50 / 18	61.4%	16.17	1.86	18.19	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-5.6%	-3.0%	-9.1%	4.0%	-0.75	-0.33	11.1%	50 / 18	61.4%	16.17	1.86	63.58	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-3.8%	-2.0%	-7.7%	3.9%	-0.51	-0.26	27.8%	51 / 18	61.6%	16.22	1.92	18.89	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-3.4%	-1.8%	-8.1%	3.8%	-0.47	-0.23	14.3%	27 / 7	58.9%	39.86	0.80	7.85	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-3.4%	-1.8%	-8.1%	3.8%	-0.47	-0.23	14.3%	27 / 7	58.9%	39.86	0.80	7.85	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-3.5%	-1.8%	-8.2%	3.8%	-0.48	-0.23	14.3%	29 / 7	58.9%	39.86	0.82	28.34	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-4.0%	-2.1%	-8.3%	3.8%	-0.55	-0.26	14.3%	30 / 7	59.1%	40.00	0.88	8.56	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.3%	0.7%	-1.7%	1.6%	0.44	0.42	33.3%	12 / 6	10.8%	8.50	0.60	6.01	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.3%	0.7%	-1.7%	1.6%	0.44	0.42	33.3%	12 / 6	10.8%	8.50	0.60	6.01	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	1.2%	0.6%	-1.7%	1.6%	0.40	0.37	33.3%	12 / 6	10.8%	8.50	0.60	21.05	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	0.7%	0.4%	-2.3%	1.6%	0.25	0.17	50.0%	13 / 6	10.8%	8.50	0.61	6.14	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-44.4%	-26.6%	-82.6%	112.2%	0.29	-0.32	—	11 / 0	100.0%	—	1.38	10.78	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	14.5%	7.4%	-52.8%	56.3%	0.41	0.14	—	2 / 0	100.0%	—	0.89	9.97	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-11-04	-1.6%	-0.4%	-8.6%	3.7%	-0.09	-0.05	20.0%	79 / 25	51.3%	20.88	2.77	27.93	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-26–2026-11-04	-43.5%	-13.0%	-82.6%	106.6%	0.40	-0.16	—	22 / 0	100.0%	—	1.69	11.24	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
trend100_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-10-04–2026-11-04	0.6%	0.2%	-6.6%	3.7%	0.06	0.02	21.4%	84 / 28	54.4%	19.54	3.03	30.81	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
trend100_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-10-04–2026-11-04	-0.2%	-0.0%	-6.9%	3.7%	0.01	-0.01	21.4%	86 / 28	54.4%	19.54	3.05	107.85	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-10–2026-11-04	-49.7%	-15.0%	-81.0%	96.7%	0.31	-0.18	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	1.73	9.99	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-10–2026-11-04	-49.8%	-15.0%	-81.0%	96.7%	0.31	-0.19	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	1.73	34.88	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

SMA200 with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.3%
2024: 5.5%
2025: -3.1%
2026: -3.7%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.8%
2024: 5.0%
2025: -2.9%
2026: -2.4%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.8%
2024: 5.0%
2025: -2.9%
2026: -2.4%

Rules with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 0.0%
2023: -0.2%
2024: -0.6%
2025: 1.8%
2026: -0.5%

Rules with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 0.0%
2023: -0.2%
2024: -0.6%
2025: 1.8%
2026: -0.5%

Cash / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: -54.3%
2023: 101.5%
2024: 62.5%
2025: 11.4%
2026: -15.3%

SMA200 with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 3.4%
2026: -3.7%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 3.4%
2026: -3.7%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 3.3%
2026: -2.4%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 3.3%
2026: -2.4%

Rules with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 1.8%
2026: -0.5%

Rules with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 1.8%
2026: -0.5%

Logistic regression with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 0.0%
2026: -0.7%

Logistic regression with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 0.0%
2026: -0.7%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 63.9%
2026: -44.2%

Cash / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 35.9%
2026: -15.2%

SMA200 with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 2.0%
2025: -3.5%
2026: -3.7%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 2.0%
2025: -3.5%
2026: -3.7%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 2.0%
2025: -3.0%
2026: -2.4%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 2.0%
2025: -3.0%
2026: -2.4%

Rules with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 1.8%
2026: -0.5%

Rules with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 1.8%
2026: -0.5%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 35.5%
2025: -26.6%
2026: -44.2%

Cash / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 19.6%
2025: 13.0%
2026: -15.3%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.3%
2024: 5.5%
2025: -3.1%
2026: -4.0%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: -71.5%
2023: 139.9%
2024: 100.8%
2025: -26.5%
2026: -43.9%

/ Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 0.0%
2023: -0.9%
2024: 6.6%
2025: -0.5%
2026: -4.2%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: -75.5%
2023: 137.5%
2024: 91.7%
2025: -25.8%
2026: -39.4%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations
2022-08-09–2025-01-24 Final label exit 2025-02-03	2025-02-04–2025-08-05 Final label exit 2025-08-13	2025-08-14–2026-02-12	618 / 126
2022-08-09–2025-07-28 Final label exit 2025-08-05	2025-08-06–2026-02-04 Final label exit 2026-02-12	2026-02-13–2026-08-14	744 / 126
2022-08-09–2026-01-27 Final label exit 2026-02-04	2026-02-05–2026-08-06 Final label exit 2026-08-14	2026-08-17–2026-10-06	870 / 126

FAS · Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X ETF

Actual ETF history 2022-08-02–2026-10-06 (valid: 1049; missing/inconsistent: 0 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2022-08-03–2026-10-06.

