{ "version": "2026-11-01.2", "asOf": "2026-11-01", "unit": "USD billions; multiply by 10 for 億ドル", "classification": "Conditional scenario calculation, not company guidance or a statistically calibrated forecast", "sources": [ { "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026067168/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm", "type": "SEC filing", "date": "2026-10-26" }, { "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-ipo-valuation-hinges-on-190200-billion-2028-revenue-forecast-sources-say-4862222?ampMode=1", "type": "Reuters source-based report; not confirmed company guidance", "date": "2026-08-14" }, { "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-revenue-run-rate-tops-65-billion-source-says-4864031", "type": "Reuters source-based run-rate report", "date": "2026-08-17" }, { "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-invests-50-billion-in-american-ai-infrastructure", "type": "Company project announcement; not annual capex guidance; not added to model", "date": "2025-11-12" } ], "opening": { "date": "2026-06-30", "cash": 112.389, "shortTermInvestments": 19.262, "receivables": 5.833, "restrictedCashExcluded": true }, "formulas": { "additionalRevenue": "max(0,burn) / (1 - dso/periodDays - salesRate - adminRate); independent period, unchanged opening receivables and fixed compute/payroll/interest/tax", "receipts": "revenue + prior receivables - ending receivables", "endingReceivables": "revenue / period days * dso; H2=184 days, annual=365 days", "compute": "sum(named contract payments) * (1 + contingency)", "costs": "compute + revenue * salesRate + payroll + revenue * adminRate + interest + taxReserve", "burn": "costs - receipts", "balance": "prior balance - burn + equityFunding", "shortfall": "max(0, -minimum period-end balance)" }, "limitations": [ "Annual contract allocations are assumptions, not published annual capex.", "85% achievement rate is editorial, not statistically estimated.", "Run-rate and annual revenue are different measures.", "No probabilities assigned to scenarios.", "No minimum operating cash or intra-year liquidity timing.", "No interest income, working-capital changes other than receivables, or contract renegotiations.", "Existing convertible instruments assumed equity-settled; new debt not modeled.", "Potential overlapping compute supply chains require further contract reconciliation.", "Numbers after a deficit assume unchanged operations and measure hypothetical funding gaps, not feasible negative cash." ], "periods": [ "2026年下期", "2027年", "2028年", "2029年" ], "caseParameters": { "base": { "name": "ベース", "description": "報道された2028年売上予測の約85%を達成。契約稼働は段階的に進み、販売費率20%、回収45日を仮定。確率加重した期待値ではなく、比較の基準として置いた仮定。最尤予測ではない。", "revenue": [ 40, 110, 165, 215 ], "dso": 45, "salesRate": 0.2, "payroll": [ 1.5, 4, 5.2, 6.8 ], "adminRate": 0.06, "tax": [ 0.3, 1, 2, 3 ], "contingency": 0.1, "interest": [ 1, 7, 6, 4 ], "contracts": { "microsoft": [ 1.1512820512820512, 6.907692307692307, 6.907692307692307, 6.907692307692307 ], "google": [ 7.806818181818182, 15.613636363636363, 15.613636363636363, 15.613636363636363 ], "amazon": [ 5.5, 11, 11, 11 ], "spacex": [ 10, 37.2, 37.2, 37.2 ], "broadcom": [ 4, 24.18, 32.24, 32.24 ], "nscale": [ 0, 3.2, 6.4, 6.4 ], "lambda": [ 0.5, 2.6, 5.2, 5.2 ], "amd": [ 0, 6, 6, 6 ], "tpu": [ 0, 0, 13.75, 27.5 ] } }, "best": { "name": "ベスト", "description": "2028年に報道予測の上限2000億ドルを達成。回収30日・販売費率17%に改善し、SpaceX枠を縮小して新しいTPUへ移す。