{
  "version": "2026-11-01.2",
  "asOf": "2026-11-01",
  "unit": "USD billions",
  "classification": "Conditional scenario calculation, not company guidance or a statistically calibrated forecast",
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026067168/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm",
      "type": "SEC filing",
      "date": "2026-10-26"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-ipo-valuation-hinges-on-190200-billion-2028-revenue-forecast-sources-say-4862222?ampMode=1",
      "type": "Reuters source-based report; not confirmed company guidance",
      "date": "2026-08-14"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-revenue-run-rate-tops-65-billion-source-says-4864031",
      "type": "Reuters source-based run-rate report",
      "date": "2026-08-17"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-invests-50-billion-in-american-ai-infrastructure",
      "type": "Company project announcement; not annual capex guidance; not added to model",
      "date": "2025-11-12"
    }
  ],
  "opening": {
    "date": "2026-06-30",
    "cash": 112.389,
    "shortTermInvestments": 19.262,
    "receivables": 5.833,
    "restrictedCashExcluded": true
  },
  "formulas": {
    "additionalRevenue": "max(0,burn) / (1 - dso/periodDays - salesRate - adminRate); independent period, unchanged opening receivables and fixed compute/payroll/interest/tax",
    "receipts": "revenue + prior receivables - ending receivables",
    "endingReceivables": "revenue / period days * dso; H2=184 days, annual=365 days",
    "compute": "sum(named contract payments) * (1 + contingency)",
    "costs": "compute + revenue * salesRate + payroll + revenue * adminRate + interest + taxReserve",
    "burn": "costs - receipts",
    "balance": "prior balance - burn + equityFunding",
    "shortfall": "max(0, -minimum period-end balance)"
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Annual contract allocations are assumptions, not published annual capex.",
    "85% achievement rate is editorial, not statistically estimated.",
    "Run-rate and annual revenue are different measures.",
    "No probabilities assigned to scenarios.",
    "No minimum operating cash or intra-year liquidity timing.",
    "No interest income, working-capital changes other than receivables, or contract renegotiations.",
    "Existing convertible instruments assumed equity-settled; new debt not modeled.",
    "Potential overlapping compute supply chains require further contract reconciliation.",
    "Numbers after a deficit assume unchanged operations and measure hypothetical funding gaps, not feasible negative cash."
  ],
  "periods": [
    "H2 2026",
    "2027",
    "2028",
    "2029"
  ],
  "caseParameters": {
    "base": {
      "name": "Base",
      "description": "Approximately 85% of the reported 2028 revenue reference, with phased capacity delivery, selling payments at 20% of revenue and 45-day collection. A comparison baseline, not a probability-weighted or most-likely forecast.",
      "revenue": [
        40,
        110,
        165,
        215
      ],
      "dso": 45,
      "salesRate": 0.2,
      "payroll": [
        1.5,
        4,
        5.2,
        6.8
      ],
      "adminRate": 0.06,
      "tax": [
        0.3,
        1,
        2,
        3
      ],
      "contingency": 0.1,
      "interest": [
        1,
        7,
        6,
        4
      ],
      "contracts": {
        "microsoft": [
          1.1512820512820512,
          6.907692307692307,
          6.907692307692307,
          6.907692307692307
        ],
        "google": [
          7.806818181818182,
          15.613636363636363,
          15.613636363636363,
          15.613636363636363
        ],
        "amazon": [
          5.5,
          11,
          11,
          11
        ],
        "spacex": [
          10,
          37.2,
          37.2,
          37.2
        ],
        "broadcom": [
          4,
          24.18,
          32.24,
          32.24
        ],
        "nscale": [
          0,
          3.2,
          6.4,
          6.4
        ],
        "lambda": [
          0.5,
          2.6,
          5.2,
          5.2
        ],
        "amd": [
          0,
          6,
          6,
          6
        ],
        "tpu": [
          0,
          0,
          13.75,
          27.5
        ]
      }
    },
    "best": {
      "name": "Upside",
      "description": "The upper end of the reported 2028 revenue reference ($200 billion), 30-day collection and selling payments at 17%. SpaceX capacity is reduced as new TPU capacity becomes available. Assumes smooth cancellation and substitution.",
      "revenue": [
        45,
        125,
        200,
        270
      ],
      "dso": 30,
      "salesRate": 0.17,
      "payroll": [
        1.4,
        3.6,
        4.7,
        6.1
      ],
      "adminRate": 0.05,
      "tax": [
        0.3,
        1,
        3,
        6
      ],
      "contingency": 0.05,
      "interest": [
        0.8,
        5,
        4,
        3
      ],
      "contracts": {
        "microsoft": [
          1.1512820512820512,
          6.907692307692307,
          6.907692307692307,