Before the August 2022 index change, the benchmark was Russell 1000 Financial Services. Same-index comparisons with XLF start on 2022-08-02.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	9.0%	2.1%	-18.5%	11.5%	0.24	0.11	23.1%	134 / 13	71.7%	57.69	8.90	94.11	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	5.3%	1.3%	-18.5%	11.5%	0.17	0.07	23.1%	130 / 13	71.7%	57.69	8.81	320.81	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	13.3%	3.0%	-17.1%	11.6%	0.32	0.18	30.8%	145 / 13	71.6%	57.69	8.92	93.44	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	4.6%	1.1%	-16.7%	11.5%	0.15	0.06	40.0%	129 / 5	71.4%	134.20	4.76	48.09	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	3.4%	0.8%	-16.7%	11.4%	0.13	0.05	40.0%	125 / 5	71.4%	134.20	4.66	46.93	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	2.5%	0.6%	-16.9%	11.4%	0.11	0.03	40.0%	123 / 5	71.4%	134.20	4.69	164.47	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	11.0%	2.5%	-15.0%	11.7%	0.27	0.17	40.0%	126 / 5	71.3%	134.20	4.89	51.03	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	12.4%	2.8%	-9.2%	7.7%	0.40	0.31	58.3%	62 / 12	40.2%	35.08	7.75	83.34	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	12.4%	2.8%	-9.2%	7.7%	0.40	0.31	58.3%	63 / 12	40.2%	35.08	7.75	83.31	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	10.3%	2.4%	-10.1%	7.7%	0.35	0.24	50.0%	66 / 12	40.2%	35.08	7.78	290.38	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	12.7%	2.9%	-8.5%	7.6%	0.42	0.34	66.7%	69 / 12	40.2%	35.08	7.88	84.99	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-10-06	72.2%	13.9%	-16.2%	17.0%	0.85	0.86	—	11 / 0	100.0%	—	0.80	10.83	Advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-1.9%	-1.6%	-8.0%	10.1%	-0.11	-0.20	33.3%	30 / 3	70.4%	68.00	2.37	23.91	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-1.9%	-1.6%	-8.0%	10.1%	-0.11	-0.20	33.3%	30 / 3	70.4%	68.00	2.37	23.91	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-2.6%	-2.3%	-8.1%	10.1%	-0.18	-0.28	33.3%	27 / 3	70.4%	68.00	2.31	81.39	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-2.6%	-2.3%	-8.4%	10.1%	-0.18	-0.27	0.0%	27 / 3	70.4%	68.33	2.08	20.95	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-2.4%	-2.1%	-9.3%	10.1%	-0.16	-0.22	0.0%	21 / 1	71.1%	130.00	1.15	11.62	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-2.4%	-2.1%	-9.3%	10.1%	-0.16	-0.22	0.0%	21 / 1	71.1%	130.00	1.15	11.62	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-2.6%	-2.2%	-9.4%	10.1%	-0.17	-0.24	0.0%	23 / 1	71.1%	130.00	1.19	41.90	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-1.9%	-1.6%	-8.8%	10.2%	-0.11	-0.18	0.0%	25 / 1	71.1%	131.00	1.22	12.37	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-0.8%	-0.7%	-4.8%	6.9%	-0.07	-0.14	50.0%	17 / 4	39.2%	28.50	2.50	24.72	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-0.8%	-0.7%	-4.8%	6.9%	-0.07	-0.14	50.0%	17 / 4	39.2%	28.50	2.50	24.72	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-1.4%	-1.2%	-5.0%	6.9%	-0.14	-0.24	50.0%	19 / 4	39.2%	28.50	2.55	87.77	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-1.6%	-1.4%	-5.4%	6.9%	-0.16	-0.25	75.0%	21 / 4	39.2%	28.50	2.57	25.45	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-0.2%	-0.2%	-9.8%	9.7%	0.03	-0.02	—	25 / 0	56.7%	—	0.71	7.07	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-0.2%	-0.2%	-9.8%	9.7%	0.03	-0.02	—	25 / 0	56.7%	—	0.71	7.07	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-0.5%	-0.4%	-9.9%	9.7%	0.01	-0.04	—	24 / 0	56.7%	—	0.68	23.59	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-0.2%	-0.1%	-9.7%	9.7%	0.03	-0.01	—	25 / 0	56.4%	—	0.71	7.07	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	-2.3%	-2.0%	-40.3%	41.9%	0.16	-0.05	—	2 / 0	100.0%	—	1.05	10.72	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2025-08-11–2026-10-06	5.8%	5.0%	-14.7%	14.2%	0.42	0.34	—	3 / 0	100.0%	—	0.97	10.08	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-11.3%	-6.1%	-18.3%	12.8%	-0.43	-0.33	33.3%	49 / 6	79.7%	62.83	4.16	38.61	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-11.7%	-6.4%	-18.2%	12.7%	-0.46	-0.35	33.3%	54 / 6	79.7%	62.83	4.15	38.35	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-12.3%	-6.7%	-18.4%	12.7%	-0.49	-0.36	33.3%	58 / 6	79.7%	62.83	4.25	136.80	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-1.2%	-0.6%	-13.6%	12.8%	0.01	-0.05	33.3%	64 / 6	79.7%	63.00	4.26	43.03	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-9.2%	-5.0%	-15.8%	12.7%	-0.34	-0.32	50.0%	43 / 2	78.9%	148.50	1.98	18.74	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-9.7%	-5.2%	-15.8%	12.6%	-0.37	-0.33	50.0%	46 / 2	78.9%	148.50	2.04	19.15	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-10.1%	-5.5%	-15.8%	12.6%	-0.39	-0.35	50.0%	46 / 2	78.9%	148.50	2.04	66.98	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-4.2%	-2.2%	-13.6%	12.7%	-0.11	-0.16	50.0%	46 / 2	78.9%	149.00	2.16	21.28	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-4.0%	-2.1%	-9.1%	7.7%	-0.24	-0.23	50.0%	33 / 8	45.8%	27.13	4.92	47.65	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-4.1%	-2.2%	-9.2%	7.6%	-0.25	-0.23	50.0%	32 / 8	45.8%	27.13	4.89	47.33	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-5.4%	-2.9%	-10.0%	7.6%	-0.35	-0.29	37.5%	30 / 8	45.8%	27.13	4.90	164.41	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-4.1%	-2.2%	-8.4%	7.4%	-0.26	-0.26	62.5%	34 / 8	46.0%	27.25	4.96	48.28	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	INCOMPLETE_MODEL_HISTORY: logistic needs separate purged training
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	-4.3%	-2.3%	-42.6%	50.7%	0.21	-0.05	—	4 / 0	100.0%	—	1.11	10.83	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-11-13–2026-10-06	11.5%	5.9%	-15.4%	17.1%	0.42	0.38	—	5 / 0	100.0%	—	0.96	10.23	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-11-04	17.2%	3.8%	-18.4%	11.6%	0.38	0.21	23.1%	136 / 13	72.3%	57.69	8.82	93.21	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-04–2026-11-04	183.9%	27.8%	-45.0%	50.9%	0.74	0.62	—	12 / 0	100.0%	—	0.75	12.56	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
trend200_momentum20_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-03–2026-11-04	20.8%	4.5%	-9.0%	8.7%	0.56	0.50	39.4%	135 / 33	49.9%	15.82	20.59	218.26	Advantage unconfirmed
trend200_momentum20_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-03–2026-11-04	14.9%	3.3%	-10.2%	8.7%	0.42	0.32	36.4%	136 / 33	49.9%	15.82	20.56	744.49	Advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-03–2026-11-04	179.0%	27.3%	-44.6%	49.6%	0.74	0.61	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.60	9.97	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-03–2026-11-04	177.4%	27.1%	-44.5%	49.4%	0.73	0.61	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.59	34.66	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