解約・代替稼働が円滑な上振れケース。", "revenue": [ 45, 125, 200, 270 ], "dso": 30, "salesRate": 0.17, "payroll": [ 1.4, 3.6, 4.7, 6.1 ], "adminRate": 0.05, "tax": [ 0.3, 1, 3, 6 ], "contingency": 0.05, "interest": [ 0.8, 5, 4, 3 ], "contracts": { "microsoft": [ 1.1512820512820512, 6.907692307692307, 6.907692307692307, 6.907692307692307 ], "google": [ 7.806818181818182, 15.613636363636363, 15.613636363636363, 15.613636363636363 ], "amazon": [ 5.5, 11, 11, 11 ], "spacex": [ 8, 31, 24.8, 18.6 ], "broadcom": [ 3, 20, 30, 32.24 ], "nscale": [ 0, 2.5, 5, 6.4 ], "lambda": [ 0.3, 2, 4, 5.2 ], "amd": [ 0, 4, 4, 4 ], "tpu": [ 0, 0, 12.5, 25 ] } }, "worst": { "name": "ワースト", "description": "2028年売上は報道予測下限の約63%。回収75日・販売費率22%。需要が弱くても計算資源は納入され、支払いと前払いが先行する下振れケース。絶対的な最悪値ではない。", "revenue": [ 32, 80, 120, 150 ], "dso": 75, "salesRate": 0.22, "payroll": [ 1.7, 4.5, 6, 8 ], "adminRate": 0.08, "tax": [ 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2 ], "contingency": 0.15, "interest": [ 1.5, 10, 9, 7 ], "contracts": { "microsoft": [ 1.1512820512820512, 6.907692307692307, 6.907692307692307, 6.907692307692307 ], "google": [ 7.806818181818182, 15.613636363636363, 15.613636363636363, 15.613636363636363 ], "amazon": [ 5.5, 11, 11, 11 ], "spacex": [ 12, 37.2, 37.2, 37.2 ], "broadcom": [ 6, 32.24, 32.24, 32.24 ], "nscale": [ 0.5, 6.4, 6.4, 6.4 ], "lambda": [ 1, 5.2, 5.2, 5.2 ], "amd": [ 0, 10, 10, 10 ], "tpu": [ 0, 0, 30, 45 ] } } }, "contractEvidence": [ { "id": "microsoft", "name": "Microsoft", "fact": "449億ドル／2026年11月〜2033年5月", "method": "約78か月で均等配分。契約上の年別請求額ではなく推計。期間の端月の扱いも近似。" }, { "id": "google", "name": "Google", "fact": "1,145億ドル／2026年4月〜2033年7月", "method": "88か月で均等配分。利用量に連動しない最低購入義務の年次近似。" }, { "id": "amazon", "name": "Amazon", "fact": "1,100億ドル／2026年5月〜2036年4月", "method": "10年で均等配分、年110億ドル。過去支払額を差し引いた残債額ではない。" }, { "id": "spacex", "name": "SpaceX AI", "fact": "全容量納入後31億ドル／月、初期期間後に解約条項", "method": "ベース・ワーストは年372億ドル。ベストは2027〜29年を10・8・6か月分相当に削減。代替能力が確保できることを仮定。下期は稼働立ち上がりを80/100/120億と仮定。" }, { "id": "broadcom", "name": "Broadcomリース元本", "fact": "総額1,612億ドル、5年、利息別", "method": "全稼働年額322.4億ドルを基準。2027年はベース75%、ベスト約62%、ワースト100%相当。前払・納入時期が不明なため稼働曲線は仮定。利息は別項目。" }, { "id": "nscale", "name": "Nscale", "fact": "最大446億ドル、2033年まで、納入・受入後に課金", "method": "7年配分の年約64億ドルを基準。2027年はベース半分、ベスト約4割、ワースト全量。" }, { "id": "lambda", "name": "Lambda", "fact": "約413億ドル、2034年まで、納入・受入後に課金", "method": "8年配分の年約52億ドルを基準。2027年はベース半分、ベスト約4割、ワースト全量。" }, { "id": "amd", "name": "AMD", "fact": "初期容量を全調達すると総支出200億ドル超、金額固定なし", "method": "ベースは総額240億を4年配分、ベストは200億を5年、ワーストは300億を3年。期間・総額とも分析上の仮定。" }, { "id": "tpu", "name": "追加TPU枠", "fact": "推定総額1,250〜1,500億ドル、2028〜31年に納入", "method": "ベースは総額1,375億の10%を2028年、20%を2029年に支払う。ベストは1,250億の10%・20%、ワーストは1,500億の20%・30%。納入期間と支払期間は同一とせず残額は2030年以降。" } ], "initialResults": { "base": { "rows": [ { "incrementalCashMargin": 0.4954347826086956, "additionalRevenue": 18.172964975641587, "cashNeutralRevenue": 58.17296497564159, "period": "2026年下期", "revenue": 40, "receipts": 36.050391304347826, "endingReceivables": 9.782608695652174, "namedCompute": 28.958100233100232, "extraCompute": 2.8958100233100232, "compute": 31.853910256410256, "sales": 8, "payroll": 1.5, "admin": 2.4, "interest": 1, "tax": 0.3, "costs": 45.053910256410255, "burn": 9.003518952062429, "funding": 0, "balance": 122.64748104793759 }, { "incrementalCashMargin": 0.6167123287671232, "additionalRevenue": 83.91351082907784, "cashNeutralRevenue": 193.91351082907784, "period": "2027年", "revenue": 110, "receipts": 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