          6.907692307692307
        ],
        "google": [
          7.806818181818182,
          15.613636363636363,
          15.613636363636363,
          15.613636363636363
        ],
        "amazon": [
          5.5,
          11,
          11,
          11
        ],
        "spacex": [
          8,
          31,
          24.8,
          18.6
        ],
        "broadcom": [
          3,
          20,
          30,
          32.24
        ],
        "nscale": [
          0,
          2.5,
          5,
          6.4
        ],
        "lambda": [
          0.3,
          2,
          4,
          5.2
        ],
        "amd": [
          0,
          4,
          4,
          4
        ],
        "tpu": [
          0,
          0,
          12.5,
          25
        ]
      }
    },
    "worst": {
      "name": "Downside",
      "description": "Approximately 63% of the lower reported 2028 revenue reference, 75-day collection and selling payments at 22%. Capacity is delivered and payments come due despite weaker demand. Not an absolute worst case.",
      "revenue": [
        32,
        80,
        120,
        150
      ],
      "dso": 75,
      "salesRate": 0.22,
      "payroll": [
        1.7,
        4.5,
        6,
        8
      ],
      "adminRate": 0.08,
      "tax": [
        0.5,
        1,
        1.5,
        2
      ],
      "contingency": 0.15,
      "interest": [
        1.5,
        10,
        9,
        7
      ],
      "contracts": {
        "microsoft": [
          1.1512820512820512,
          6.907692307692307,
          6.907692307692307,
          6.907692307692307
        ],
        "google": [
          7.806818181818182,
          15.613636363636363,
          15.613636363636363,
          15.613636363636363
        ],
        "amazon": [
          5.5,
          11,
          11,
          11
        ],
        "spacex": [
          12,
          37.2,
          37.2,
          37.2
        ],
        "broadcom": [
          6,
          32.24,
          32.24,
          32.24
        ],
        "nscale": [
          0.5,
          6.4,
          6.4,
          6.4
        ],
        "lambda": [
          1,
          5.2,
          5.2,
          5.2
        ],
        "amd": [
          0,
          10,
          10,
          10
        ],
        "tpu": [
          0,
          0,
          30,
          45
        ]
      }
    }
  },
  "contractEvidence": [
    {
      "id": "microsoft",
      "name": "Microsoft",
      "fact": "$44.9bn; November 2026–May 2033.",
      "method": "Allocated evenly over approximately 78 months. Estimated annual payments, not a disclosed billing schedule; partial months are approximated."
    },
    {
      "id": "google",
      "name": "Google",
      "fact": "$114.5bn; April 2026–July 2033.",
      "method": "Allocated over 88 months as an annual approximation of minimum purchases independent of usage."
    },
    {
      "id": "amazon",
      "name": "Amazon",
      "fact": "$110bn; May 2026–April 2036.",
      "method": "$11bn annually over ten years. This is not an outstanding balance net of past payments."
    },
    {
      "id": "spacex",
      "name": "SpaceX AI",
      "fact": "$3.1bn per month after full capacity delivery; cancellation provisions after the initial term.",
      "method": "Base/downside: $37.2bn annually. Upside: 10, 8 and 6 months of equivalent payments in 2027–29, assuming replacement capacity. H2 ramp: $8bn/$10bn/$12bn in upside/base/downside."
    },
    {
      "id": "broadcom",
      "name": "Broadcom lease principal",
      "fact": "$161.2bn over five years, excluding interest.",
      "method": "Full-year reference: $32.24bn. 2027 base/upside/downside: 75%/approximately 62%/100%. Delivery and prepayments are uncertain; the ramp is assumed. Interest is separate."
    },
    {
      "id": "nscale",
      "name": "Nscale",
      "fact": "Up to $44.6bn through 2033; billing after delivery and acceptance.",
      "method": "Approximately $6.4bn annually over seven years. 2027 base/upside/downside: half/approximately 40%/full capacity."
    },
    {
      "id": "lambda",
      "name": "Lambda",
      "fact": "Approximately $41.3bn through 2034; billing after delivery and acceptance.",
      "method": "Approximately $5.2bn annually over eight years. 2027 base/upside/downside: half/approximately 40%/full capacity."
    },
    {
      "id": "amd",
      "name": "AMD",
      "fact": "Over $20bn if all initial capacity is procured; no fixed amount.",
      "method": "Base: $24bn over four years. Upside: $20bn over five. Downside: $30bn over three. Both totals and periods are editorial assumptions."
    },
    {
      "id": "tpu",
      "name": "Additional TPU capacity",
      "fact": "Estimated $125–150bn; delivery in 2028–31.",
      "method": "Base: 10%/20% of $137.5bn paid in 2028/29. Upside: 10%/20% of $125bn. Downside: 20%/30% of $150bn. Remaining payments fall in 2030 or later; delivery and payment periods differ."
    }
  ],
  "initialResults": {
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          "incrementalCashMargin": 0.4954347826086956,
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