SMA200 with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: -5.3%
2023: 2.7%
2024: 22.4%
2025: -3.4%
2026: -5.2%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: -5.5%
2023: -3.5%
2024: 22.3%
2025: -0.6%
2026: -5.7%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: -5.5%
2023: -3.5%
2024: 22.2%
2025: -1.2%
2026: -6.0%

Rules with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.9%
2024: 15.2%
2025: -3.4%
2026: 0.1%

Rules with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.9%
2024: 15.2%
2025: -3.4%
2026: 0.1%

Cash / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 3.0%
2023: 12.0%
2024: 30.3%
2025: 14.8%
2026: -0.2%

SMA200 with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 3.4%
2026: -5.1%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 3.4%
2026: -5.1%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 3.9%
2026: -6.0%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 3.9%
2026: -6.0%

Rules with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: -1.0%
2026: 0.2%

Rules with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: -1.0%
2026: 0.2%

Logistic regression with fixed cap / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 0.0%
2026: -0.2%

Logistic regression with shared risk controls / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 0.0%
2026: -0.2%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 11.8%
2026: -12.6%

Cash / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Model comparison over the logistic prediction period

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2025: 6.0%
2026: -0.2%

SMA200 with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -2.8%
2025: -3.4%
2026: -5.5%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -2.8%
2025: -3.9%
2026: -5.5%

SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -2.8%
2025: -0.8%
2026: -5.8%

SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -2.8%
2025: -1.3%
2026: -5.8%

Rules with fixed cap / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -0.8%
2025: -3.3%
2026: 0.2%

Rules with shared risk controls / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -0.8%
2025: -3.4%
2026: 0.2%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -9.9%
2025: 21.3%
2026: -12.5%

Cash / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Unleveraged reference buy and hold / Common U.S. period including short-history ETFs

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: -2.7%
2025: 14.8%
2026: -0.2%

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: -5.3%
2023: 2.6%
2024: 22.5%
2025: -4.1%
2026: 2.6%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: -1.4%
2023: 14.9%
2024: 83.9%
2025: 20.9%
2026: 12.7%

/ Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: -3.2%
2023: 4.9%
2024: 11.4%
2025: -2.3%
2026: 9.3%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 0.2%
2023: 14.2%
2024: 81.9%
2025: 20.2%
2026: 11.4%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations
2022-08-02–2025-01-16 Final label exit 2025-01-27	2025-01-28–2025-07-29 Final label exit 2025-08-06	2025-08-07–2026-02-05	618 / 126
2022-08-02–2025-07-21 Final label exit 2025-07-29	2025-07-30–2026-01-28 Final label exit 2026-02-05	2026-02-06–2026-08-07	744 / 126
2022-08-02–2026-01-20 Final label exit 2026-01-28	2026-01-29–2026-07-30 Final label exit 2026-08-07	2026-08-10–2026-10-06	870 / 126

1570 · NEXT FUNDS Nikkei 225 Leveraged Index ETF

Actual ETF history 2012-04-12–2026-10-06 (valid: 3537; missing/inconsistent: 5 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2013-11-25–2021-04-28.

1321 currently proxies the Nikkei 225 Total Return Index. Existing verified split adjustments and separate market budgets are retained.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-26–2021-04-28	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
SMA200 with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
SMA200 ±2% with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
SMA200 ±2% with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Rules with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Rules with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Rules with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Logistic regression with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Logistic regression with shared risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Logistic regression with shared risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Unleveraged reference buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2021-05-10–2025-10-23	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-26–2026-11-04	45.8%	3.0%	-19.7%	9.3%	0.37	0.15	26.8%	298 / 71	70.3%	26.41	42.71	47964.98	Advantage unconfirmed
contrarian200_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-26–2026-11-05	57.8%	3.6%	-14.1%	8.2%	0.48	0.25	76.1%	289 / 71	29.7%	13.21	45.34	56325.67	Advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-26–2026-11-05	996.9%	20.3%	-55.3%	42.6%	0.66	0.37	—	2 / 0	100.0%	—	0.32	996.88	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
contrarian200_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-25–2026-11-05	57.8%	3.6%	-14.1%	8.2%	0.48	0.25	76.1%	289 / 71	29.7%	13.21	45.35	56325.67	Advantage unconfirmed
contrarian200_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-25–2026-11-05	41.9%	2.7%	-14.1%	8.2%	0.38	0.20	73.2%	295 / 71	29.7%	13.21	45.45	186651.70	Advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2012-04-13–2026-11-05	2530.1%	25.2%	-55.3%	43.1%	0.75	0.45	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.15	994.74	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2012-04-13–2026-11-05	2529.8%	25.2%	-55.4%	43.1%	0.75	0.45	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.15	3483.52	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

SMA200 with shared risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 2.8%
2014: -1.9%
2015: 1.5%
2016: 6.2%
2017: 10.3%
2018: -11.4%
2019: 3.9%
2020: 7.3%
2021: -6.3%
2022: -8.1%
2023: 14.1%
2024: -1.3%
2025: 12.8%
2026: 12.5%

/ Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: 6.0%
2015: 3.9%
2016: -4.7%
2017: 1.1%
2018: 4.1%
2019: 7.1%
2020: 3.3%
2021: 9.5%
2022: 2.6%
2023: 2.2%
2024: 11.4%
2025: 0.9%
2026: 0.0%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 9.6%
2014: 12.0%
2015: 14.6%
2016: -4.1%
2017: 43.7%
2018: -24.0%
2019: 42.0%
2020: 28.6%
2021: 8.3%
2022: -18.5%
2023: 65.1%
2024: 33.8%
2025: 52.9%
2026: 36.8%

/ Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: 6.0%
2015: 3.9%
2016: -4.7%
2017: 1.1%
2018: 4.1%
2019: 7.1%
2020: 3.3%
2021: 9.5%
2022: 2.6%
2023: 2.2%
2024: 11.4%
2025: 0.9%
2026: 0.0%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2012: 15.3%
2013: 127.9%
2014: 12.0%
2015: 14.6%
2016: -4.1%
2017: 43.7%
2018: -24.0%
2019: 42.0%
2020: 28.6%
2021: 8.3%
2022: -18.5%
2023: 65.1%
2024: 33.8%
2025: 53.0%
2026: 36.8%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations
2013-11-22–2019-06-07 Final label exit 2019-06-17	2019-06-18–2019-12-19 Final label exit 2019-12-27	2019-12-30–2020-07-08	1353 / 126
2013-11-22–2019-12-11 Final label exit 2019-12-19	2019-12-20–2020-06-30 Final label exit 2020-07-08	2020-07-09–2021-01-15	1479 / 126
2013-11-22–2020-06-22 Final label exit 2020-06-30	2020-07-01–2021-01-06 Final label exit 2021-01-15	2021-01-18–2021-07-20	1605 / 126
2013-11-22–2020-12-17 Final label exit 2020-12-25	2020-12-28–2021-07-12 Final label exit 2021-07-20	2021-07-21–2022-01-26	1725 / 126
2013-11-22–2021-07-02 Final label exit 2021-07-12	2021-07-13–2022-01-18 Final label exit 2022-01-26	2022-01-27–2022-08-02	1851 / 126
2013-11-22–2022-01-07 Final label exit 2022-01-18	2022-01-19–2022-07-25 Final label exit 2022-08-02	2022-08-03–2023-02-07	1977 / 126
2013-11-22–2022-07-14 Final label exit 2022-07-25	2022-07-26–2023-01-30 Final label exit 2023-02-07	2023-02-08–2023-08-10	2103 / 126
2013-11-22–2023-01-20 Final label exit 2023-01-30	2023-01-31–2023-08-02 Final label exit 2023-08-10	2023-08-14–2024-02-16	2229 / 126
2013-11-22–2023-07-25 Final label exit 2023-08-02	2023-08-03–2024-02-07 Final label exit 2024-02-16	2024-02-19–2024-08-21	2355 / 126
2013-11-22–2024-01-30 Final label exit 2024-02-07	2024-02-08–2024-08-13 Final label exit 2024-08-21	2024-08-22–2025-02-28	2481 / 126
2013-11-22–2024-08-02 Final label exit 2024-08-13	2024-08-14–2025-02-19 Final label exit 2025-02-28	2025-03-03–2025-09-02	2607 / 126
2013-11-22–2025-02-10 Final label exit 2025-02-19	2025-02-20–2025-08-25 Final label exit 2025-09-02	2025-09-03–2026-03-12	2733 / 126
2013-11-22–2025-04-02 Final label exit 2025-04-10	2025-04-11–2025-10-15 Final label exit 2025-10-23	2026-03-13–2026-09-15	2767 / 126
2013-11-22–2025-04-02 Final label exit 2025-04-10	2025-04-11–2025-10-15 Final label exit 2025-10-23	2026-09-16–2026-10-06	2767 / 126

SPXS · Direxion Daily SPXS Bear 3X ETF

Actual ETF history 2008-11-19–2026-10-08 (valid: 4498; missing/inconsistent: 10 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2013-11-15–2026-10-08.

A daily inverse product, evaluated using actual ETF prices, splits and distributions. Its leverage multiple may differ from the bull product.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-08	-46.9%	-4.8%	-48.8%	10.2%	-0.43	-0.10	13.2%	245 / 38	17.2%	14.71	24.37	633.45	Advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-08	-45.6%	-4.6%	-46.1%	10.1%	-0.42	-0.10	21.1%	261 / 38	17.2%	14.71	25.36	187.24	Advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-08	-50.6%	-5.3%	-52.5%	11.3%	-0.43	-0.10	15.8%	253 / 38	17.2%	14.71	25.10	182.04	Advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-08	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-11-04	-43.3%	-4.3%	-45.5%	10.1%	-0.38	-0.09	15.8%	244 / 38	17.1%	14.71	24.44	186.49	Advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION
trend200_momentum20_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-14–2026-11-04	-26.2%	-2.3%	-29.0%	9.4%	-0.20	-0.08	33.3%	216 / 45	11.6%	8.42	28.24	247.63	Advantage unconfirmed
trend200_momentum20_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-14–2026-11-04	-30.6%	-2.8%	-33.0%	9.4%	-0.25	-0.08	31.1%	221 / 45	11.6%	8.42	28.31	842.19	Advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2008-11-20–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2011-02-24', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'SPXS'}]
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2008-11-20–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2011-02-24', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'SPXS'}]

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

Inverse SMA200 with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: -1.9%
2015: -10.6%
2016: -1.8%
2017: 0.0%
2018: -0.4%
2019: -11.5%
2020: -18.3%
2021: 0.0%
2022: -2.1%
2023: -11.1%
2024: 0.0%
2025: -6.2%
2026: -2.5%

Cash / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: 0.0%
2015: 0.0%
2016: 0.0%
2017: 0.0%
2018: 0.0%
2019: 0.0%
2020: 0.0%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Inverse SMA200 with risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: -1.9%
2015: -10.6%
2016: -1.8%
2017: 0.0%
2018: -0.4%
2019: -11.5%
2020: -7.5%
2021: 0.0%
2022: -1.7%
2023: -11.1%
2024: 0.0%
2025: -5.2%
2026: -2.5%

/ Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: -1.9%
2015: -7.1%
2016: 2.1%
2017: 0.0%
2018: 3.6%
2019: -5.8%
2020: -5.8%
2021: 0.0%
2022: -0.2%
2023: -9.1%
2024: 0.0%
2025: -2.5%
2026: -2.5%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations

SQQQ · ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ

Actual ETF history 2010-03-09–2026-10-08 (valid: 4161; missing/inconsistent: 31 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2013-11-15–2026-10-08.

A daily inverse product, evaluated using actual ETF prices, splits and distributions. Its leverage multiple may differ from the bull product.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-08	-42.4%	-4.2%	-42.5%	10.8%	-0.34	-0.10	11.5%	259 / 26	16.5%	20.54	18.41	461.10	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-08	-31.6%	-2.9%	-32.7%	10.6%	-0.22	-0.09	19.2%	259 / 26	16.5%	20.54	18.84	152.55	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-08	-47.7%	-4.9%	-47.7%	12.1%	-0.35	-0.10	15.4%	262 / 26	16.5%	20.54	19.34	134.62	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-10-08	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-11-04	-39.7%	-3.8%	-40.8%	10.7%	-0.31	-0.09	15.4%	264 / 26	16.4%	20.54	18.41	134.59	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-15–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION
trend200_momentum20_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-14–2026-11-04	-27.2%	-2.4%	-34.4%	9.7%	-0.20	-0.07	39.5%	232 / 38	11.3%	9.66	23.89	187.76	Advantage unconfirmed
trend200_momentum20_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2013-11-14–2026-11-04	-31.9%	-2.9%	-37.0%	9.7%	-0.26	-0.08	36.8%	220 / 38	11.3%	9.66	23.81	633.19	Advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2010-03-10–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2012-05-11', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'SQQQ'}]
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2010-03-10–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2012-05-11', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'SQQQ'}]

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

Inverse SMA200 with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: -0.0%
2015: -15.1%
2016: -9.0%
2017: 0.0%
2018: 3.8%
2019: -14.9%
2020: -17.3%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 14.4%
2023: -11.2%
2024: 0.0%
2025: -6.4%
2026: -2.5%

Cash / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: 0.0%
2015: 0.0%
2016: 0.0%
2017: 0.0%
2018: 0.0%
2019: 0.0%
2020: 0.0%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Inverse SMA200 with risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: -0.0%
2015: -15.1%
2016: -9.0%
2017: 0.0%
2018: 4.1%
2019: -13.7%
2020: -9.8%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 14.6%
2023: -10.8%
2024: 0.0%
2025: -3.3%
2026: -2.5%

/ Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2013: 0.0%
2014: -0.0%
2015: -16.0%
2016: -5.0%
2017: 0.0%
2018: 1.1%
2019: -5.8%
2020: -10.7%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 16.6%
2023: -7.1%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 1.6%
2026: -2.6%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations

TECS · Direxion Daily TECS Bear 3X ETF

Actual ETF history 2010-01-29–2026-10-08 (valid: 3202; missing/inconsistent: 1277 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2017-06-02–2026-10-08.

A daily inverse product, evaluated using actual ETF prices, splits and distributions. Its leverage multiple may differ from the bull product.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2017-06-02–2026-10-08	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2017-06-02–2026-10-08	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION
Inverse SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2017-06-02–2026-10-08	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2017-06-02–2026-10-08	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2026-07-17–2026-10-08	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2026-07-17–2026-10-08	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2026-07-17–2026-10-08	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2017-06-02–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2017-06-02–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION
trend200_momentum20_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2014-01-28–2026-11-04	-21.6%	-1.9%	-32.7%	9.7%	-0.15	-0.06	25.7%	216 / 35	10.5%	9.66	21.42	185.19	Advantage unconfirmed
trend200_momentum20_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2014-01-28–2026-11-04	-26.3%	-2.4%	-35.4%	9.7%	-0.20	-0.07	25.7%	212 / 35	10.5%	9.66	21.36	628.52	Advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2010-02-01–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2018-03-29', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'TECS'}]
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2010-02-01–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2010-07-08', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'TECS'}]

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

Cash / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2017: 0.0%
2018: 0.0%
2019: 0.0%
2020: 0.0%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Inverse SMA200 with risk controls / Short-period diagnostic after the latest reverse split (insufficient sample)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2026: 0.0%

/ Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2014: 0.0%
2015: -3.0%
2016: -1.0%
2017: 0.0%
2018: -5.2%
2019: -5.0%
2020: -12.8%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 9.2%
2023: -4.1%
2024: -2.8%
2025: 5.7%
2026: -3.4%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations

SOXS · Direxion Daily SOXS Bear 3X ETF

Actual ETF history 2017-06-09–2026-10-08 (valid: 2185; missing/inconsistent: 1986 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2018-08-13–2026-10-08.

A daily inverse product, evaluated using actual ETF prices, splits and distributions. Its leverage multiple may differ from the bull product.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2018-08-13–2026-10-08	-39.2%	-5.9%	-50.6%	14.1%	-0.36	-0.12	23.1%	264 / 26	24.0%	18.88	14.77	410.75	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2018-08-13–2026-10-08	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION
Inverse SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2018-08-13–2026-10-08	-61.7%	-11.1%	-67.8%	20.8%	-0.46	-0.16	15.4%	312 / 26	24.0%	18.88	20.74	131.37	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2018-08-13–2026-10-08	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2018-08-13–2026-11-04	-35.7%	-5.2%	-49.4%	14.0%	-0.31	-0.11	23.1%	271 / 26	23.9%	18.88	14.99	120.56	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2018-08-13–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION
trend200_momentum20_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2017-06-12–2026-11-04	-36.4%	-4.7%	-47.8%	11.6%	-0.36	-0.10	23.8%	224 / 42	14.4%	8.05	21.75	182.15	Advantage unconfirmed
trend200_momentum20_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2017-06-12–2026-11-04	-39.7%	-5.2%	-50.0%	11.6%	-0.41	-0.10	23.8%	220 / 42	14.4%	8.05	21.74	623.56	Advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2017-06-12–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2020-08-28', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'SOXS'}]
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2017-06-12–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2020-08-28', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'SOXS'}]

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

Inverse SMA200 with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2018: 10.6%
2019: -15.6%
2020: -30.9%
2021: 0.0%
2022: -0.2%
2023: -14.5%
2024: -12.8%
2025: -20.4%
2026: 0.0%

Cash / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2018: 0.0%
2019: 0.0%
2020: 0.0%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Inverse SMA200 with risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2018: 10.6%
2019: -12.4%
2020: -13.4%
2021: 0.0%
2022: 0.9%
2023: -10.8%
2024: -8.7%
2025: -9.4%
2026: 2.8%

/ Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2017: 0.0%
2018: 2.6%
2019: -5.0%
2020: -10.6%
2021: 0.0%
2022: -0.2%
2023: -8.4%
2024: -16.7%
2025: -6.7%
2026: 2.8%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations

FAZ · Direxion Daily FAZ Bear 3X ETF

Actual ETF history 2022-08-01–2026-10-08 (valid: 1052; missing/inconsistent: 0 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2022-09-29–2026-10-08.

A daily inverse product, evaluated using actual ETF prices, splits and distributions. Its leverage multiple may differ from the bull product.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-29–2026-10-08	-33.1%	-9.5%	-33.7%	9.6%	-1.00	-0.28	7.1%	93 / 14	25.4%	18.36	9.32	252.49	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2022-09-29–2026-10-08	-28.1%	-7.9%	-29.3%	9.6%	-0.81	-0.27	28.6%	89 / 14	25.5%	18.43	9.38	72.44	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-29–2026-10-08	-32.0%	-9.1%	-32.6%	9.6%	-0.95	-0.28	7.1%	89 / 14	25.4%	18.36	9.36	73.19	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-29–2026-10-08	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-29–2026-11-04	-31.7%	-8.9%	-32.4%	9.5%	-0.94	-0.27	7.1%	91 / 14	25.0%	18.36	9.29	72.60	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-29–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION
current200_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-28–2026-11-04	-32.0%	-9.0%	-32.3%	9.5%	-0.94	-0.28	7.1%	95 / 14	25.0%	18.43	9.34	72.69	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
current200_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-09-28–2026-11-04	-33.6%	-9.5%	-33.8%	9.5%	-1.00	-0.28	7.1%	93 / 14	25.0%	18.43	9.34	250.81	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-02–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2025-09-29', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'FAZ'}]
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-02–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2025-09-29', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'FAZ'}]

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

Inverse SMA200 with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: -14.9%
2023: -5.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: -13.2%
2026: -3.1%

Cash / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Inverse SMA200 with risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: -14.9%
2023: -5.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: -12.8%
2026: -3.1%

/ Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: -15.4%
2023: -4.8%
2024: 0.0%
2025: -12.8%
2026: -3.1%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations

NVDD · Direxion Daily NVDD Bear 1X ETF

Actual ETF history 2023-09-13–2026-10-08 (valid: 771; missing/inconsistent: 0 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2023-09-15–2026-10-08.

A daily inverse product, evaluated using actual ETF prices, splits and distributions. Its leverage multiple may differ from the bull product.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2023-09-15–2026-10-08	-1.8%	-0.6%	-2.1%	1.0%	-0.61	-0.29	0.0%	12 / 5	9.0%	13.80	0.50	17.21	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2023-09-15–2026-10-08	-1.1%	-0.4%	-2.1%	1.0%	-0.36	-0.17	40.0%	12 / 5	9.0%	13.80	0.50	5.02	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-09-15–2026-10-08	-1.7%	-0.6%	-2.0%	1.0%	-0.57	-0.28	0.0%	12 / 5	9.0%	13.80	0.50	4.92	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-09-15–2026-10-08	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-09-15–2026-11-04	-1.7%	-0.5%	-2.0%	1.0%	-0.54	-0.26	16.7%	14 / 6	8.9%	11.67	0.59	5.87	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-09-15–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION
current200_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-09-14–2026-11-04	-1.7%	-0.5%	-2.0%	1.0%	-0.54	-0.26	16.7%	14 / 6	8.9%	11.67	0.59	5.87	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
current200_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2023-09-14–2026-11-04	-1.8%	-0.6%	-2.1%	1.0%	-0.59	-0.28	16.7%	14 / 6	8.9%	11.67	0.59	20.56	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2023-09-14–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2025-09-29', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'NVDD'}]
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2023-09-14–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2025-09-29', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'NVDD'}]

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

Inverse SMA200 with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: -1.5%
2026: -0.3%

Cash / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Inverse SMA200 with risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: -1.5%
2026: -0.2%

/ Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: -1.5%
2026: -0.2%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations

MUD · Direxion Daily MUD Bear 1X ETF

Actual ETF history 2024-10-18–2026-10-08 (valid: 490; missing/inconsistent: 10 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2024-12-26–2026-03-04.

A daily inverse product, evaluated using actual ETF prices, splits and distributions. Its leverage multiple may differ from the bull product.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-12-26–2026-03-04	-1.4%	-1.2%	-2.7%	2.2%	-0.51	-0.43	0.0%	9 / 3	32.8%	32.33	0.32	11.01	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2024-12-26–2026-03-04	-1.1%	-0.9%	-2.4%	2.2%	-0.40	-0.38	0.0%	9 / 3	33.1%	32.67	0.32	3.14	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-12-26–2026-03-04	-1.3%	-1.1%	-2.6%	2.2%	-0.48	-0.41	0.0%	9 / 3	32.8%	32.33	0.32	3.15	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-12-26–2026-03-04	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-12-26–2026-11-04	-1.3%	-0.7%	-2.6%	1.8%	-0.39	-0.26	0.0%	9 / 3	20.8%	32.33	0.32	3.15	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-12-26–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION
trend200_momentum20_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-10-21–2026-11-04	-1.1%	-0.5%	-2.1%	1.4%	-0.36	-0.25	36.4%	24 / 11	12.1%	5.64	1.08	10.71	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
trend200_momentum20_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-10-21–2026-11-04	-1.4%	-0.7%	-2.3%	1.4%	-0.46	-0.29	36.4%	24 / 11	12.1%	5.64	1.08	37.47	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2024-10-21–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2026-03-10', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'MUD'}]
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2024-10-21–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2026-03-10', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'MUD'}]

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

Inverse SMA200 with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.3%
2025: -1.5%
2026: 0.0%

Cash / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Inverse SMA200 with risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.3%
2025: -1.5%
2026: 0.0%

/ Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2024: 0.3%
2025: -1.4%
2026: 0.0%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations

TSLS · Direxion Daily TSLS Bear 1X ETF

Actual ETF history 2022-08-10–2026-10-08 (valid: 1045; missing/inconsistent: 1 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2022-10-10–2026-10-08.

A daily inverse product, evaluated using actual ETF prices, splits and distributions. Its leverage multiple may differ from the bull product.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-10-10–2026-10-08	-6.6%	-1.7%	-9.9%	2.2%	-0.78	-0.17	4.0%	57 / 25	48.0%	16.60	2.44	83.73	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2022-10-10–2026-10-08	-4.9%	-1.3%	-8.4%	2.2%	-0.58	-0.15	24.0%	60 / 25	48.0%	16.64	2.52	24.79	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-10-10–2026-10-08	-6.0%	-1.5%	-9.3%	2.2%	-0.71	-0.16	4.0%	57 / 25	48.0%	16.60	2.44	23.98	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-10-10–2026-10-08	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—	0 / 0	0.0%	—	0.00	0.00	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-10-10–2026-11-04	-6.3%	-1.6%	-9.4%	2.2%	-0.73	-0.17	3.8%	58 / 26	48.2%	18.96	2.49	24.39	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-10-10–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION
trend100_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-11–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2026-03-10', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'TSLS'}]
trend100_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-11–2026-11-04	-5.6%	-1.4%	-8.8%	2.1%	-0.64	-0.15	20.7%	66 / 29	43.7%	16.03	2.76	94.65	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-11–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2026-03-10', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'TSLS'}]
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2022-08-11–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2026-03-10', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': 'TSLS'}]

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

Inverse SMA200 with fixed cap / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 2.8%
2023: -3.6%
2024: -0.5%
2025: -3.4%
2026: -1.2%

Cash / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 0.0%
2023: 0.0%
2024: 0.0%
2025: 0.0%
2026: 0.0%

Inverse SMA200 with risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2022: 2.8%
2023: -3.6%
2024: -0.5%
2025: -3.4%
2026: -1.5%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations

1357 · NEXT FUNDS Nikkei 225 Double Inverse ETF

Actual ETF history 2014-07-16–2026-10-09 (valid: 2983; missing/inconsistent: 6 observations). Advantage unconfirmed; continuous evaluation: 2014-08-13–2024-12-13.

A daily inverse product, evaluated using actual ETF prices, splits and distributions. Its leverage multiple may differ from the bull product.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls high / Delay +0 sessions	2014-08-13–2024-12-13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +1 sessions	2014-08-13–2024-12-13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Inverse SMA200 with fixed cap standard / Delay +0 sessions	2014-08-13–2024-12-13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Cash standard / Delay +0 sessions	2014-08-13–2024-12-13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Earlier research before price corrections. For the corrected current model, see the full available period.
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2014-08-13–2026-11-04	-49.7%	-5.5%	-53.2%	8.8%	-0.62	-0.10	20.6%	273 / 63	30.0%	14.21	37.92	28863.92	Advantage unconfirmed
contrarian200_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2014-09-16–2026-11-05	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2014-09-16–2026-11-05	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION
contrarian200_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2014-08-11–2026-11-05	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2024-12-16', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': '1357'}]
contrarian200_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2014-08-11–2026-11-05	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2024-12-16', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': '1357'}]
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2014-07-17–2026-11-05	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2024-12-16', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': '1357'}]
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2014-07-17–2026-11-05	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Full-period evaluation incomplete: [{'session': '2024-12-16', 'code': 'FRACTIONAL_CORPORATE_ACTION', 'symbol': '1357'}]

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

Inverse SMA200 with risk controls / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2014: -0.5%
2015: -5.5%
2016: 0.1%
2017: -1.6%
2018: -6.6%
2019: -8.5%
2020: -5.2%
2021: -10.2%
2022: -5.8%
2023: -2.7%
2024: -14.7%
2025: -4.6%
2026: 0.0%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations

SPCH · Leverage Shares 2X Long SPCX Daily ETF

Actual ETF history 2026-06-15–2026-10-23 (valid: 92; missing/inconsistent: 0 observations). Insufficient SMA200 history; buy-and-hold comparisons only; continuous evaluation: 2026-06-16–2026-10-23.

Listed on 2026-06-15 and linked to daily returns of SpaceX shares. No pre-listing history is used.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2026-06-16–2026-10-23	-59.5%	-92.1%	-75.3%	148.4%	-0.92	-1.22	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	2.23	34.88	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
SMA200 with shared risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2026-06-17–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Fewer than 200 trading sessions of reference-stock history. The trading strategy has not been evaluated.
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2026-06-17–2026-11-04	-69.0%	-95.2%	-77.1%	146.6%	-1.29	-1.23	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	2.51	9.97	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
current200_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2026-11-04–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Required observed-data history is not yet available.
current200_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2026-11-04–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Required observed-data history is not yet available.
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2026-06-16–2026-11-04	-66.0%	-93.8%	-75.3%	144.8%	-1.15	-1.25	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	2.26	9.98	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2026-06-16–2026-11-04	-66.1%	-93.8%	-75.3%	144.9%	-1.15	-1.25	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	2.26	34.88	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

Actual ETF buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2026: -69.0%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2026: -66.0%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations

SSPC · Leverage Shares 2X Short SPCX Daily ETF

Listed on 2026-06-15 and linked to daily returns of SpaceX shares. No pre-listing history is used.

All strategies, costs and delay cases. Short periods or fewer than 30 completed episodes are insufficient samples.
Strategy / conditions	Period	Total return	CAGR	Max drawdown	Annual volatility	Sharpe	Calmar	Win rate (completed episodes)	Orders / completed episodes	Time in market	Mean holding period (sessions)	Turnover	Costs (local currency)	Status
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2026-06-16–2026-10-23	0.4%	1.0%	-71.5%	149.8%	0.76	0.01	—	2 / 0	100.0%	—	0.70	34.65	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Inverse SMA200 with risk controls standard / Delay +0 sessions	2026-06-17–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Fewer than 200 trading sessions of reference-stock history. The trading strategy has not been evaluated.
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2026-06-17–2026-11-04	25.3%	79.2%	-71.7%	149.2%	1.13	1.10	—	2 / 0	100.0%	—	0.66	9.99	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
current200_managed standard / Delay +0 sessions	2026-11-04–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Required observed-data history is not yet available.
current200_managed high / Delay +0 sessions	2026-11-04–2026-11-04	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	— / —	—	—	—	—	Required observed-data history is not yet available.
Actual ETF buy and hold standard / Delay +0 sessions	2026-06-16–2026-11-04	13.6%	38.8%	-69.3%	137.7%	0.93	0.56	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.67	9.13	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed
Actual ETF buy and hold high / Delay +0 sessions	2026-06-16–2026-11-04	13.3%	38.0%	-69.3%	137.8%	0.92	0.55	—	1 / 0	100.0%	—	0.67	31.93	Insufficient sample; advantage unconfirmed

Annual returns, equity curves and training windows

Actual ETF buy and hold / Longest continuous available history

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2026: 25.3%

Actual ETF buy and hold / Full available ETF history (withheld if required history is insufficient)

Each comparison uses the same start date, end date, initial capital and costs. The final year is partial if year-end has not been reached.

2026: 13.6%

Actual walk-forward logistic training, calibration and prediction windows
Training	Calibration	Prediction	Observations

Currently collected earnings schedules are not applied retrospectively. An event guard is a candidate for future paper-trading evaluation. Single-stock leveraged ETFs are not evaluated using simply twice the underlying stock’s returns.

Research data JSON (derived values)